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Clear majority in favour of Scottish independence, poll shows



Ashley Cowburn
@ashcowburn

Scottish public have shifted even further towards supporting an independent Scotland, with record numbers now saying they would vote Yes’ A clear majority of people would back Scottish independence in a fresh referendum, according to a new poll showing a record level of support.
The survey by pollsters Ipsos MORI found that 58 per cent of those who said they were likely to vote in an independence referendum would vote Yes while 42 per cent would opt for No.
Boris Johnson has consistently rejected calls from the SNP to grant the Scottish Parliament the powers to hold a second vote, insisting in January that it would “continue the political stagnation that Scotland has seen for the last decade”.
The prime minister has also said the 2014 referendum, in which Scots voted against independence by 55-44 per cent, was a “once in a generation” ballot.
However, the poll, published on Wednesday, also found almost two-thirds of Scots believe the UK government should allow an independence referendum to be held within the next five years if Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP win a majority of seats in next year’s Holyrood election.
On support for Mr Johnson, it suggested three quarters (76 per cent) are dissatisfied with the way he is doing his job as prime minister, with just 19 per cent satisfied.Responding to the survey, the SNP’s deputy leader Keith Brown said: “This is a landmark poll which shows that independence has now become the settled will of the majority of people in Scotland”.
He added: “Already, the Westminster wall of opposition to a referendum has started to crumble, with private acknowledgement that a result like this in next year’s election would have to lead to a referendum, and this poll will only solidify that growing view.
“The SNP takes absolutely nothing for granted and we will redouble our efforts between now and next year’s election to retain the trust of the people. But it is clearer than ever that Scotland’s future lies as an independent country.”
Emily Gray, the managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “Our latest poll will put a spring in the step of nationalists but makes grim reading for unionists. The Scottish public have shifted even further towards supporting an independent Scotland, with record numbers now saying they would vote Yes.
“Of course, we are still a long way out from next May’s Holyrood election, but SNP support currently looks very strong, buoyed by Nicola Sturgeon’s satisfaction ratings among Scottish voters. “Our poll suggests that there will be significant public pressure for the UK government to transfer powers to the Scottish Parliament to hold a second independence referendum if the SNP win a majority at next year’s Holyrood election.” Mr Johnson’s official spokesman said: “The issue of independence was settled when the Scottish people voted decisively to remain part of a strong United Kingdom. It was a once in a generation vote and it must be respected. “The pandemic response has shown the great benefit of having a strong United Kingdom. It allowed us to put in place unprecedented levels of support for Scottish jobs and Scottish industry.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scotland-indy-ref-nicola-sturgeon-majority-boris-johnson-b1036611.html

بو لو بولو جيوۓ بلاول - بلاول بھٹو زرداری

Environmental crisis in Pakistan: corruption, carbon emissions and capitalism

 By Arsalan Ghani

Pakistan is being rocked by freak weather events and environmental crises. This article discusses the impact of these disasters, their causes, the failure of the state and the capitalist system to deal with them, and the way forward.

The recent monsoon rainfall in Pakistan exposed the corruption and impotence of the regime in all provinces of the country. The city of Karachi – considered the most developed in Pakistan, owing to vast industrialisation and high commercial activity – was totally flooded, as were all major urban centres. August rainfall in Karachi averages at 68mm. This year, it was 587.5mm, as reported by the country’s meteorological authority – the highest in the last 90 years.

Extreme weather events in Pakistan are not a recent phenomenon, but a trend observed over several years due to global climate change impacting the country. However, there are additional, localised environmental impacts from heavy industrial emissions and irresponsible waste disposal.

Torrential rainfall and the destruction it causes

After flowing through Karachi, the rainwater remained stagnant for many days. A video has gone viral showing a man diving from the third floor of his house and swimming in the flooded street. Canoes and boats are filling the streets instead of cars. Some people have compared Karachi to Venice. Over three days in August, 90 people died as a result of these monsoon rains in Karachi alone. A similar situation was observed in Lahore. Although Lahore experiences rain disasters quite often in its poor neighbourhoods, this year’s rain was especially severe. Other industrial cities like Faisalabad Gujranwala, Sialkot and Rawalpindi were also affected.

These downpours acutely affect poor, working-class areas, where houses are shoddily built, often using cheap construction materials. In a lot of urban areas, mud is used to construct walls instead of cement. In tall buildings with numerous flats, landlords use low-quality materials. Karachi experienced numerous building collapses in the rain, killing and injuring hundreds of people.

This year, the monsoon rains were qualitatively different from the past. The destruction extended to upper-middle-class neighbourhoods, who also protested against the government. The burgers (as the petit-bourgeoisie is usually called in Pakistan) organised protests in front of government offices. A middle-aged woman burger reportedly shouted that “we are not the people of Surjani town (a poor neighbourhood of Karachi), we are the people of the Defence Housing Area (a more affluent neighbourhood). How dare the government ignore us?” This middle-class anger also demonstrates class hatred against the big bourgeoisie, amidst a total failure of the system.

