By CHARLES A. KUPCHAN
THE Egyptian military’s bloody crackdown on supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood is yet another sign of the dark side of the Arab awakening. Across the Middle East, glimmerings of democracy are being snuffed out by political turmoil and violence.
That reality requires a sobering course correction in American policy. Rather than viewing the end of autocracy’s monopoly as a ripe moment to spread democracy in the region, Washington should downsize its ambition and work with transitional governments to establish the foundations of responsible, even if not democratic, rule.
Ever since the Egyptian military seized power last month, the United States government, backed by much of the country’s foreign policy elite, has demanded the restoration of democratic rule. President Obama instructed Egypt’s generals “to move quickly and responsibly to return full authority back to a democratically elected civilian government.” The Republican senators John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina visited Cairo to press the new government to restore democratic rule and have called for cutting off aid if it doesn’t.
But while Washington must unequivocally condemn the violence unleashed by the Egyptian military, clamoring for a rapid return to democracy is misguided.
To be sure, the American creed favors the promotion of democracy, and democracies do have a track record of better behavior than autocracies. But the penchant for rushing transitional states to the ballot box often does more harm than good, producing dysfunctional and illiberal regimes. Egypt’s recently deposed president, Mohamed Morsi, may have been fairly elected, but he presided over the near collapse of the Egyptian state and ran roughshod over his political opponents.
Rather than cajoling Cairo to hold elections and threatening to suspend aid if it does not, Washington should press the current leadership to adhere to clear standards of responsible governance, including ending the violence and political repression, restoring the basic functions of the state, facilitating economic recovery, countering militant extremists and keeping the peace with Israel. At this fragile moment in Egypt’s political awakening, the performance of its government will be a more important determinant of its legitimacy and durability than whether it won an election.
More generally, Washington should back off from its zealous promotion of democracy in Egypt and the broader Middle East for three main reasons.
For starters, even if liberal democracies do tend to provide good governance at home and abroad, rapid transitions to democracy historically have had the opposite effect: disorder at home and instability beyond the countries’ borders. In nations that lack experience with constitutional constraints and democratic accountability, electoral victors usually embrace winner-take-all strategies; they shut out the opposition, govern as they see fit and unsettle their neighbors. In one case after another — Bosnia, Russia, Ukraine, Iraq, Egypt — newly democratic governments have demonized opponents and ruled with an iron fist.
Incremental change produces more durable results; liberal democracies must be constructed from the ground up. Constitutional constraints, judicial reform, political parties, economic privatization — these building blocks of democratic societies need time to take root. The West’s own experience provides ample evidence. England became a constitutional monarchy after the Glorious Revolution in 1688, but did not mature into a liberal democracy until the 20th century.
Moreover, transitions to democracy in the Middle East will be more perilous than those elsewhere because of factors unique to the region: the power of political Islam and the entrenched nature of sectarian and tribal loyalties.
Islam and democracy are by no means incompatible. However, religion and politics are intimately interwoven throughout the Middle East. Islamic tradition makes no distinction between mosque and state, helping Islamists win elections throughout the region. One result is a debilitating struggle between empowered Islamists and fractured secularists that is playing out in Egypt, Turkey, Tunisia and just about everywhere else.
Absent the Western tradition of separating the sacred from the secular — which came about only after the bloody wars of the Protestant Reformation — pitched battles over the role of Islam in politics will bedevil aspiring Middle East democracies for generations to come.
So, too, will sectarian and tribal politics make successful democratic transitions in the Middle East especially elusive. A sense of national belonging is the twin sister of democracy; nationalism is the social glue that makes consensual politics work. Egypt, like Turkey and Iran, is fortunate to have a strong national identity dating back centuries. But Egypt is nonetheless stumbling as it tries to put down robust democratic roots.
Social cohesion will be even harder to come by in many of the region’s other states — like Iraq, Syria and Lebanon — which are contrived nations cobbled together by departing colonial powers. They risk being split asunder by sectarian, ethnic and tribal cleavages.
