Thursday, March 4, 2021
#Pakistan - Senate upset
Pakistan: Senate election deals a blow to Imran Khan
Pakistan learns the cost of an alliance with China
Wedded to Beijing, Islamabad has discovered it could be difficult to get out.Protests, massive debt, dwindling cash reserves. Those are the consequences of Pakistan's increasing reliance on China — but the country has still decided it's all worth it. It's not what Pakistan anticipated when it happily embraced a $60 billion handout from China in 2013, when the countries formalized the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of Beijing's international infrastructure strategy known as the Belt and Road Initiative. Initially, the realignment with Beijing seemed a win-win situation, as the cash-strapped South Asian country drifted away from its traditional ally: the United States. Beyond the geostrategic satisfaction of outflanking India, the traditional mutual archenemy of both China and Pakistan, there have been plenty of tangible economic benefits too. Thanks to Chinese money and expertise, Pakistan has added more electricity to its faltering grid and is now better connecting its own cities with new roads and public transit systems. In international forums, Islamabad has a more reliable backer than the U.S., especially when it comes to the issue Pakistan cares about most: berating India. "They're all in," said Uzair Younus, a U.S.-based consultant who hosts a podcast on Pakistan's economy, referring to Islamabad's alliance with Beijing. "There is broad consensus that this the path forward for the country." For Pakistan, the alliance has also meant relying on China for everything from fighter jets to coronavirus vaccines. In January, Islamabad said it would receive a "gift" of 500,000 doses of the Sinopharm vaccine. It is currently in talks with Beijing to secure more doses of both the Sinopharm vaccine and the Cansino vaccine. "We ... value our unassailable friendship and strategic partnership," Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan said last year. The U.S. has had some cautious words about Pakistan's deepening romance with Beijing. A State Department spokesperson said Washington remained "concerned that some CPEC projects lack transparency and impose unsustainable levels of debt on Pakistan, with Chinese state-owned enterprises benefitting disproportionately." It's not just the Americans who are worried. Many Pakistanis also observe that the alliance has been exacting on their country's resources, people and international reputation. Money problems For one thing, Islamabad simply isn't able to pay China back. Bloomberg reported earlier this month that the Pakistani government will ask China for debt relief on the projects it splashed out on. Between 2018 and 2020, Pakistan added $17 billion to its external debt, totaling $113 billion last year. Even in the best of times, Pakistan's finances are notoriously unstable. It's currently in a $6 billion International Monetary Fund bailout program — its 13th — but the size and terms of China's investment have meant an even greater cash crunch at a time when its economy is squeezed by the coronavirus pandemic. As a consequence, its debt has ballooned, its currency has nosedived and inflation has skyrocketed. "They find themselves in a bit of a trap, but it's a trap of their own making," said Husain Haqqani, the director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute, a Washington-based think tank, and a former Pakistani ambassador to the U.S. Khan issued a public plea for debt assistance last year as the pandemic halted Pakistan's economy. Younus, the consultant, said Pakistan's debt trap alone hardly tipped the scale against China. "The business community will say, yes we have debts, but Pakistan has always struggled to pay back debts." Pakistan has essentially swapped creditors, he said, while all its economic fundamentals remain the same. But Pakistan might be trading away more than it bargained for. "The U.S. or the IMF has never, ever, taken over someone else’s territory as payment for a loan," Haqqani said, citing China's takeover of the Sri Lankan port of Hambantota after the island nation ran out of cash. "The terms of loans with a Western country are predictable and realistic," he said. "It's not the same with China. There’s less transparency." Experts warn that the port of Gwadar, near Pakistan's border with Iran, has the potential to become a new Hambantota. Recent work on a fence around the port was only paused after local residents protested. It is unclear whether the order to build it came from the Pakistani government or at China's request, which is concerned about the province's security issues. Neither the Chinese nor Pakistani government responded to requests for