Meanwhile, the poor and working-class people know that the government will never listen to them, even if they protest. Furthermore, aside from the continuous betrayals of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP: the main workers’ party) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM: a secular liberal party), who have been leading the province for many decades, they are also corrupt to the core. All funds meant to maintain public infrastructure – including roads, canals, sewerage and environmental protections – are drained into the pockets of politicians and bureaucrats.

The response of the state

The state, as usual, totally ignored the catastrophe brought about by the monsoon rain. State officials and bureaucrats ran away from their offices and disappeared to escape the wrath of the public. They know that it is impossible for them to do anything for the people in these hard times, given the limited resources available and the corrupt state bureaucracy.

Recently, Prime Minister Imran Khan announced a package of about one trillion rupees (6 billion USD) to support the Karachi Uplift Plan. This sounded like good news for the corrupt politicians and government bureaucrats, but the Pakistan Army Chief beat them to the punch by claiming the army would be rebuilding Karachi, thus laying hands on the loot contained in this ‘support package’. Later on, it was revealed that there is no money of this sum available within the central government, and it was just a hollow promise – in other words, business as usual.

This did not stop the Army Chief however, who started his campaign to ‘rebuild’ Karachi by meeting business leaders and negotiating compensations for their losses. To the poor, he announced their homes would be bulldozed to extend canals and rivers, where poor neighbourhoods are often founded due to the cheap land.

Extreme weather events

With floods in Karachi and Lahore, avalanches in the northern regions and Kashmir, droughts in the Sindh areas and high summer temperatures in Sindh and Balochistan, extreme weather is engulfing Pakistan, with the number of such events increasing every year.

The world's highest temperature since the start of the 20th century (53.5 degrees centigrade) was recorded in Turbat in 2017. The famous heatwave in May 2019 that spread across the subcontinent also killed many people in Pakistan. Most people who died from extreme heat were poor and working class. Workers are not provided with any leave from work in the case of extreme heat, and nor are they provided adequately drinking water. As a result, most of them are dehydrated, and can suffer from medical complications that lead to death.

According to the latest figures, the proportion of workers who will die annually due to extreme heat in Pakistan is set to increase by around 200 per 100,000, as compared to an average global increase of 73. A researcher from the University of California said that: “The data show that poor communities don’t have the means to adapt, so they end up dying from warming at much higher rates.” This is entirely true: it is only the rich who can adapt to adverse weather conditions, while the poor suffer the effects of climate change.

The pollution menace

 at number 12.

With the recent opening of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC: a series of massive infrastructure projects funded by China), emissions from vehicles have increased tenfold. Furthermore, new, downstream manufacturing industries are being set up across the country in major industrial hubs and cities, adding to the industrial pollution. Industries are deregulated in Pakistan, and are free to pollute air and water unchecked by any government agency. Furthermore, the inability of the government to invest in public transport, yet extending state car financing schemes to the people, has pushed up the number of vehicles on roads. Almost all of these are heavily polluting, as there is no standardised inspection or testing system in place.

The issue of smog has also become significant in Pakistan, particularly in the Punjab region. Farmers (in the absence of any suitable farm clearing systems or machinery) burn their left-over crops to prepare the field for the next season. This creates massive smog that resides in neighbouring villages, towns and cities. During a smog, a day of breathing the air is akin to smoking 200 to 300 cigarettes. Last year, a number of people died, and many were hospitalised because of smog that spread around the major cities in Lahore, Gujranwala and Faisalabad.

Fossil fuel dependency

Pakistan is heavily dependent on fossil fuel to cater for its energy needs. 30 percent of the country’s imports are fossil fuels. All the government’s efforts to decarbonise the energy sector are in vain. Whenever any government body starts a clean energy programme, it becomes bogged down in corruption and immediately halted. Most of the electricity generated in Pakistan uses fossil fuel resources. All logistical and transport vehicles – including trains, busses and trucks – are running on heavy pollution grade fuels.

Petrol and other fuels sold throughout the country’s gas stations are adulterated with cheap kerosene. Gas stations are usually subcontracted to local capitalists. To increase profits, they mix the low-grade kerosene oil with petrol and diesel. This practice not only decreases fuel efficiency but also increases toxic pollution through vehicle exhausts and has a detrimental impact on vehicle engine wear. There are occasional spot checks in gas stations by the state authorities or by the agents of multinational oil companies. However, under conditions of rampant corruption, the inspectors never bother to report any adulterations. Cases are only reported when the bribe money is either insufficient or unpaid.

