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Afghans in Pakistan

PAKISTAN’S western border has been famously porous through much of the country’s history. But flows of migrants intensified from the 1970s onwards, as Pakistan formally played host to Afghans fleeing turmoil, conflict and dictatorial regimes.

At the height of the Soviet occupation, in 1986-87, there were an estimated three million Afghans resident in Pakistan as per UNHCR (the UN refugee agency) and government data. There were no serious efforts to repatriate Afghans till 2002, when the government of Pakistan began to work with UNHCR to encourage Afghans to return to what was then perceived as a stable environment.

The repatriation effort gathered steam after Pakistan started closing down refugee camps in 2005, and the distribution of rations, etc, stopped. However, the reverse flows began to peter out after the Taliban resurgence of 2007-08. In 2021, according to Nadra, there were 2.8m Afghans in Pakistan; 1.6m of whom hold Proof of Registration (POR) cards identifying them as having been registered with the UNHCR. The rest hold ACCs or Afghan Citizen Cards, a form of documentation launched in 2017 to cover Afghan migrants who were essentially undocumented.

Notwithstanding the relatively recent (POR card issuance did not begin till 2006) efforts to document the number of Afghans in Pakistan, there is little doubt that the numbers do not tell the full story. A census of Afghan refugees was not held till 2005, 26 years after the larger flows began. From 1979 to 2005, numbers were estimated based on discussions with tribal elders and household heads, who were asked to state how many family members or dependents they had with them. These numbers were supposed to determine the volume of rations given out, and were almost certainly exaggerated.

In spite of the integration of Afghans into Pakistan’s economy, the official policy is to treat them as temporary residents.

In subsequent years, as families settled in and grew; and more marriages and births took place, this initial (likely) exaggeration was almost certainly offset, however. The census of 2005 did not reach many Afghans who were scared of talking to the authorities and preferred to lie low. Meanwhile, inflows and outflows continued over the years (the border fencing project did not begin till 2016), many Afghans acquired Pakistani citizenship papers, many children were born who have never known any country other than Pakistan.

With more than 40 years having passed since the Soviet invasion, the concept of who is Afghan has become fuzzy to say the least. This is a natural consequence of a policy where Pakistani authorities were initially a) reluctant to count exact numbers coming in from Afghanistan; and b) reluctant to confine them to camps. In fact, the latter was impossible given the tribal, familial, linguistic and religious links with the local population, particularly in the border regions. There are other factors also which preclude the classification of the Afghan community in Pakistan as refugees in the strict sense of the term. Refugees are formally defined (as per international law) as people who cannot go back to their homeland for fear of persecution or death. However, Afghans had been moving back and forth across the border with few restrictions from the late 1970s till 2016-17. Many of those who came to Pakistan as refugees, and have been resident here for years, have also made frequent trips back to visit relatives, get married, check up on land and property, etc. Until recently, it was not a problem to cross the border using the POR card, or the Afghan tazkira, or indeed nothing at all. In spite of the obvious integration of Afghans into Pakistan’s economy, notably their presence in transport and logistics; construction, retail and wholesale trade, and the food business to name just a few, Pakistan’s official policy is to treat them as temporary residents. Afghans are not allowed to own property or businesses. Until recently, they were not allowed to open bank accounts (this only changed in 2020) or have cellphone SIMs registered in their names. They were not allowed to hold driver’s licences — a fact that leaves one incredulous given that they were clearly running a significant portion of the cross-country freight business. In fact, Afghans have done everything that they have officially been barred from, by circumventing official protocols and using informal economic networks to their advantage. This was inevitable given the extended stays in this country, and the societal/linguistic links.

Pakistan is not a signatory to the Refugee Convention of 1951, or the accompanying Protocol of 1967. The government of Pakistan says that it has actually given the Afghans many facilities above and beyond what the convention stipulates. This can be debated. But what is true is that Pakistan, in spite of hosting a large migrant/refugee population for over 40 years, has not developed a comprehensive policy on what to do with migrants.

Pakistan adheres to international law in that it does not practise forcible repatriation, at least officially. But there are still too many unanswered questions. Why is there no path to citizenship, and what purpose does it serve to not have one? Why were people allowed to freely move around in the country and settle here, yet not allowed to legally work or run businesses or own property? How can one facilitate students to take examinations when their parents do not have the requisite citizenship or refugee status documentation?

