ISIL's attempt to spill into Pakistan sets off warning bells

By Hasan Khan

An influx of more foreign militants will lead to more violence and will further destabilise life in the region, some observers say.

In the wake of news that the "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (ISIL) has dumped recruiting pamphlets in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan, observers and members of the public are urging civil society and the Pakistani government to keep ISIL from gaining a foothold in the tribal areas.

"If ISIL is able to carve out even a little niche in the north-west of Pakistan and south-east Afghanistan, it will be a formidable threat to regional peace," Dr. Khadim Hussain, a Peshawar-based analyst, told Central Asia Online.

ISIL pamphlets, urging Muslims to join their effort in establishing a supposed Islamic caliphate, have been spotted in parts of the border region, and stickers featuring the group's message in local languages have shown up. The move has alarmed residents and has analysts fearing that more violence and destabilisation will follow if a new wave of foreign militants comes.

The region already suffers from a sizable presence of militants from the former Soviet Union and Arab states.

The human and economic cost could far exceed that which Pakistan already suffered at the hands of al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorists during the past decade, Khadim said. Also of concern is the apparent intent of ISIL to want more than a platform for terrorism.

"This time around, they [foreign militants] appear to intend to move toward state control," Khadim said, referring to ISIL's track record of proclaiming itself the government of Syrian and Iraqi areas under its control.

ISIL could cost the country lives, money and its culture

If ISIL is allowed to sink its hooks into the tribal region, Pakistan could suffer around round of immense human and economic losses, analysts warn.

More than 50,000 Pakistanis ahve died and the country has lost US $102 billion (Rs. 10.4 trillion) from 2001 through 2014 so far in the war against terror, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan.

Already in Iraq and Syria, ISIL militants have shown that they have little regard for human life. ISIL has developed a reputation for, among other things, LINK mocking Islam, treating the elderly with disdain, oppressing religious minorities and recruiting children to fight.

From a human standpoint, analysts predict an upsurge in sectarianism, should ISIL infiltrate the area.

"If ISIL succeeds, then Pakistan shall be ready for bloody sectarian violence," Mansur Mehsud, a security analyst working for the Islamabad-based Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) Research Centre, said.

The terrorist group is capable of creating a civil war between Islamic sects as it has sought to do in Syria and Iraq, he said.

"ISIL would definitely declare war on [the most peaceful sects] if it succeeded in establishing itself in FATA and settled areas," Mehsud said. Zahid Hussain, author of The Scorpion's Tail: The Relentless Rise of Islamic Militants in Pakistan, echoed those concerns.

"The rise of ISIL ... could further fuel sectarian violence in Pakistan," he wrote in a recent news article.

ISIL has also been termed a "more lethal" militant group, intolerant of anyone who does not follow its ideology, Mehsud said. With its harsh treatment of everyone it considers an infidel, "[ISIL] would be a nightmare for Pakistan," which has a mix of Islamic sects, he said. Unique parts of Pakistan's culture – such as Pakhtunwali (the Pashtun moral code) – also will be destroyed if ISIL militants encroach in the border region, others say.

"ISIL means the rise of Salafist schools of thought, which will destroy our local social culture," Oun Abas Sahi, a South Punjab specialist on the militancy, said. ISIL specifically, and foreign militants in general, has no regard for local traditions, Khadim said in agreement.

'Turf war' among militants foreseen

Another troubling result of any inroads by ISIL into the tribal areas will be competition with al-Qaeda (AQ) for the support of local militants, observers predict.

"It [competition with AQ] might lead to a turf war between both terrorists syndicates, leading to serious security concerns," journalist and author Aqil Yusufzai said. Mehsud, though, predicted it would be difficult for ISIL to gain support in FATA or in the settled districts of Pakistan.

"The chances of ISIL's success in Pakistan are limited, as local militant groups would not like to work under foreign groups like ISIL or al-Qaeda," Mansur said. Foreign militants have lost much of their former appeal in Pakistan, Anwar Ali Bangash, an Islamabad-based journalist, said.

Foreign militants have a reputation for attacking vital state institutions in Pakistan and for brutally killing civilians and security officers, Bangash said, adding that such violence generates intense animosity toward the terrorists and makes it unlikely that many Pakistanis will give them the space to survive.