For many decades, no investment was made to modernise or decarbonise the rail infrastructure and train engines, resulting in massive emissions. Furthermore, the country’s logistic and supply chain system is heavily dependent upon trucks and tankers on roads. The vast majority of trucks and tankers running in the country are in appalling condition, with a low level of maintenance, thereby heavily polluting the environment. The case is similar with vehicles used in the construction of roads and buildings.

Three-wheeler rickshaws, which are used as a taxi service in urban areas, are not only contributing to air pollution, but also noise pollution. Although the government has taken steps to replace petrol or gas three-wheeler rickshaws with electric ones, many are still running on fossil fuels. And with the introduction of services such as Uber in major cities across the country, the roads are jam packed with polluting vehicles, neutralising all previous efforts to electrify the three-wheelers.

Industrial waste and the poisoning of rivers

Apart from air pollution, Pakistan is also famous for polluting its rivers. Almost all factories dispose of their untreated wet waste in canals and rivers. One report states that only 8 percent of the total public wastewater and 1 percent of industrial waste is treated before it is thrown into rivers.

Hardly any environmental laws are followed by the manufacturing industry. Polluted rivers are poisoning people from rural communities, who use water from canals and rivers for their daily needs, including drinking. Rivers have become toxic: filled with carcinogens, and beyond safe limits for metals like arsenic, lead, cadmium, chromium etc. Almost all river fish are toxic and contain carcinogens and dangerous chemicals, which ultimately end up in the human food chain.

Textiles is one of the largest manufacturing sectors in Pakistan, and there are significant outflows of wet waste from textile factories, particularly for dyeing and printing. Due to the high cost of installing and operating waste treatment plants, the factories do not bother setting them up. In cases where there are treatment plants installed, they are often kept non-operational as their purpose is to show international buyers how seriously the bosses take the environment.

Leather tanning is also among the most-polluting sectors in Pakistan. Tannery chemicals are manufactured in Europe but used in developing countries. They are highly toxic and have caused cancer among tannery workers, and as well as in the local neighbourhoods that are exposed to the waste products discharging from the factories.

Poisonous agriculture sprays are another menace. Numerous cancers, and lung and liver diseases are widespread in agricultural villages in Punjab and Sindh. The government is incapable of controlling the spray of poisonous pesticides in farms. Almost all of these pesticides are from multinational companies such as Bayer, Sandoz, BASF, Clariant, ICI and Syngenta.

With the advent of the CPEC, a lot of factories are being set up around urban cities, disregarding all environmental regulations. This has pushed up air and water pollution in all major urban centres and surroundings beyond safe limits. There has been a mushrooming of polluting factories, to which the government turns a blind eye.

Drought and water scarcity in Pakistan: the profiteering water mafia

Drought affects the southern parts of Pakistan, especially in the Sindh and Balochistan provinces. Hundreds of people die due to drought, and thousands become sick due to dehydration and malnutrition. The government doesn’t build water infrastructure in towns and villages, meaning people in drought-affected provinces are heavily reliant upon the private tanker mafia who operate with impunity. They sell water at a high price to towns and urban neighbourhoods. Only the middle-class and wealthy people can afford to buy water from tankers for their daily use. The poor have to travel long distances to fetch water.

The people of Karachi, despite living in a coastal city, are constantly threatened with water scarcity, and the local water tanker mafia is turning over billions of rupees. State officials and politicians are involved in this heinous business, which is further discouraging investment in the water supply infrastructure.

The bottled water mafia is another problem the country has faced in the last two decades. Multinational companies that have invested in this space are making astronomical profits out of plain water. According to a report by the Ministry of Science and Technology, 12 brands of bottled water are considered unsafe to drink. They contain dangerous and toxic chemicals that damage human organs such as the kidneys and liver. There are still a lot of bottled water brands operating in Pakistan outside the law. Rather than installing clean drinking water plants throughout the country and ensuring every house has access to clean water, the government decided to develop its own bottled water brand and sell it to the people.

Failure of the state

The state is failing on all fronts in ensuring a clean environment in Pakistan. On coming to power, the current prime minister announced that 10 billion trees would be planted in the country. However, just two years later, the project was riddled with corruption. Illegal logging is rife in the northern areas. Places considered forests decades ago are now deserted. Already, the country is branded “forest poor” by the WWF, meaning trees cover less than 6 percent of the country. Illegal loggers in the timber mafia are operating with impunity in cahoots with local police, the army and politicians, contributing to massive deforestation. According to a 2019 World Bank report, Pakistan loses 27,000 hectares of forest area annually. A reforestation drive under a corrupt regime that is incapable of controlling illegal logging is fruitless. The timber mafia will go to any lengths to cut trees to boost their profits. The state cannot provide sustainable energy resources to homes, and as a result, people are still using wood for cooking fires.

