Sunday, May 22, 2022

Pakistan badly needs a rudder

 


 

WITH economic meltdown around the corner and the dollar over the roof, panic is all around. If successful, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail’s IMF negotiations in Doha may push ahead the day of reckoning by some months. But then what? How long before the house of cards comes crashing down? Decades of overspending and underproduction cannot be undone in a day.

Editorial: Import ban is just a band-aid for Pakistan's economic meltdown and tougher decisions are needed

Each successive government has routinely blamed its predecessor for all that’s gone wrong. Whichever party wins the next elections — if and when held — will surely continue this childish charade. In so passing the buck, Pakistan seeks to avoid recognising that it is the sick man of South Asia. This denial means it will resist seeking the right medicines. Today Pakistan lags behind Bangladesh and India in every indicator of consequence: economy, political stability, and human development.

There are three powerful reasons for our present predicament.

First is militarism. Since 1947, Pakistan has had a war economy. This enabled it to fight four wars, one of which was forced upon it but the other three were of choice. The luxury of choosing to go to war in 1965, and then again in 1999, was made possible by generous military and economic aid provided by the US. But now that Pakistan’s ex-patron has turned niggardly, and our current taller-than-the-Himalayas patron appears unenthusiastic, a forever war with India over Kashmir is unaffordable.

That India’s occupation puts Kashmiris at the mercy of Indian security forces is tragic. This has been the case now for decades. But India’s wrongdoing became an excuse for creating a militarised Pakistani security state that, for selfish institutional reasons, has sought to keep Kashmir on the boil. Little good has resulted but plenty of harm was caused all around, including to Pakistan itself.

To avoid shipwreck, Pakistan will have to deal effectively with militarism, overpopulation, and its skill deficit.

Pakistan suffered self-inflicted wounds by harbouring militants who ultimately turned their guns on their benefactor. Nevertheless, there is a glimmer of hope. The 31-year sentence awarded to Lashkar-e-Taiba supremo Hafiz Saeed is a clear admission that the old policies will not work. High inside the military establishment it has been understood that cross-border jihad must be shelved. Fear of FATF contributed in no small way.

Editorial: Action on FATF plan

More needs to be undone. Does it make sense to make a sick economy sicker by closing down the country for one full day on the fifth of every February? Or have all government employees and school students stand outside their buildings every Friday at noon and observe a five-minute silence (this flopped after the first attempt)? Or rename Kashmir Highway as Srinagar Highway in the vain hope that this will carry triumphant Pakistanis into the heart of Kashmir?

Recipe: Pakistan must let embattled Kashmiris sort out their problems with India while staying strictly within the formal bounds of what we have pledged to do — provide Kashmiris political and diplomatic support, and no more. If regional peace follows then one can be hopeful about civilian supremacy in Pakistan, moderation of defence expenses and, ultimately, some degree of self-sufficiency. Instead of more back-breaking Chinese loans, the way ahead lies through mutually beneficial Pakistan-India trade. If China and India are geopolitical rivals that can trade massively with each other, why cannot Pakistan and India do the same?

Editorial: India trade ties

Second is Pakistan’s uncontrolled population growth. Our cities are bursting at the seams, spilling far into the countryside, and gobbling up agricultural land. Pakistan’s present rate of population increase is enough to create one more Israel every two years. In another 25 years there will be 400 million Pakistani NIC holders.

In his new book Charter of the Economy, economist Hafiz Pasha has considered some impacts. Water availability has decreased by 49 per cent between 1990-1991 and 2020-2021; unemployment has risen from 1.7pc in 1961 to 3.1pc in 1981 to 5.8pc in 2018; availability of agricultural land has decreased from 6.1 acres in 1947 to 0.49 acres per capita of rural population; the quality of life in Karachi stands at 201 out of 231 cities in the world; etc.

Nevertheless, believing that more is better, like old-time Catholics, many Muslim conservatives continue to oppose contraception. Every newborn, they say, comes with a guaranteed rizq (provision) stamped on its forehead. Let’s assume this is correct and food was to drop miraculously from the skies for every Pakistani man, woman and child. Then what?