Finally, Washington’s determined promotion of democracy compromises its credibility because doing so is often at odds with its own policies. Its closest allies in the Arab world, the Persian Gulf sheikdoms, are the region’s least democratic states. When Hamas won the Palestinian elections in 2006, America promptly sought to undermine the new government.
These departures from democratic principles are, as they should be, guided by concrete national interests. But as the Arab awakening unfolds, Washington’s leverage will further diminish unless its rhetoric catches up with its actions.
The United States should do what it can to shepherd the arrival of liberal democracy in Egypt and other parts of the Middle East. But the best way to do that is to go slow and help the region’s states build functioning and responsible governments. Democracy can wait.
Charles A. Kupchan is a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “No One’s World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global
Turn.”
Friday, August 16, 2013
Democracy in Egypt Can Wait
By CHARLES A. KUPCHAN
THE Egyptian military’s bloody crackdown on supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood is yet another sign of the dark side of the Arab awakening. Across the Middle East, glimmerings of democracy are being snuffed out by political turmoil and violence.
That reality requires a sobering course correction in American policy. Rather than viewing the end of autocracy’s monopoly as a ripe moment to spread democracy in the region, Washington should downsize its ambition and work with transitional governments to establish the foundations of responsible, even if not democratic, rule.
Ever since the Egyptian military seized power last month, the United States government, backed by much of the country’s foreign policy elite, has demanded the restoration of democratic rule. President Obama instructed Egypt’s generals “to move quickly and responsibly to return full authority back to a democratically elected civilian government.” The Republican senators John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina visited Cairo to press the new government to restore democratic rule and have called for cutting off aid if it doesn’t.
But while Washington must unequivocally condemn the violence unleashed by the Egyptian military, clamoring for a rapid return to democracy is misguided.
To be sure, the American creed favors the promotion of democracy, and democracies do have a track record of better behavior than autocracies. But the penchant for rushing transitional states to the ballot box often does more harm than good, producing dysfunctional and illiberal regimes. Egypt’s recently deposed president, Mohamed Morsi, may have been fairly elected, but he presided over the near collapse of the Egyptian state and ran roughshod over his political opponents.
Rather than cajoling Cairo to hold elections and threatening to suspend aid if it does not, Washington should press the current leadership to adhere to clear standards of responsible governance, including ending the violence and political repression, restoring the basic functions of the state, facilitating economic recovery, countering militant extremists and keeping the peace with Israel. At this fragile moment in Egypt’s political awakening, the performance of its government will be a more important determinant of its legitimacy and durability than whether it won an election.
More generally, Washington should back off from its zealous promotion of democracy in Egypt and the broader Middle East for three main reasons.
For starters, even if liberal democracies do tend to provide good governance at home and abroad, rapid transitions to democracy historically have had the opposite effect: disorder at home and instability beyond the countries’ borders. In nations that lack experience with constitutional constraints and democratic accountability, electoral victors usually embrace winner-take-all strategies; they shut out the opposition, govern as they see fit and unsettle their neighbors. In one case after another — Bosnia, Russia, Ukraine, Iraq, Egypt — newly democratic governments have demonized opponents and ruled with an iron fist.
Incremental change produces more durable results; liberal democracies must be constructed from the ground up. Constitutional constraints, judicial reform, political parties, economic privatization — these building blocks of democratic societies need time to take root. The West’s own experience provides ample evidence. England became a constitutional monarchy after the Glorious Revolution in 1688, but did not mature into a liberal democracy until the 20th century.
Moreover, transitions to democracy in the Middle East will be more perilous than those elsewhere because of factors unique to the region: the power of political Islam and the entrenched nature of sectarian and tribal loyalties.
Islam and democracy are by no means incompatible. However, religion and politics are intimately interwoven throughout the Middle East. Islamic tradition makes no distinction between mosque and state, helping Islamists win elections throughout the region. One result is a debilitating struggle between empowered Islamists and fractured secularists that is playing out in Egypt, Turkey, Tunisia and just about everywhere else.