According to 2018 data, 1.2 million trees were destroyed by forest fires in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province. Often, these fires are man-made and started to conceal illegal logging. These fires not only kill people and burn houses, but also destroy biodiversity.

The government has formed countless ministries, departments, and special action groups for addressing the environment and climate change, but still the situation is getting worse every year. Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing annually at high levels.

Pakistan emissions Image Government of Pakistan

The capitalists have no interest in curbing environmental degradation in Pakistan. When extreme weather events occur, they and their businesses remain safe. They have air conditioned houses, offices and cars where they spend all of their time. Furthermore, they are well hydrated with drinks and fruits during hot scorching summers, and have central heating to keep themselves warm during cold winters. During heavy rainfall, their houses and localities are safe from floods. Large landowners in Punjab and Sindh are even involved, alongside state officials, in breaking river banks and allowing water to flow toward poor villages. They save their lands in this process at the cost of the lives, houses and valuables of poor people.

Countless NGO and international development organisations are doling out millions of dollars to address the environmental situation in Pakistan. The majority of this money goes into churning out countless, useless climate reports, without presenting any credible solutions.

Some NGOs believe that we can address these issues by appealing to capitalists and the corrupt state. Meanwhile, others are of the view that we should focus on individual and isolated actions to make a gradual impact, and wait for people to follow this example. Slogans emerge such as: “go vegan”, “plant trees in your gardens”, “turn off your engine at the red traffic light”, “don’t leave the taps running” etc. But neither appealing to shameless capitalists and politicians, nor individual actions can save the country from environmental disasters. A small action of a large corporation to destroy the environment can negate individual efforts by thousands of people to save it.

Capitalism, imperialism and the way forward

Environmental and climate catastrophes are killing more people than the coronavirus in Pakistan. According to official estimates, 128,000 are killed annually in Pakistan due to the effects of climate change. However, the real figure is much higher. Under capitalism, large businesses and their stooges in the state apparatus decide the fate of the environment. CEOs decide what is to be produced, and in what quantities, so as to maximise profits, disregarding environmental destruction, even building obsolescence into products to increase sales.

Global statistics show that the top 10 percent of the world’s wealthiest people account for half of greenhouse gas emissions, while the bottom 50 percent of the population account for just a tenth. Emission inequality is inherent within capitalism. Multinational corporations have set up polluting factories and plants in Pakistan. This includes industries such as chemical, food processing, energy, transport and building and construction. These corporations dole out massive bribes to state officials and politicians and are given a blank cheque when it comes to emissions.

Pakistan has the potential to decarbonise its energy sector fully. It has a vast amount of water reservoirs on which hydroelectric dams could be built. The country has the highest number of days of sunshine, which can be harnessed through solar technologies. Furthermore, supplying clean and decarbonised electricity through the grid can further decarbonise other sectors such as transport, household energy, industry, and agriculture. However, the country is heavily importing fossil fuels and burning it inefficiently in households, vehicles, industrial boilers, electricity generators, railway engines, construction machinery and so on.

And there are other scandals besides emissions. For example, a toxic gas leak in an industrial centre of Karachi in February 2020 killed 14 and made hundreds of people sick with long-term complications. A month later, a poisonous chlorine gas leak in the Engro Polymer and Chemicals company in Karachi hospitalised more than 70 people. The capitalists often bribe the media and state authorities to stay silent about incidents such as these.

There are abundant natural resources, and technology and expertise available to resolve all of the problems described above. But the capitalist system is posing a significant barrier. The big, polluting businesses are privately owned, and ordinary people have no power to decide how production is managed.

As long as there is a capitalist system in Pakistan, the problems facing the environment cannot be addressed. We need to overturn the capitalist system of profit production in favour of a rational plan of production, managed by the working class, under a socialist society, to protect and preserve the environment.

http://www.marxist.com/environmental-crisis-in-pakistan-corruption-carbon-emissions-and-capitalism.htm

Pakistan is hoodwinking the world on terror funding. FATF grey list needs to go darker

PRADEEP SINGH GAUTAM 
Pakistan is aware of the dilemma FATF faces, and is using it to its advantage.

After being deferred twice due to Covid-19, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) plenary meeting is now scheduled for 21-23 October 2020. Leading up to this plenary meet one of its constituent bodies, the Asia Pacific Group, met to review the pending cases, like that of Pakistan, pertaining to its jurisdiction. As if on cue, there was news of Pakistan’s vigorous efforts at passing new laws in compliance of its Anti-Money Laundering/ Countering Financing of Terror (AML/CFT) obligations. Parallelly, there is increased speculation about whether Pakistan would be “black listed” or if it would remain on the “grey list” or manage to revert to the so-called “white list”.