comment. The projects have not boosted local employment either, with the Chinese construction companies preferring to ship their labor from China rather than hire local workers, fueling tensions further. And Haqqani points out that stronger trade and road links have helped Chinese goods be sold in Pakistan, but not the other way round. Bundled together The problem, Haqqani said, is that the various aspects of Pakistan's relationship with China are intertwined. While European politicians can strike an investment deal with China while simultaneously criticizing its human rights record, Pakistan has a "one window operation." "If you don’t give them what they want in the economic realm, they push back in the military realm. To keep the military relationship going, they have to give up the economic realm," he said. China is now Pakistan's biggest arms supplier, and with Pakistan's military playing an oversized role in its politics, the civilian government has to be wary it doesn't upset its generals in addition to Beijing. "In the end Pakistan ends up giving everything," Haqqani said. The "one window operation" partially explains Islamabad's reluctance to criticize Beijing for the human rights abuses being reported in China's western region of Xinjiang, which borders Pakistan. Khan, the prime minister, sees himself as a spokesperson for Muslims worldwide. He has accused French President Emmanuel Macron of peddling Islamophobia and has written to Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg about banning anti-Muslim sentiment on his platforms. But on the plight of Uighur Muslims who report systematic rape and forced labor, the Pakistani prime minister has been less vocal. Experts say there is reluctance within the government and the military about the relationship, but that contrasts with both countries' official statements. Last year the governments announced an additional $11 billion in infrastructure projects, and the countries routinely talk up the partnership. That's partly because Pakistan can't get itself out, explains Khurram Husain, a journalist who has written extensively about CPEC. "There is concern, but the space to do anything about it is very limited. They have very little room for maneuver." Meanwhile Pakistan's relations with the West continue to unravel. With the U.S. winding down its military presence in Afghanistan, Islamabad's importance to Washington has diminished. Pakistan was not a party to the Muslim countries who recognized Israel last year, despite Washington's efforts. The EU, meanwhile, is an important importer of Pakistani goods, but that trading relationship has not evolved into a deeper partnership — especially as the bloc prepares to host India for a top-level summit in Porto in May.Pakistan has maintained that it's still open for business with Brussels and Washington, but Younus said the country's leaders "haven’t articulated that vision clearly and concisely." Accusing the French of "hate-mongering" hasn't helped the high-wire act."Pakistan has very few friends in the region, East or West," said Husain, the journalist. "China is the largest trading partner, the largest military supplier and playing a very helpful role in balancing out India. Pakistan needs China." Haqqani, the former ambassador, said it didn't have to be this way. He cited the former Yugoslavia as a communist country that developed an independent foreign policy while preserving its distance from the Soviet Union. "It's not too late," he said. "You can always break out." https://www.politico.eu/article/pakistan-learns-cost-of-economic-alliance-with-china/
Imran Khan is in sorrow, wants vote of confidence. Opposition hopes it can finally oust him
Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi has called it 'a sorrowful day for democracy in Pakistan'. This is a moment where you are either with Imran Khan or against him.
It is the season of elections and a reason for leaking videos. That’s the way it is on this side of the border, how about you people? But some fights can’t be won even after leaking videos. Test case: the critical upset by Pakistan’s opposition on an Islamabad Senate seat, where Pakistan Democratic Alliance’s Yousaf Raza Gilani beat Finance Minister Hafeez Sheikh by five votes. The win is being looked at as a vote of no-confidence against the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan and its policies.
Springing into action after the election debacle, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf announced that the prime minister will seek a vote of confidence in parliament, with Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi calling it “a sorrowful day for democracy in Pakistan.” This is a moment where you are either with Khan or against Khan, we are told.