Absent the Western tradition of separating the sacred from the secular — which came about only after the bloody wars of the Protestant Reformation — pitched battles over the role of Islam in politics will bedevil aspiring Middle East democracies for generations to come.
So, too, will sectarian and tribal politics make successful democratic transitions in the Middle East especially elusive. A sense of national belonging is the twin sister of democracy; nationalism is the social glue that makes consensual politics work. Egypt, like Turkey and Iran, is fortunate to have a strong national identity dating back centuries. But Egypt is nonetheless stumbling as it tries to put down robust democratic roots.
Social cohesion will be even harder to come by in many of the region’s other states — like Iraq, Syria and Lebanon — which are contrived nations cobbled together by departing colonial powers. They risk being split asunder by sectarian, ethnic and tribal cleavages.
Finally, Washington’s determined promotion of democracy compromises its credibility because doing so is often at odds with its own policies. Its closest allies in the Arab world, the Persian Gulf sheikdoms, are the region’s least democratic states. When Hamas won the Palestinian elections in 2006, America promptly sought to undermine the new government.
These departures from democratic principles are, as they should be, guided by concrete national interests. But as the Arab awakening unfolds, Washington’s leverage will further diminish unless its rhetoric catches up with its actions.
The United States should do what it can to shepherd the arrival of liberal democracy in Egypt and other parts of the Middle East. But the best way to do that is to go slow and help the region’s states build functioning and responsible governments. Democracy can wait.
Charles A. Kupchan is a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “No One’s World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global
Turn.”
Poverty in the Kingdom Saudi Arabia
By: Ahmad Dohman
It is not easy for Saudi Arabia to acknowledge that poverty exists in its society. The third richest country in the world — known for its wealth of oil and natural resources, which fills its coffers with money — is not expected to accept its growing poverty crisis. The stereotypical image of Saudis places them nowhere near poverty. It portrays them as rich individuals that squander their money to fulfill their desire to consume unnecessary goods and wants. One cannot imagine a poor Saudi citizen living in a modest home and spending three-quarters of his salary to secure basic needs of food and water. Saudi Arabia is a financially stable country that grants a lot of donations and aid to surrounding countries. It also supports global development funds and has its doors open to millions of workers. That said, how could this country leave its own people destitute at home?Acknowledging the presence of poor citizens
It took the kingdom quite a long time to concede to the presence of poor people. Perhaps the openness of Saudis to the virtual world and social networking sites pushed this reality to the forefront of the minds of officials and people. Many short films, videos and pictures exposed cases of poverty and introduced it to the government and citizens. These films discussed the suffering of families living under the poverty line, and showed men discussing the details of their miserable lives characterized by their low-incomes, which sometimes does not exceed $50 per month. One Saudi discussed how he is supporting his family, which is made up of eight married and unemployed men, while another spoke about how he was arbitrarily fired and posted his appeal to the king on YouTube.
What went wrong and how did the situation in the kingdom deteriorate to that extent?
The absence of accurate figures and official statistics for a long time made the issue of poverty in Saudi Arabia highly debatable. Everyone had a say on this issue, yet no one was able to propose a solution to uproot it. So far, no one has acknowledged the fact that the crisis is snowballing and that poverty is affecting the healthy environment that the kingdom wants to secure for its citizens. According to this year’s statistics, the government announced that the social security services have benefited around 800,000 cases. A case is a unit indicating one Saudi family, with the average family size in Saudi Arabia being between six to eight people. The Ministry of Social Affairs announced later on that its services would include families of up to 15 persons. Hence, according to calculations based on the aforementioned data, the number of poor people in Saudi Arabia exceeds 6 million out of 20 million, which is the estimated population of Saudi Arabia. The increase in the number of beneficiaries from social security services indicates a decrease in the size of the middle class, thus turning the latter into lower class.