This sequence of events has been continuing for nearly two years now, since Pakistan regressed to its “grey list” position in June 2018. As Pakistan continues to fail to meet the successive deadlines set by the FATF, the threats from the organisation are becoming shriller and, in response, so are protestations from Islamabad.

Is there a political cost?

The case of Pakistan offers a great vantage point in appreciating the challenges faced by the FATF regime. Pakistan has been in and out of the grey list more than once. Having faced such close scrutiny, it has avoided effective implementation of the recommendations of the FATF on the one hand and also not being put on black list on the other.
Countries falling in “grey list” technically indicate that these jurisdictions have strategic deficiencies in their AML/CFT regime and they are considered for more regular monitoring. It also indicates that they have committed to remove such deficiencies in a time-bound manner. In contrast, countries in the “black list” are those that have been reported for enhanced due diligence. Generally, the black list comprises non-cooperative jurisdictions, which do not commit to improve upon the strategic deficiencies in their AML/CFT regime. Pakistan has undergone full mutual evaluation twice: the first was in 2009 and latest in 2019. Many of the AML/CFT risks flagged in both these Mutual Evaluation Reports (MER) are identical but MER-2019 is even more damning with Pakistan being non-complaint on 27 out of 40 Recommendations. The question that arises is: how did it get out of the grey list in 2015 and why did it re-enter in 2018? Did it substantially comply with FATF Recommendations from 2015-18? If yes, then why did it re-enter the grey list in 2018? If not, how did it come out in 2015?
Apart from many other international terrorists historically living in or functioning from Pakistan, Hafiz Muhammad Saeed and his associates were put on UNSCR 1267 sanctions list as on 10 December 2008, vide UNSCR 1822 (2008). But as reported in Dawn on 25 January 2015, just a month before Pakistan was taken off the grey list, Saeed had publicly “clarified” that these sanctions had been going on for the last six years and there was nothing serious about them, and that he would continue his activities.
Thus, Pakistan got out of the grey list by adopting some legal measures in form but saving its “strategic assets” in content, which were sanctioned under UNSCR 1267. This failure on the part of FATF becomes even more glaring as, by this time, it had already adopted its new methodology of risk assessment in 2012-13, which took the effectiveness of the AML/CFT regime into account.
Apparently, the only good reason on the FATF’s part in taking Pakistan out of the grey list in 2015 may be its decision-making style: once political commitment is made at the highest level, the FATF generally accepts the promise and/or only undertakes periodic reviews. So, the FATF relied upon assurances and took Pakistan out of the grey list in 2015 without considering the actual performance. This experience poses another question to the FATF: what does it mean to accept “political commitment from highest level” from a hybrid regime where de facto and de jure authority may not be co-located? And if the FATF accepts at face value promises which are not meant to be kept, what effect does this have on its credibility?
Pakistan is called a hybrid regime in the sense that writ of the elected government is limited in certain areas like security or foreign policy. The tussle between the elected government and the Pakistan Army regarding the policy to be adopted for Pakistan-based terrorist organisations is well documented (see the “Dawn Leaks” of 2017 or ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s speech dated 21 September 2020).
Indirectly acknowledging its lapse at prematurely taking Pakistan out of grey list in 2015, the FATF put it back on the list in June 2018. This time round the FATF has taken Pakistan for more regular periodic monitoring and it is trying to fix stricter deadlines, but the fact remains that even after the lapse of several such deadlines and warnings, the FATF is not able to extract genuine policy action.
Despite being grey listed time and again, why is Pakistan not effectively complying with FATF Recommendations? The answer may lie in its experience in manipulating and hoodwinking the FATF grey/black listing system in particular, and international community in general.
Starting from General Pervez Musharraf’s explicit pledge on 6 January 2004 to not allow Pakistan’s soil to be used to hosting international terrorist organisations till now, there have been many promises. These only proved to be a tactical short-term ploy to get out of a tight spot. It is not that the world is unaware of this. Most experts take Hafiz Saeed’s conviction in 2020 with a lump of salt and think that he has been convicted on very weak evidence so that he may be provided relief in appellate stages. According to Ayesha Siddiqa: “The complete court order that I was able to access and read indicates Islamabad’s willingness to take risks based on its understanding of the FATF. It is not seen entirely as a technical mechanism but as an instrument of power politics. This means there is an expectation that playing a favourable role in the US-Taliban peace agreement will bring dividends, such as the removal from the FATF’s grey list.”
In the meantime, expecting impending trouble, Pakistan has washed its hands off its long-time strategic asset, Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) chief Maulana Masood Azhar. The Maulana and JeM are also proscribed under UNSCR 1267. This organisation claimed responsibility for the Pulwama attack of 2019 and was blamed for the 2016 Pathankot attack. In 2016, an FIR was also registered in Pakistan and Masood Azhar was taken into protective custody. Pakistan has avoided that inconvenience this time round and claimed that the Maulana along with his family remains untraceable.
In Pakistan, many FATF Recommendations, which it has implemented and touts as achievements, are meant to fulfil a domestic political agenda. For example, money laundering, tax evasion and the issue of corruption has been used by the present regime against political rivals like Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari. Issues of tax evasion and corruption form part of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s larger political agenda. Experts claim that laws passed hurriedly in September 2020, claiming to be in compliance of the pending FATF review, also entail a lot of arbitrary and excessive powers that are likely to be used for political persecution of opponents.
It is noteworthy that the basic issue, which has been continuously flagged by the FATF against Pakistan, relates to terror financing and action against proscribed persons and entities. This is where it has been failing and this is where it has to deliver. Under a risk-based approach, critical failing in even one criterion can lead to black listing. Taking a parallel example, in 2005, Switzerland was flagged for monitoring regarding its opaque rules of beneficial ownership of legal persons and cash couriers. Based on such risks, Switzerland was made to comply and it did not matter that it had majorly complied with most other technical recommendations. Also read: FATF’s grey list suits Pakistan’s jihadi ambitions. It only worries entering the black list
Is there an economic cost?
Post grey listing, Pakistan’s credit ratings were downgraded. This credit rating downgrade has a negative impact on rate of interest which, in turn, has adverse impact on economic growth. But apart from the credit ratings downgrade, which may have been caused by factors other than grey listing, what do other economic parameters say? To analyse this, we consider trends in some key macroeconomic parameters when Pakistan was on the grey list.