Even though the ruling PTI became the majority party in the Upper House of Parliament with 18 new seats on Wednesday, it was worrisome that the 180 votes the government was confident it had in hand to win the Islamabad seat were not of the government anymore. The call by the PM to take a confidence vote could also end up in his ouster. If he survives, he will be weaker than he currently is. And that’s with or without the support of the establishment. Imran Khan is now playing on a sticky wicket.Opposition shows up This is a win of political narrative for the opposition alliance. Called out as chor, corrupt mafia, ghaddar, incarcerated and rebuked for being a ‘hindrance’ in making Naya Pakistan. The win of former prime minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and now a senator from Pakistan Peoples’ Party signals a new dawn. The dawn where the establishment is now ‘perceived’ as neutral and the opposition thinks it has plenty of space to do its politics. The win also cements former president Asif Zardari’s idea of bringing change from within the assembly — change of government through no-confidence — rather than taking to streets, resigning from assemblies and calling for fresh polls, all of which was considered former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s strategy to oust Imran Khan. So, the long march in March won’t be needed after all? Now we understand the jitteriness of the Imran Khan government over the Senate election from the get-go. It all began with feelers that disgruntled PTI members in provincial and national assemblies were contemplating ‘tabdeeli’ (change). And there is no better remedy against sorrow than trading votes for hefty sums of money. It wouldn’t have been the first time nor the last time when parliamentarians voted against party lines. Every ruling party is an equal opportunity offender, and Imran Khan’s PTI is no different. But this time it wanted to stop people from jumping to the other side and so began the operation. First came an ordinance from the government to hold the Senate election through open vote and not secret ballot, which President Arif Alvi cleared. A video of paying bribes to buy votes for a Senator by PTI leaders from two years ago was leaked – PTI leaders then used the video to highlight the menace of secret ballot. PM Imran Khan, whose own party was caught in the act, was now speaking against the vices of buying votes, as if he knew nothing two years ago. However, the ordinance was contested in the Supreme Court, which upheld the secret ballot, thus washing away hopes of the government. The secret shalt be kept. All that effort for what Gilani eventually defeated finance minister Hafeez Sheikh. Now, Sheikh is commonly known as ‘the IMF man’ (for dealing with the International Monetary Fund on Pakistan’s behalf), But we remember him most as the man who gave us tomatoes for Rs 17 per kg when they were as high as Rs 320 per kg. If Sheikh can’t be minister anymore, he could become an adviser to the PM. No defeat can be bigger than the IMF, after all. Before all was lost, never say never was the order of the day, as another video was leaked on the election eve. This one intended to get an opposition nominee – Gilani – disqualified. In the leaked video, Gilani’s son was seen suggesting a PTI member to waste his vote. PTI went to the election commission demanding Gilani’s disqualification, but to no avail. The election commission hasn’t been much of a government fan of late, especially after last month’s by-election in Daska, where 23 polling officers went missing when the time came to count the ballot. Yes, history has enough record of votes going missing but here, officers with ballots went missing – only to return the following day with the excuse that they got lost in dhund (fog). This is the stuff dreams are made up of. Re-election was announced in Daska. Some thought the election commission was showing spine; others felt the establishment had become neutral. What is life and politics, after all, without some hope. PTI was marred with infighting over the selection of candidates. One prominent member was federal minister Faisal Vawda, who is facing a dual nationality case. The same minister had showed up with a boot on a news show. Then on Wednesday, he showed up without the boot, cast his vote, resigned from the National Assembly — all within 15 minutes and was crowned senator in the evening. However, the Islamabad High Court didn’t seem much elated and held him responsible for submitting a false affidavit in the dual nationality case, directing the election commission to take action against him. Success or not? It was said that PM Imran Khan himself would oversee the progress of the Senate election preparations. How? Don’t ask. On the election day, Shehryar Afridi, the Kashmir Committee Chairman, ended up getting his vote rejected because he signed off his name on the ballot paper. His request to cast his vote again was denied. Such was the preparation that Afridi thought he was giving an autograph. Imagine the government trusts him with the jugular-ly important Kashmir cause? And according to the opposition grapevine, PM Khan’s vote was wasted too, along with Environment Minister Zartaj Gul’s vote. Shocking, if untrue. This shows how well Imran Khan had trained his flock to bowl no-ball in the super over. No wonder one PTI insisted that if Imran Khan had told them to vote for a khotta (donkey), they would have done that too. Only time can tell what is in store for Imran Khan after the confidence vote. If the last 24 hours tell us anything, it is that the winds of tabdeeli have started blowing from the other end. If Khan survives, we would understand how it all happened — no, not what First Lady Bushra Imran told us that behind every successful man is his wife’s hand. To be kamyab now, Imran Khan now needs the hands of his selectors.