Link to the US Federal Reserve
The Saudi economy suffers from being associated with the policies of the US Federal Reserve, which has suffered from a number of disadvantages in the past ten years. This link made the Saudi economy prone to massive inflation and led to a decline in the purchasing power of the Saudi riyal. This is despite the support provided by the government for basic goods and materials. The rapid increase in commodity prices did not go hand-in-hand with an increase in salaries, which led many families to suffer from the high cost of living. The society attempted to deal with this situation by pressuring the owners of companies and wealthy men to stop the increase in food costs, by boycotting them. The recent campaign was to boycott the purchase of chicken after the price doubled.
High cost of living and housing crisis
In addition to the high cost of basic needs, the recent period witnessed a housing crisis and an increase in the cost of rents. Statistics have shown that 80% of Saudis live in rented houses, and owning a house has become a dream for Saudis due to the rise in land prices and construction costs, which have reached unimaginable rates. This rise further pressured citizens earning minimum wage (which does not exceed $600 a month), who are paying for food, water and housing for families that are made up of at least six members.
Unemployment, which has spread throughout Saudi society and plagued a large segment of its citizens due to the presence of a foreign workforce, has led to further worsening the issue of poverty. The concept of family in Saudi Arabia falls within the scope of the extended family, in other words the children after marriage continue to live with their families.
What is the strategy?
The kingdom attempted to set a strategy to fight poverty. According to the minister of social affairs, the present plan is intended to treat corruption and its four main causes:
1. Finding a solution to unemployment that led Saudi Arabia rank second after Iraq with the highest unemployment rate in the Middle East and the Arab world.
2. Finding a solution to the housing crisis and the rising cost of rents.
3. Finding a solution to the issue of minimum wages and the rising cost of living.
4. Accelerating the implementation of development projects and balanced development projects between different areas.
Pumping money into the economy is not a radical solution to the issue of poverty; it is rather a temporary numbing of the situation that will make individuals further depend on aid. It would have been better to treat the roots of the crisis, instead of focusing on treating the surface of the crisis by distributing food supplies and depending on charity aid. The government could have provided the needy with food stamps, which would allow them to buy food at reasonable prices in shopping centers.
Jazan is the poorest city in Saudi Arabia. It is situated in the south of the country and the number of families suffering from extreme poverty amounts to 19,700. Al-Qasim is the least poor area in Saudi Arabia. According to the anti-poverty national strategy “the percentage of families living under poverty line in Jazan is 34%.” Najranin in southern Saudi Arabia is the second poorest area with 24.53% of its families living under poverty line, followed by al-Madinah, situated in the west, with 24.07%, and the area situated at the northern border with 23%.
Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/culture/2012/10/poverty-rising-issue-in-saudi-society.html#ixzz2cC3KtJma
Journalists in Bahrain jailed in attempt to keep protests quiet
The country’s renowned wealth overshadows those living in poverty.It is not easy for Saudi Arabia to acknowledge that poverty exists in its society. The third richest country in the world — known for its wealth of oil and natural resources, which fills its coffers with money — is not expected to accept its growing poverty crisis. The stereotypical image of Saudis places them nowhere near poverty. It portrays them as rich individuals that squander their money to fulfill their desire to consume unnecessary goods and wants. One cannot imagine a poor Saudi citizen living in a modest home and spending three-quarters of his salary to secure basic needs of food and water. Saudi Arabia is a financially stable country that grants a lot of donations and aid to surrounding countries. It also supports global development funds and has its doors open to millions of workers. That said, how could this country leave its own people destitute at home?Acknowledging the presence of poor citizens It took the kingdom quite a long time to concede to the presence of poor people. Perhaps the openness of Saudis to the virtual world and social networking sites pushed this reality to the forefront of the minds of officials and people. Many short films, videos and pictures exposed cases of poverty and introduced it to the government and citizens. These films discussed the suffering of families living under the poverty line, and showed men discussing the details of their miserable lives characterized by their low-incomes, which