Figure 1 below shows that Pakistan has a long-term trend of current account deficit leading to constant pressure on balance of payments. But contrary to expectation, during the period 2012-15, its current account position was only a shade better as compared to its historical average and showed some degree of stability.

Figure 1: Current account trend of Pakistan

Source: World Bank, compiled by author.

Figure 2 below shows that the debt maturity period had no particular trend from 2012-15 but started decreasing after 2015. It shows that Pakistan’s quality of debt deteriorated and became more short term post 2015, which is counter-intuitive. Similarly, the interest rate has been rising after 2015 after moving up and down from 2012-15. The grant component of foreign loans also decreased since 2015. This indicates that Pakistan is relying more on short-term high-interest loans, which are riskier.

Figure 2: Debt maturity in year, average interest rate on debt, element of grant

Source: International Debt Statistics 2020, World Bank, compiled by author.

Similarly, as per Figure 3 below, Pakistan’s debt service to exports position and reserves to external debt stock position improved between 2013-15 as it had decreasing debt servicing obligations to exports and increasing forex reserves cover for that debt. After 2015, this started deteriorating. The percentage of concessional debt, which is generally preferred as it has low interest rates, has been going down since 2013.

Figure 3: Quality of debt servicing indicators

Source: International Debt Statistics 2020, World Bank, compiled by author.

As Figure 4 below shows, Pakistan’s interest payment to exports ratio and interest payment to Gross National Income (GNI) ratio improved till 2014 and has been deteriorating since then. For part of the period when Pakistan was grey listed, its debt sustainability as measured by interest outgo was actually improving; since 2014 this has been going down.

Figure 4: Sustainability of interest payments

Source: International Debt Statistics 2020, World Bank, compiled by author.

The above figures show that for the large part of 2012-15, Pakistan’s macroeconomic parameters interest rate, quality of debt and its sustainability, governing its external sector were largely stable or had a secular trend. They also reveal that these parameters had started deteriorating much before June 2018. This shows that grey listing had a minimal impact on economic performance and it is largely ineffective in imposing economic costs on the target jurisdiction. This finding further corroborates the analysis as to why grey listing by the FATF remains largely ineffective in bringing any real change in Pakistan’s behaviour.

A related question which needs answering is: if grey listing is really ineffective, then why is Pakistan making any effort after all at passing laws or making perfunctory changes? And what accounts for the media buzz inside Pakistan regarding grey listing this time?

The answer may lie in the fact that the country’s economic parameters have been deteriorating for some time and its economy is currently very vulnerable. On a more ominous note, Figure 5 shows that starting from mid-2019, Pakistan is required to service huge amount of external debt in dollars. These include maturing of old-time debts now as well as short term debts incurred lately. This makes Pakistan’s economy particularly vulnerable over the next few years and any likelihood of progression to black listing will be particularly problematic. This timeline also underlines the fact it is not the grey listing per se but Pakistan’s persisting economic weakness coupled with the threat of possible black listing, which is worrying its government.

Figure 5: Future debt servicing liabilities of Pakistan

Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System, compiled by author.

