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Is Pakistan paying attention to existential environment crises?

Pakistan is facing an acute water shortage, with experts saying the country could run out of water by 2040 if authorities don't take long-term measures to deal with the problem.

The recent heat wave has damaged crops and caused food shortages, and comes at a time when the Islamic nation has yet to fully recover from the COVID pandemic and its devastating toll on the public health sector and economy. Experts say that degradation of natural resources, soil erosion, deforestation, unbridled and unplanned urbanization, and contamination of ground water are some of the many serious issues that need immediate attention from the government. Tariq Banuri, a leading environmental expert, believes that the most crucial challenges for Pakistan include the impacts of climate change — floods, heat waves, drought, crop losses and diseases — whose frequency has increased rapidly over the past couple of decades.

"Air pollution has also emerged as a big problem in large parts of the country, affecting health as well as transport and mobility, while water pollution is killing thousands of people every year. Around 80% of Pakistan's population do not have access to clean drinking water," he told DW.

Water crisis

Researchers predict that Pakistan is on its way to becoming the most water-stressed country in the region by the year 2040.

According to a 2018 report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan ranked third in the world among countries facing acute water shortage. Reports by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) also warn the authorities that the South Asian country will reach absolute water scarcity by 2025.

In 2016, PCRWR reported that Pakistan touched the "water stress line" in 1990 and crossed the "water scarcity line" in 2005. If this situation persists, Pakistan is likely to face an acute water shortage or a drought-like situation in the near future, according to PCRWR, which is affiliated with the nation's Ministry of Science and Technology.

Pakistan has the world's fourth-highest rate of water use. Its water intensity rate — the amount of water, in cubic meters, used per unit of GDP — is the world's highest.

Environmental degradation

Environment specialist Rahat Jabeen writes in a World Bank blog that every year Pakistan loses almost 27,000 hectares of natural forest area, explaining that almost three-quarters of the country's population use forest resources for a lack of alternative energy resources.

Pakistan is among the top ten countries in the world that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, according to Mome Saleem, an environmental activist.

"The agriculture land is being used for housing projects, which has resulted in the loss of trees and extreme heat waves. No attention is being paid to depleting water, which is already scarce," she added.

"Pakistan must have at least 25% of the forest cover, but we are also not doing well on this front. The government is not preventing the cutting down of trees, which is happening on a massive scale. A dilapidated public transport system and low-quality fuel cause a significant rise in carbon, but unfortunately the government is not taking measures to mitigate the hazard," she added.

Economic toll

All this is taking a huge toll on the economy. According to a report by Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission, the annual monetary cost of environmental degradation alone is equivalent to around 4.3% of GDP. Hasan Abbas, an Islamabad-based expert, criticizes the authorities for not paying proper attention to environmental problems. Saleem says that despite the fact that Pakistan ranks 142th on the environment performance indicator, the government has not taken concrete actions to deal with the challenges. Saleem believes the reason behind the country's negligence towards such existential crises is its fixation on economic growth.

Abbas is of the opinion that Pakistan needs a green economic model. "Scrap all big hydro-power and coal-power projects. We need to switch to wind and solar power, which are viable for countries like Pakistan," he suggested. Kishwar Zehra, a government official, said it is easier said than done. "Pakistan is already under huge debts. It cannot overcome these challenges without assistance from the international community. And this assistance should not be in the form of loans; we should be given [financial] aid to deal with them," she said.

https://www.dw.com/en/is-pakistan-paying-attention-to-existential-environment-crises/a-61987940

Balochistan Local Government Elections Will Strengthen Democracy – OpEd

 

By Qudrat Ullah

In 2022, Balochistan has remained in limelight of national and international media and the reason was its security situation, where banned organizations including Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) carried out attacks, targeting armed forces. The major attacks were carried out in February in districts of Panjgur and Noshki. The recent incident which involved a Baloch woman, Shari Baloch affiliated with Majeed Brigade, carried out a suicide attack on Chinese teachers in Karachi University. The attack left the common man wondering about Baloch youth, especially women.

In Baloch culture a woman has been given a great respect. It is trait of Baloch culture, “If a woman interferes during tribal feuds between two warring tribes – both parties will stop fighting”. But Shari Baloch’s worrisome and extreme step has left many Baloch wondering in what direction she tried to take the youth of the province. Meanwhile Balochistan remain far from being in news else of security situation. In the areas where there is an impression that Baloch people are wary of state and its policies; the reality is otherwise. 

Election Commission of Pakistan held Local Government Elections on 29th of May in 32 districts of Balochistan. In elections as many as 132 female candidates contested directly on general seats where they were facing male candidates. Most of these women belong to Kohlu district, from where 22 females were in the field, followed by 21 from Kech district. 

Despite the threats and boycott by Baloch militants, the elections remained largely peaceful with reports of minor irregularities. Militants as per their threats carried out a grenade attack outside a female polling station in Noshki district, causing no injuries. 

The participation of people in local elections expressed confidence in democracy by rejecting the resistive / armed narrative of Baloch insurgents. The peaceful atmosphere in which the elections were held shows that the security situation has improved largely and the insurgents have failed to materialize their illicit designs to disturb the peace and harmony of the province. 

It also highlights that the people of the province need grass root level leaders which they can access easily and can ask them for their basic needs/rights. The other thing which is encouraging is the participation of women in elections, which in a tribal society has less affirmation. The continuation of the participation of ordinary people in the local government will strengthen the democratic structure of the society.

Balochistan province comprises of tribal ethnicities both Baloch and Pashtun. The province has been run by the governments with the amalgamation of tribal leadership of both ethnicities. It still lags in governance as compared to other provinces of the country. The inability of Baloch and Pashtun leaders to streamline the affairs of province will give more space to moderate population to come forward and play their role for the development of Balochistan. 