https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/6906155786122195046/8762245299671934136
جب بےنظیر بھٹو نے سینیٹر بننے سے انکار کیا
قیامِ پاکستان سے ایک ہفتہ قبل بانیٔ پاکستان قائداعظم محمد علی جناح نے 7اگست
1947کو دہلی سے کراچی روانگی سے قبل آل انڈیا مسلم لیگ کے مرکزی دفتر کے انچارج سید شمس الحسن کو ملاقات کیلئے بلایا اور مختلف شخصیات کے ساتھ اپنی خط و کتابت کا پلندہ اُن کے حوالے کر دیا۔ کچھ دنوں بعد سید شمس الحسن کے دہلی میں واقع گھر پر حملہ ہو گیا۔
پولیس اُنہیں گرفتار کرکے لے گئی لیکن پھر کسی نہ کسی طرح وہ رہائی پا کر اپنے اہلِ خانہ کے ساتھ پہلے لاہور اور پھر کراچی پہنچ گئے۔ سید شمس الحسن سب کچھ دہلی چھوڑ آئے لیکن قائداعظم کی دی ہوئی امانت کو سنبھال کر پاکستان لے آئے۔
یہاں آ کر انہوں نے بانیٔ پاکستان کو بتایا کہ آپ نے جو خطوط میرے حوالے کئے تھے وہ محفوظ ہیں۔ بانیٔ پاکستان نے ہدایت کی کہ ان خطوط کو 20 سال کے بعد شائع کر دینا۔ 1958میں مارشل لا لگا تو مسلم لیگ کے دفتر میں موجود سارے ریکارڈ پر حکومت نے قبضہ کر لیا۔
سید شمس الحسن نے اس مشکل وقت میں بھی قائداعظم کی امانت کو کسی نہ کسی طرح سنبھال کر رکھا اور پھر جب ذوالفقار علی بھٹو پاکستان کے وزیراعظم بنے تو اُن کے دور میں قائداعظم کے خطوط کو اپنے طویل پیش لفظ کے ساتھ شائع کیا۔ اس کتاب کا اُردو ترجمہ ’’صرف مسٹر جناح‘‘ کے نام سے شائع ہوا۔
سید شمس الحسن کے ایک برخوردار واجد شمس الحسن صحافی بن گئے اور پھر برطانیہ میں پاکستان کے ہائی کمشنر بنے۔ 1994میں فرانس سے ایٹمی آبدوزیں خریدنے کے معاملے پر میں نے ایک اسٹوری بریک کی جس کے نتیجے میں مجھے ملازمت سے ہاتھ دھونا پڑے۔ اس معاملے پر جب قومی اسمبلی میں بحث ہوئی تو وہاں بار بار مجھ ناچیز کا ذکر آیا۔
اپوزیشن نے الزام لگایا کہ حامد میر کو آصف علی زرداری نے نوکری سے نکلوا دیا۔ وزیراعظم بےنظیر بھٹو نے مجھے بلایا اور اپنی حکومت میں شامل کرنے کی پیشکش کی۔ میں نے فوری طور پر جن دو لوگوں سے مشورہ کیا اُن میں واجد شمس الحسن اور بشیر ریاض شامل تھے۔ دونوں بزرگ محترمہ بےنظیر بھٹو کے بہت قریب تھے۔ دونوں نے مشورہ دیا کہ صحافت مت چھوڑو۔ میں نے محترمہ بےنظیر بھٹو کا شکریہ ادا کیا اور معذرت کر لی جس پر وہ بھی خوش ہوئیں کہ میں صحافت جاری رکھنا چاہتا ہوں۔