This is not to say that grey listing may not have any impact on Pakistan’s economy. The idea of “naming and shaming” by FATF may have a cost. As FATF works with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank as well, the IMF has also been putting conditionalities linked to FATF-related compliances before giving bail-out packages. However, grey listing doesn’t seem to be the main cause of Pakistan’s economic woes though it may be exacerbating an already present malady.

Another related question is: what are the costs of black listing by the FATF? Some literature indicates the not-so-serious monetary effect of black listing and also calls for even tougher a FATF regime for non-cooperative jurisdictions. By and large, however, there is a larger consensus that black listing leads to severe consequences for the target economy. Currently, only Iran and North Korea are placed on the FATF black list, which may indicate its seriousness.

Weakness in FATF regime: A case for different shades of grey

It appears that as far as severity of consequences is concerned, the black list is a quantum jump over the grey list. It is a serious escalation with very high costs. For an already weak economy like Pakistan, it could even lead to large scale turmoil and default. Akin to the nuclear option, this leads to a very high threshold for black listing.

This structural weakness in the FATF is also reflected in the somewhat brittle or simplistic categorisation structure of different jurisdictions into so-called white, grey and black. This straightjacketed view may not permit a flexible and graduated response. The reason is a very substantial jump in international commitment when putting some country on to the black list. Madeleine Albright, former US Secretary of State, once called Pakistan an “international migraine”. To put it bluntly, the international community may be trying to avoid turning a migraine into a brain tumour by black listing. But Pakistan is also aware of this dilemma, that the only option available to the FATF after the grey list is one it may not be willing to take. So in place of gaining leverage the FATF is actually losing it through this structure. This high threshold provides considerable space for manipulation and manoeuvre to a country like Pakistan. Another deficiency already considered is the natural difficulty faced by most organisations in dealing with hybrid regimes like Pakistan, the FATF being no exception.

Analysing the problem faced by the FATF and risk associated with all the available options, some scholars have tried to take the middle ground and suggest keeping Pakistan in the grey list only. Their basic argument is that Pakistan has definitely not done enough to move from the grey to the white list. Black listing may lead to it being a pariah and this may have severe consequences.

The drawback with this approach is that, first, it does not solve the problem and, second, it undermines the effectiveness of FATF as an institution. As timelines are being missed, news of geopolitical considerations playing an increasing role in FATF meetings keep coming out. News of voting based on geopolitical consideration undermines the consensus-based technical nature of the FATF deliberations. Thus, status quo may not be the solution.

A possible option worth exploring may be to generate policy options for graduated but firm response while moving between the grey and black lists, that is, there may be a scope for darker shades of grey. Though the FATF has adopted a risk-based approach, the grey list shows countries as diverse as Mauritius, Pakistan, Syria, Jamaica, Iceland and Barbados being clubbed together. They all may have some strategic deficiencies vis-à-vis the FATF standard, but, qualitatively, do they pose the same degree of risk? For example, the FATF targets weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation, corruption, money laundering and terror finance. There is, however, a difference in risk between political corruption leading to money laundering and nuclear weapon proliferation or financing terror. The present system lumps all such jurisdictions with different qualitative risks in one grey list basket. Differentiating may help the FATF better assess the risk posed by Iceland or Jamaica as opposed to, say, Pakistan.

There may be those jurisdictions in the grey list that have the will to implement the FATF Recommendations but may lack the necessary technical or administrative capacity. At the other extreme, jurisdictions may have the capacity but would be unwilling in intent. A necessary categorisation that captures this crucial aspect may be made in the grey list. Countries willing to act but lacking capacity should be given technical support. But countries like Pakistan, which largely lack the will to implement, may be put in the darker shade of grey and sanctioned more severely. This should help in better targeting.

After categorising the severity of the source of risk followed by whether the country has the necessary capacity/will, or not, a graduated response may be designed in consultation with different constituents like credit rating agencies, banks, IMF and World Bank, etc. This approach may provide more flexibility in tackling jurisdictions that may be undermining the FATF by repeatedly giving assurances but not acting on them in any substantial way.

The time may be right for such a discussion because the FATF is already in the process of undertaking a strategic review of its methodology of assessment by 2021. It is committed to making the FATF more effective by strengthening risk-based elements of the assessment process.