The law of exponential growth says that Pakistan will run out of physical space in a few decades, and water well before that. As for the amount of human waste generated and where it will go — one does not want to even think about it. And yet, setting aside this horrific future scene, Pakistan abolished the ministry for population planning many years ago.

Third is the rock-bottom quality of Pakistan’s education system. As every employer will tell you, local degrees and certificates are worthless. Producing high-quality professionals requires much more than putting up buildings for universities, colleges and schools. Critical thinking skills make graduates useful and employable. These skills are entirely absent in the Matric, FA/FSc system and only partially developed in high-end O/A level elite private schools. Emphasis on rote memorisation and religious indoctrination has crippled minds and curtailed thinking ability.

The proof stares us in the face. Pakistan has the world’s tenth largest overseas workforce that earns the bulk of its foreign exchange. But only 1pc of migrant workers are classified as highly qualified (engineer, doctor, accountant, computer analyst, pharmacist) and 2pc highly skilled (nurse, teacher, manager). The remaining 97pc belong to different categories ranging from skilled (welder, painter, carpenter, etc) to low-skilled (agriculture workers and labourers). Pakistanis are entirely absent from the world stage of high science and engineering.

Prognosis: dangerous times lie ahead. It’s bad enough to have a ship adrift in bad weather near a rocky shore. More ominously, its quarrelling crew members are trading blows rather than worrying about shipwreck. But the far greater problem is being rudderless. Pakistan’s ultimate goals need fundamental redefinition. Until we recognise the urgent need to combat three deadly monsters — militarism, overpopulation, and skill deficit — any optimism for the longer term is unjustified.


Joint Statement between the People’s Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan

 

  1. At the invitation of State Councilor and Foreign Minister H.E. Wang Yi, H.E. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari visited Guangzhou on 21-22 May 2022 for his first official bilateral visit after taking office as Foreign Minister of Pakistan. The visit coincided with the 71st anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and Pakistan.
     
  2. During the visit, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari held in-depth discussions on the entire gamut of bilateral relations as well as regional and international issues of shared interest. The talks were conducted in a warm and friendly atmosphere, in line with the finest tradition of mutual trust and cooperation between the two countries.
     
  3. The two sides agreed that amidst profound regional and international changes, the importance of China-Pakistan strategic relations has assumed even greater significance. As All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partners, China and Pakistan share ironclad mutual trust and friendship, which is a source of peace, stability, and prosperity for the region and beyond. Both sides reaffirmed their strong support for each other’s core interests and major concerns, and commitment to deepening strategic communication including at the highest political level and practical cooperation, and building an even stronger China-Pakistan Community with a Shared Future in the New Era.
     
  4. The two sides noted with satisfaction the steady growth of economic cooperation between China and Pakistan. In this context, they agreed that China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has effectively improved Pakistan’s infrastructure and boosted its socio-economic development. Both sides expressed firm resolve to synergizing development strategies, pushing forward all CPEC projects in a safe, smooth, and high-quality manner, promoting cooperation in areas such as economy and trade, investment, industry, agriculture, health, and science and technology, contributing to the peoples’ well-being and delivering greater benefits to local communities.
     
  5. Noting with satisfaction the record bilateral trade achieved last year, the two sides agreed to work together to make optimum use of phase-II of CPFTA and work together to diversify their trade ties with deepening cooperation in export-oriented sectors in Pakistan and integrating value chains of the two countries. Both sides also agreed on stronger collaboration in the services sector and skill development in the areas of tourism, education, financial and information technology sectors.
     
  6. The two sides expressed satisfaction at the growing momentum of bilateral defense cooperation and exchanges. They underlined that China-Pakistan defense cooperation was in fact a factor of peace and stability in the region.
     