واجد شمس الحسن اور بشیر ریاض سے نیاز مندی کا رشتہ بدستور قائم ہے۔ بشیر ریاض نے کچھ سال قبل بھٹو خاندان کے حوالے سے اپنی یادوں پر مشتمل کتاب ’’بھٹو خاندان... جہدِ مسلسل‘‘ لکھی تو اس میں میری ملازمت سے برطرفی کے واقعے کا بھی ذکر کیا اور لکھا کہ کس طرح کچھ لوگوں نے وزیراعظم کا نام استعمال کیا حالانکہ وہ اس معاملے سے بےخبر تھیں۔ واجد شمس الحسن نے بھی حال ہی میں بھٹو خاندان کے ساتھ اپنے پچاس سال پر محیط تعلق پر مبنی یادوں کو ’’بھٹو خاندان میری یادوں میں‘‘ کے عنوان سے قلم بند کیا ہے۔
واجد شمس الحسن کی اس کتاب کا تعارف بلاول بھٹو زرداری نے لکھا ہے اور اس کتاب میں واجد صاحب اور محترمہ بےنظیر بھٹو کے درمیان ہونے والی کچھ اہم خط و کتابت بھی شامل ہے۔ یہ کوئی بائیو گرافی نہیں ہے لیکن واجد صاحب نے قائداعظم سے لے کر محترمہ بےنظیر بھٹو تک اہم شخصیات کے ساتھ اپنے تعلق کا حال لکھا ہے۔ قائداعظم کے ساتھ اُن کی ملاقات اپنے والد سید شمس الحسن کے ساتھ ہوا کرتی تھی۔ اس وقت واجد صاحب بچے تھے اور ایک دفعہ قائداعظم نے اپنے گھر کے ایک درخت سے آڑو توڑ کر واجد صاحب کو دیا جس کا ذائقہ وہ آج تک نہیں بھولے۔
خان آف قلات سلمان دائود جب بھی دہلی آتے تو سید شمس الحسن کے گھر ٹھہرتے۔ کتاب کا مطالعہ بتاتا ہے کہ خان آف قلات اور قائداعظم کا رشتہ کتنا گہرا تھا اور جب واجد صاحب صحافی بنے تو اُنہوں نے خان آف قلات کے ساتھ اپنا رشتہ برقرار رکھا۔ واجد شمس الحسن نے اپنی اس کتاب میں محترمہ بےنظیر بھٹو کے متعلق کچھ ایسی باتیں لکھی ہیں جن سے آج کی نئی نسل واقف نہیں۔
محترمہ بےنظیر بھٹو نے آل پارٹیز حریت کانفرنس کو او آئی سی میں مبصر کا درجہ دلوانے کے لئے سولہ مسلم ممالک کا دورہ کیا تو واجد صاحب اُن کے ساتھ تھے۔ عراق کے صدر صدام حسین نے حریت کانفرنس کو او آئی سی میں مبصر کا درجہ دینے کی مخالفت کی۔ بےنظیر بھٹو نے صدام حسین سے درخواست کی کہ آپ مظلوم کشمیریوں کی حمایت کریں تو صدام حسین نے کہا کہ اگر میں کشمیریوں کی حمایت کروں گا تو پھر مجھے کُردوں کے مطالبات بھی تسلیم کرنا پڑیں گے۔
واجد صاحب نے محترمہ بےنظیر بھٹو اور صدام حسین کے درمیان ہونے والی طویل ملاقاتوں کی تفصیل لکھی ہے اور بتایا ہے کہ آخر کار محترمہ نے صدام حسین کو قائل کر لیا اور اُنہوں نے حریت کانفرنس کو او آئی سی میں مبصر کا درجہ دینے کی حمایت کر دی۔