sometimes does not exceed $50 per month. One Saudi discussed how he is supporting his family, which is made up of eight married and unemployed men, while another spoke about how he was arbitrarily fired and posted his appeal to the king on YouTube. What went wrong and how did the situation in the kingdom deteriorate to that extent? The absence of accurate figures and official statistics for a long time made the issue of poverty in Saudi Arabia highly debatable. Everyone had a say on this issue, yet no one was able to propose a solution to uproot it. So far, no one has acknowledged the fact that the crisis is snowballing and that poverty is affecting the healthy environment that the kingdom wants to secure for its citizens. According to this year’s statistics, the government announced that the social security services have benefited around 800,000 cases. A case is a unit indicating one Saudi family, with the average family size in Saudi Arabia being between six to eight people. The Ministry of Social Affairs announced later on that its services would include families of up to 15 persons. Hence, according to calculations based on the aforementioned data, the number of poor people in Saudi Arabia exceeds 6 million out of 20 million, which is the estimated population of Saudi Arabia. The increase in the number of beneficiaries from social security services indicates a decrease in the size of the middle class, thus turning the latter into lower class. Link to the US Federal Reserve The Saudi economy suffers from being associated with the policies of the US Federal Reserve, which has suffered from a number of disadvantages in the past ten years. This link made the Saudi economy prone to massive inflation and led to a decline in the purchasing power of the Saudi riyal. This is despite the support provided by the government for basic goods and materials. The rapid increase in commodity prices did not go hand-in-hand with an increase in salaries, which led many families to suffer from the high cost of living. The society attempted to deal with this situation by pressuring the owners of companies and wealthy men to stop the increase in food costs, by boycotting them. The recent campaign was to boycott the purchase of chicken after the price doubled. High cost of living and housing crisis In addition to the high cost of basic needs, the recent period witnessed a housing crisis and an increase in the cost of rents. Statistics have shown that 80% of Saudis live in rented houses, and owning a house has become a dream for Saudis due to the rise in land prices and construction costs, which have reached unimaginable rates. This rise further pressured citizens earning minimum wage (which does not exceed $600 a month), who are paying for food, water and housing for families that are made up of at least six members. Unemployment, which has spread throughout Saudi society and plagued a large segment of its citizens due to the presence of a foreign workforce, has led to further worsening the issue of poverty. The concept of family in Saudi Arabia falls within the scope of the extended family, in other words the children after marriage continue to live with their families. What is the strategy? The kingdom attempted to set a strategy to fight poverty. According to the minister of social affairs, the present plan is intended to treat corruption and its four main causes: 1. Finding a solution to unemployment that led Saudi Arabia rank second after Iraq with the highest unemployment rate in the Middle East and the Arab world. 2. Finding a solution to the housing crisis and the rising cost of rents. 3. Finding a solution to the issue of minimum wages and the rising cost of living. 4. Accelerating the implementation of development projects and balanced development projects between different areas. Pumping money into the economy is not a radical solution to the issue of poverty; it is rather a temporary numbing of the situation that will make individuals further depend on aid. It would have been better to treat the roots of the crisis, instead of focusing on treating the surface of the crisis by distributing food supplies and depending on charity aid. The government could have provided the needy with food stamps, which would allow them to buy food at reasonable prices in shopping centers. Jazan is the poorest city in Saudi Arabia. It is situated in the south of the country and the number of families suffering from extreme poverty amounts to 19,700. Al-Qasim is the least poor area in Saudi Arabia. According to the anti-poverty national strategy “the percentage of families living under poverty line in Jazan is 34%.” Najranin in southern Saudi Arabia is the second poorest area with 24.53% of its families living under poverty line, followed by al-Madinah, situated in the west, with 24.07%, and the area situated at the northern border with 23%.
Bahrain police, Shiite protesters clash in villages
Protesters calling for the overthrow of Bahrain's ruling Sunni monarchy clashed with police across several Shiite villages overnight, witnesses said Friday without reporting casualties.