  7. The two sides termed terrorism as the common enemy of humanity. They once again strongly condemned the Karachi University Confucius Institute terrorist attack. Pakistan reiterated that efforts will be made to speed up investigation, hunt down the culprits, and bring them to justice. Pakistan briefed the Chinese side on its efforts to ensure the safety of all Chinese nationals, projects, and institutions in the country. China appreciated Pakistan’s commitment to the safety and security of Chinese nationals. Pakistan and China will further enhance counter-terrorism and security cooperation. The two sides called on the regional countries and the international community to form synergy and fight terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. The two sides expressed their determination not to allow anyone to damage China-Pakistan iron brotherhood.
     
  8. In the face of multiple traditional and non-traditional global challenges, the two sides agreed on the need for international cooperation and solidarity. They noted that, based on the principles of win-win cooperation and shared benefits, Belt and Road cooperation has become an open and inclusive platform for international cooperation and is widely welcomed as a global public good. The China-proposed Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI) are new initiatives to respond to the pressing challenges facing the humanity. Both countries stand ready to work with other countries to focus on the development agenda, tackle security challenges, implement the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and jointly build a community with a shared future for mankind.
     
  9. The two sides discussed the Ukraine situation, noting the necessity of being alert to the negative spillovers of the Ukraine crisis, in particular preventing its impact on developing countries, and called on relevant parties involved in the conflict to resolve differences and disputes through diplomacy and dialogue.
     
  10. The two sides reaffirmed the firm commitment to upholding the UN-centered international system, the international order based on international law, and the basic norms governing international relations underpinned by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, practicing true multilateralism, and promoting democracy and rule of law in international relations.
     
  11. The two sides underscored that Asia, with its rich history, civilizational heritage and growing economic potential, is playing a leading role for peace, prosperity, and economic development in the region and beyond. The two sides hoped that in the pursuance of these cherished goals, the regional countries would uphold Asian values of mutual respect, equality and win-win cooperation, and build an open and inclusive regional architecture, safeguard peace and stability in the region, and advance common development and prosperity.
     
  12. Both sides reiterated that a peaceful and prosperous South Asia is in the common interest of all parties. Given the challenges faced by the peoples of the region, due to global pandemic, soaring commodity prices, climate change and poverty, it is critical to resolve all outstanding disputes to promote regional cooperation and advance the goals of lasting peace, stability and shared prosperity. Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari briefed the Chinese side about the latest developments in Jammu & Kashmir. The two sides underlined the importance of the peaceful resolution of the dispute based on the UN Charter, relevant Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements.
     
  13. The two sides discussed the latest developments in Afghanistan. The two sides agreed that peace and stability in Afghanistan was vital for regional development and prosperity. The two sides call upon the Afghan interim government to develop a broad-based and inclusive political structure, adopt moderate and sound internal and external policies, and protect the rights of women and children and ensure that the Afghan soil is not used against any of its neighbors. Both sides call on the international community to help avert humanitarian crisis and earnestly honor the pledges on Afghanistan’s economic reconstruction and future development. Both sides support the continued contribution of the mechanism of coordination and cooperation among Afghanistan’s neighboring countries and expressed readiness to work with all parties to implement the Tunxi Initiative of the Neighboring Countries of Afghanistan on Supporting Economic Reconstruction in and Practical Cooperation with Afghanistan and provide all possible support for the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan. The two sides also reiterated their readiness to extend CPEC to Afghanistan in consultation with the Afghan interim government and to the mutual benefit of all parties.
     
  14. Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari thanked State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi for the safe and secure return of Pakistani students in a phased manner to China. The two sides also decided to resume direct flight between the two countries carried out by Pakistan airlines at the earliest and subsequently increase directs flights based on the evolving pandemic situation.
     
  15. Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari thanked State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi for the hospitality extended to him and his delegation in the finest Chinese tradition of hospitality. H.E. Wang Yi accepted his invitation to visit Pakistan for Pakistan-China Strategic Dialogue.

22 May 2022

https://www.ppp.org.pk/pr/27059/

Video - PPP Leaders addressing a press conference in Islamabad

Video - Pak FM Bilawal Bhutto hold talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi

Video - FM Bilawal Bhutto Zardari addresses a Press Conference along with Wang Yi in Guangzhou, China.