واجد شمس الحسن کی اس کتاب کا اہم ترین حصہ وہ ہے جہاں اُنہوں نے مشرف دور میں جاری ہونےوالے اُس این آر او کی اصل کہانی لکھی ہے جسے بعد میں سپریم کورٹ نے مسترد کر دیا لیکن عمران خان آج بھی بار بار اس این آر او کا ذکر کرتے ہیں۔ اس این آر او سے قبل امریکی سیکرٹری آف اسٹیٹ کنڈو لیزا رائس اور برطانوی وزیر جیک سٹرا کے محترمہ بےنظیر بھٹو کے ساتھ اہم مذاکرات اور ملاقاتیں واجد شمس الحسن کے ذریعہ ہوئیں۔ واجد صاحب نے لکھا ہے کہ ابو ظہبی میں محترمہ بےنظیر بھٹو اور جنرل پرویز مشرف کی ملاقات میں مشرف نے کہا کہ بی بی میں آپ کو پاکستان واپس نہیں آنے دوں گا۔ اسی میں آپ کی بہتری ہے۔
مشرف نے کہا کہ میں آپ کو الیکشن لڑنے کی اجازت نہیں دوں گا، نہ آپ تیسری مرتبہ وزیراعظم بن سکتی ہیں۔ مشرف نے کہا کہ میں آپ پر چلنے والے مقدمات ختم کر دوں گا جس پر بی بی نے کہا کہ میں نے تو آپ کو مقدمات ختم کرنے کا نہیں کہا، مجھ پر تمام مقدمات جھوٹے ہیں، میں سب مقدمات کا مقابلہ کروں گی۔
مشرف کچھ نرم پڑ گیا اور کہا کہ ہم آپ کو سینیٹ میں لے کر آ جائیں گے لیکن میں آپ کو وزیراعظم نہیں بننے دوں گا۔ بی بی نے انکار کر دیا۔ مشرف کے ساتھ مذاکرات کے اس اُتار چڑھائو میں بار بار محترمہ کو نیب میں چلنے والے مقدمات ختم کرنے کی پیشکش ہوئی اور کہا گیا آپ الیکشن سے پہلے پاکستان نہ آئیں۔ بےنظیر صاحبہ نے بار بار کہا کہ مقدمات ختم کرنا یا نہ کرنا آپ کا مسئلہ ہے میں پاکستان ضرور آئوں گی۔
واجد صاحب نے ڈاکٹر عبدالقدیر خان سے متعلق محترمہ بےنظیر بھٹو کے ایک بیان کی حقیقت بھی بیان کی ہے۔ محترمہ بےنظیر بھٹو نے یہ نہیں کہا تھا کہ وہ ڈاکٹر قدیر کو امریکہ کے حوالے کریں گی۔ انہوں نے کہا تھا میں ان معاملات کی انکوائری ایک پارلیمانی کمیٹی سے کرائوں گی۔ واجد صاحب لکھتے ہیں کہ آخر کار امریکی وزیر خارجہ کنڈو لیزا رائس نے بی بی سے کہا کہ آپ پاکستان جائیں، آپ کو وہاں سیکورٹی ملے گی۔
مشرف حکومت نے ایک این آر او جاری کر دیا لیکن واجد صاحب نے محترمہ کو پاکستان جانے سے روکا۔ محترمہ جانتی تھیں اُن پر حملہ ہو گا لیکن وہ شہید ہونے پاکستان آ گئیں۔
اُنہوں نے صاف لکھا ہے کہ محترمہ کے قتل کی انکوائری میں پیپلز پارٹی کی حکومت سے کوتاہی ہوئی، اسی لئے کتاب میں رحمٰن ملک پر کچھ تنقید بھی نظر آتی ہے۔ وہ این آر او جس کا بڑا ذکر ہوتا ہے، اُسے محترمہ نے 10؍نومبر 2007کو خود مسترد کر دیا تھا کیونکہ یہ این آر او ایک دھوکہ تھا، آج بھی ایک دھوکہ ہے، آئندہ بھی دھوکہ ہی رہے گا۔
https://jang.com.pk/news/893050