Going by its record of policy innovation and flexibility, it is safe to assume that the FATF will again rise up to the challenge.

https://theprint.in/opinion/pakistan-is-hoodwinking-the-world-on-terror-funding-fatf-grey-list-needs-to-go-darker/522490/

پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی کے چیئرمین بلاول بھٹو زرداری کی اسلام آباد میں لیڈی ہیلتھ ورکرز اور ینگ ڈاکٹرز سمیت احتجاج کرنے والے سرکاری ملازمین کی حمایت


اسلام آباد / کراچی ( 14 اکتوبر 2020) پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی کے چیئرمین بلاول بھٹو زرداری نے اسلام آباد میں لیڈی ہیلتھ ورکرز اور ینگ ڈاکٹرز سمیت احتجاج کرنے والے سرکاری ملازمین کی حمایت کی ہے اور پی ٹی آئی حکومت سے مطالبہ کیا ہے کہ وہ ملازمین کے تمام جائز مطالبات بلاتاخیر تسلیم کرے۔ 


اپنے جاری کردہ بیان میں پی پی پی چیئرمین نے کہا کہ ترقیاں، مناسب پنشن اور مساوی مراعات وفاقی حکومت کے ملازمین کے جائز حقوق ہیں اور پیپلز پارٹی اسلام آباد میں اپنے جمہوری حق کے لیئے پرامن احتجاج کرنے والوں کی حمایت کرتی ہے۔ 


بلاول بھٹو زرداری نے وفاقی حکومت کے ملازمین, لیڈی ہیلتھ ورکرز اور ینگ ڈاکٹرز سے یکجہتی کا اظہار کیا، اور کہا کہ ان کی پارٹی ملازمین کے مسائل کے حل کے لئے ان کا معاملہ ہر فورم پر اٹھائے گی۔
https://www.ppp.org.pk/pr/23923/

پی ڈی ایم 20 کروڑ عوام اور جمہوریت کا مقدمہ لے کر نکل پڑا ہے، سلیکٹڈ حکمرانوں کی ابھی سے ہوائیاں اڑی ہوئی ہیں، چیئرمین پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی بلاول بھٹو زرداری


 پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی نے کہا ہے کہ پی ڈی ایم 20 کروڑ عوام اور جمہوریت کا مقدمہ لے کر نکل پڑا ہے، سلیکٹڈ حکمرانوں کی ابھی سے ہوائیاں اڑی ہوئی ہیں، اپوزیشن کے خلاف تھانیداروں والے ہتھکنڈے بند کیئے جائیں۔ ان خیالات کا اظہار پی پی پی پارلیامینٹرین کی مرکزی جنرل سیکریٹری ڈاکٹر نفیسہ شاہ اور پی پی پی کے مرکزی ڈپٹی اطلاعات سیکریٹری پلوشہ خان نے میڈیا سیل بلاول ہاوَس میں پریس کانفرنس سے خطاب کرتے ہوئے کیا۔

 اس موقعے پر پی پی پی سندھ کے اطلاعات سیکریٹری عاجز دھامراہ، سینیٹر سسئی پلیجو، فدا حسین ڈھکن، میر سہراب مری، سردار نزاکت اور شکیل چودھری بھی موجود تھے۔ ڈاکٹر نفیسہ شاہ نے شبلی فراز کو “وزیرِ مس انفارمڈ” قرار دیتے ہوئے کہا کہ ایک طرف وزیرِ اطلاعات کہتے ہیں کہ اپوزیشن کو جلسے کرنے کی اجازت ہے، تو دوسری جانب تھانیداروں والے ہتھکنڈے آزمائے جا رہے ہیں۔ انہوں نے کہا کہ پی پی پی گجرانوالہ کے صدر کے خلاف کروناوائرس کو پھیلانے کے الزام کے تحت مقدمہ درج کیا گیا ہے۔ انہوں نے کہا کہ وزیراعظم کہتے ہیں کہ میں جمہوریت ہوں۔ اگر وہ جمہوریت ہیں تو جمہوریت بن کر دکھائیں، لیکن حقیقت میں وزیراعظم ٹائیگر فورس کے ڈان بن چکے ہیں۔

 پیپلز پارٹی ٹائیگر فورس کے معاملے کو چیلینج کرنے جا رہی ہے۔ پلوشہ خان کا کہنا تھا کہ عاصم باجوا کے معاملے پر ایسی ہی ایک جے آئی ٹی بنائی جائے، جس طرح کی جے آئی ٹی نواز شریف اور آصف علی زرداری نے سامنا کیا تھا، کیونکہ عاصم باجوہ اب ایک رٹائرڈ شخص اور پی ٹی آئی کے رکن ہے۔ انہوں نے کہا کہ سلیکٹڈ حکمران بہت جلد دیکھیں گے کہ اصل عوامی تحریک کیا ہوتی ہے اور دوسروں کے کندھے پر بیٹھ کر اقتدار میں آنا کیا ہوتا ہے۔ 

ایک سوال کے جواب میں پلوشہ خان نے کہا کہ مولانا فضل الرحمان کی فورس اور ٹائیگر فورس میں زمین آسمان کا فرق ہے، مولانا فضل الرحمان کی فورس وہی ہی جو تمام پارٹیوں کی ہوتی ہے، جن کا کام جلسوں کو آرگنائیز کرنا ہوتا ہے۔

https://www.ppp.org.pk/pr/23925/