Bahrain detention center riot leaves 40 hurt
At least 40 Bahraini prisoners were hurt on Friday when security forces used batons, tear gas, pepper spray and stun grenades against inmates protesting over their conditions, an activist said.
The Interior Ministry said security forces had restored order after a number of detainees rioted.
"They tried to break the doors, the police interfered and restored order," a tweet by the ministry said.
Sayed al Muhafada of the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights said he had received a call from inside the prison telling him that around 100 prisoners, most held for terrorism offences, were protesting over being deprived of family visits and other grievances.
The small Gulf Arab state and Western ally, which hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet, has been buffeted by bouts of unrest since February 2011 when an uprising led by members of the Shi'ite majority demanded the Sunni al-Khalifa dynasty give up power.
The authorities crushed the revolt but protests and clashes have persisted despite continuing talks between government and opposition, leaving Bahrain on the front line of a tussle for regional influence between Shi'ite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia.
ANP leader Najma Hanif gunned down in Peshawar
Unknown miscreants gunned down Awami National Party (ANP) leader Najma Hanif after breaking into her house in Peshawar late on Friday night.
She was gunned down at her residence in phase one of the upscale Hyatabad neighbourhood of Peshawar.
Police sources told Dawn.com that unknown gunmen opened fire at Najma Hanif after breaking into her home just before midnight on Friday. The attackers managed to escape the site unhurt and unidentified, they added.
In-charge of police unit at Hyatabad Medical Complex, Ismail khan has confirmed that Najma Hanif was hit in the head and face and was received dead at the hospital.
It is pertinent to mention that her husband Hanif Jadoon, who also was an ANP leader, was killed along with his son and guard in a suicide bomb attack in July 2011.
The ANP leader was a candidate for a provincial assembly seat reserved for women in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Her body has been sent to her native town in Swabi district.
ANP chief Asfandyar Wali has condemned the brutal killing saying sacrifices of Najma’s family will always be remembered.
President Zardari lauds Zamurd for his courage
http://mediacellppp.wordpress.com/
President Asif Ali Zardari has lauded the courage of PPP leader Zamurd Khan who, risking his own life, helped law enforcing agencies get hold of the armed man in Islamabad. The President also appreciated the role of security agencies who handled the situation in a discreet manner and averted any mishap.
Protest camp for Baloch missing persons set ablaze
http://balochwarna.com/The hunger strike camp set up outside Quetta Press Club by Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP) for recovery of missing persons was set on fire by unidentified people on night between Wednesday and Thursday. VBMP, a local organisation formed by relatives of missing persons, is striving hard for the recovery of their beloved ones for over last three years in Quetta, Karachi and Islamabad. Unidentified people set the camp on fire and soon it was reduced to ashes. When Vice Chairman of VBMP Mama Abdul Qadir was contacted, he regretted that the right of peaceful protest from relatives of missing persons was also being snatched. “I don’t know who have actually burnt the camp but we have been constantly receiving threats and warnings from government functionaries to dismantle the camp or face consequences,” he added. It may be mentioned here that a son of Mama Abdul Qadir Baloch named Jalil Reki, who was leader of Baloch Republican Party, was abducted in 2009 allegedly by government functionaries from his Sariab Road residence and later his tortured and bullet-riddled body was found in Kech district in 2011. “I and my fellow protesters have received death threats but we will never end our peaceful protest for the recovery of our beloved ones who are being assaulted in torture cells,” Qadir Baloch said, adding that chief justice of Supreme Court who is hearing a case in Quetta had taken notice of burning of strike camp. “We have hopes that CJ would do something for recovery of missing persons but so far his efforts are not yielding results,” he said He appealed chief Justice and other humanitarian organisations to take notice of brutalities allegedly committed by government functionaries against innocent Balochs in the province.
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India's unfair obsession with lighter skin
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Zamurad Khan’s heroics save the day
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