The process which will open the sphere for such strategy is local government which is more likely than centralized structures to provide citizens with the opportunity to participate actively and directly in decisions that affect them closely. 

In Pakistan there are two schools of thoughts regarding the grass root level leadership. One of them is the local government system and other is the student unions in educational institutions. If we look in past three decades, the educational institutions have produced few leaders of grass root level, whereas many of the provincial level leaders now in politics have come through local government process. The student leaders are less interested as compared to local leaders to come forward and get involved in political process. 

It both depends on the opportunities and the process which enables the ordinary people to come forward and play their role for their society, province and country. But with the history and existence of local governments around the world, it shows that it is the most effective way to strengthen democracy and enhance the life standard of common people. In Pakistan, if local government elections are held consecutively, it will take the country to the list of strong democracies by producing effective leadership.           

https://www.eurasiareview.com/05062022-balochistan-local-government-elections-will-strengthen-democracy-oped/

From Colombo to Islamabad - A steep rise in inflation will create a potent mix that could easily lead to social unrest in the country.

By Aqdas Afzal

SHOCKING images of torched trees, smoldering greenbelts, and burnt-out vehicles are not something that people associate with Islamabad. But, in the history of a nation, capital cities have often become the battleground for disparate political forces.

Baghdad, Delhi and Istanbul have seen a lot of violence through the centuries. One hundred years ago, Benito Mussolini marched on Rome with 30,000 followers. Of late, Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka, has become the staging ground for daily protests by the public and marches against a complete and utter economic meltdown.

Given this tumultuous history of capital cities, will Islamabad too suffer the same fate? The answer lies in whether the current government will be given the time, support and space to implement some important economic decisions that are urgently required to prevent the economy from spiralling out of control.

Since the start of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, developing countries such as Pakistan have been facing severe external account pressures mainly on account of the steep increase in the price of oil in the international market. State Bank data reveals that petroleum group imports cost 91pc more in the first 10 months of this fiscal year. This steep escalation in the import bill has resulted in Pakistan losing 50pc of its foreign exchange reserves in the last nine months, leaving import coverage of only about 1.5 months at best.

A steep rise in inflation will create a potent mix that could easily lead to social unrest in the country.

Oil prices are not going to come down anytime soon. As the European Union moves to ban Russian oil imports, some analysts believe that Russia may try to punish Europe by curtailing production, thus raising international oil prices in order to inflict maximum damage on European economies. Some market analysts are warning investors to brace themselves for an economic ‘hurricane’ that may push oil prices to as high as $175 per barrel.

With no end to the oil price escalation in sight, and with rapidly depleting reserves, the government was forced to go to the IMF. However, the IMF had already indicated that in order for talks to be fruitful, this government would have to reduce the fiscal deficit by passing on the rise in oil prices to the people. This put the government between a rock and a hard place.

It is believed by many that political stability and economic growth are deeply interconnected as political uncertainty and social unrest lead to lower levels of investment and growth. Recent economic crises in countries such as Lebanon and Sri Lanka can be traced to internal political instability. Specifically, as economic crises start taking shape, governments at times exacerbate crises by trying to avoid or control political instability or by simply making poor economic decisions under political pressure.

Many economists recently criticised the government for not passing on the rise in international oil prices to consumers, with many commentators blaming it on the government’s indecisiveness. But there is evidence to suggest that the government had a fair idea about the worsening economic situation since the contours of the crisis were visible as early as February this year. The government, for instance, was very quick in tapping Miftah Ismail for the finance portfolio, even when the rest of the cabinet had not been announced. Still, the government dithered on passing on the prices until the political storm had blown over in Islamabad.

Perhaps, the government was correct in waiting for the political situation to settle down as passing on the price increase would surely lead to back-breaking inflation. It is very likely that inflation will touch 18pc to 20pc this calendar year, given how international oil prices are going up. In a politically volatile environment, passing on a massive price increase to the people would be akin to fanning the flames of social unrest.

To be sure, the government was evaluating an increase in fuel prices after the political volatility reached its climax with the in-house change in the National Assembly. Political volatility has not since abated, especially as the Punjab chief minister remained unsuccessful in announcing his cabinet until very recently.

Though there are indications of near-successful negotiations between the IMF and the government, Pakistan’s economy is not out of the woods. On the external front, the economy is facing extremely strong headwinds in the shape of continued pressure on foreign exchange reserves coming from elevated oil prices, as well as from rising policy rates in developed economies.

Additionally, Pakistan’s export destinations are experiencing stagflation, ending all hope of exports bailing us out. On the domestic front, a steep rise in inflation will create a potent mix that could easily lead to social unrest, thereby making it difficult for the government to take optimal economic decisions. In a sense, a severe economic crisis coupled with political instability could very well turn into a vicious cycle, whereby Pakistan starts hurtling towards a hard default like Sri Lanka.

Nevertheless, a hard default can be avoided. But in order to do that, unpopular economic decisions will need to be taken such as passing on oil price increases, having more import controls and possibly even fuel rationing. Given this very challenging economic scenario, political stability is the need of the hour. Forcing the government to call elections in the midst of a devastating economic crisis will only serve to increase political instability as different parties may decide to face off in the streets of Islamabad.

Moreover, the IMF and other international lenders may be reluctant to talk and provide assistance to a caretaker government, given there is no guarantee that the caretakers’ promises would be honoured by the next government. The fate of Islamabad and that of Pakistan’s economy is going be determined by political continuity and stability.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1692899/from-colombo-to-islamabad

Audio Report - Climate change and overuse is threatening Pakistan's main waterway

In a rare journey down the length of the Indus River, a filmmaker and environmental activists survey damage done to Pakistan's main water artery and meet the people who live on its ancient banks.