It is important to start working on these issues. It does not serve the larger interests of the state or society to host a large population that is overlooked by social services or social protection systems, is not documented and is perpetually vulnerable to the whims of law enforcement and security agencies. The recent protests by Afghan migrants in Islamabad must be taken notice of, and a clear policy enacted.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1702123/afghans-in-pakistan

#Pakistan - Indian and Pakistani FMs avoid ‘bilateral tiffs’ at SCO

Pakistani and Ind­ian foreign ministers on Friday toge­ther attended the Shanghai Coopera­tion Org­anisation’s (SCO) Council of For­eign Ministers’ meeting and events on its margins, but avoided handshakes.The SCO meeting was the first multilateral event where Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and S. Jaishankar came together since the former became the foreign minister after the change of government in Pakistan in April.Even in informal settings, for instance when the foreign ministers of SCO member countries waited for a joint call on Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the two foreign ministers sat away from each other.

Relations between the two neighbouring nuclear-armed rivals have been bitter for long. Islamabad had lowered diplomatic ties with New Delhi after the BJP government revo­ked the autonomous status of Indian-held Jammu and Kashmir in 2019.

Despite being in same room, Bilawal, Jaishankar steer clear of handshakes.

Subsequent events in Kashmir and Hindu supremacists’ actions against Muslims in India have so far prevented re-engagement. Islamabad’s position has been that it wants normalisation, but it is for India to provide a conducive environment for that to happen.

Foreign Minister Bhutto-Zardari, while speaking at a government-run think tank in Islamabad last month, emphasised the need to engage India. He had argued at the time that despite a “long history of war and conflict” and Indian government’s actions in Occupied Kashmir and its anti-Muslim agenda, it was not in Pakistan’s interest to remain disengaged.But soon afterwards, the Foreign Office clarified that there was no change in Pakistan’s policy on India, on which there is national consensus.However, Mr Bhutto-Zardari and Mr Jaishankar, in line with SCO rules and charter, neither mentioned bilateral disputes, nor accused each other.

There is a clause in SCO charter barring member states from bringing their bilateral acrimony to the organisation’s meetings.

The Pakistani FM, in his speech at the Council of Foreign Ministers meeting, highlighted Pakistan’s perspective on important regional and international issues of concern to SCO member states. He emphasised that “shared prosperity” was essential for peace, stability and development in the SCO region and globally.

The foreign minister also shared Pakistan’s vision for the future direction and growth of SCO which could be achieved through joint efforts to enhance greater connectivity; road/rail links within the SCO region; building network of businessmen and entrepreneurs of SCO; harnessing the potential of technology and digitalization; and removing barriers to intra-SCO trade.

About strengthening connectivity in the SCO region, Mr Bhutto-Zardari proposed the construction of railways and roads, and the opening of trade routes. He said Pakistan backs the proposed “strategy for the development of interconnectedness and the creation of efficient transport corridors.”Pakistan is working with Afghanistan and Uzbekistan on a planned railway project. This project, if it is realised, could provide an important access for Central Asian countries to the seaports of Pakistan, and will become an important component of the transport system of the SCO region.The foreign minister also spoke about the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and reminded the member states about their responsibility to help the war ravaged country.Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar, meanwhile, touched upon the challenges facing the region and expansion of the organization.

According to the FO, the SCO Foreign Ministers deliberated upon important topical issues facing the organization after 20 years of its establishment, including expansion in its membership; improvement in the mechanisms of the SCO Secretariat; and SCO’s stance on global economic and political developments and the challenges for SCO countries.

The foreign ministers signed sixteen decisions endorsing proposals on diverse areas of socio-economic cooperation and adopted a Joint Statement on Strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention. FM Bhutto-Zardari, on the sidelines of the conferences, also met with his counterparts from China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

“In these bilateral meetings, the Foreign Minister exchanged views on issues of common interest as well as matters relating to bilateral cooperation and further strengthening of political, economic and trade relations with these countries,” the FO said.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1702279

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#Pakistan - #Christian woman raped by employer then gang tells her and family they must go back to work

A Christian woman was raped by her Muslim employer, who sent for her to go to his private quarters at the end of her work shift.

After the ordeal the woman’s family still reeling from news of the sexual assault, were met by an armed gang at their home the following morning demanding they all go back to work.Rimsha Riaz (18 yrs) was employed in a glass crushing company alongside members of her family all of whom were hard-working loyal employees for Haji Ali Akbar, a successful Muslim businessman.

Members of the family turned up for work as usual on 6th July 2022 and after a tiresome shift they were all ready to go home. As they were all packing up and getting ready to leave a messenger was sent from the offices of Mr Akbar calling for the attendance of Rimsha Riaz for some extra work that was required.

The time was around 7.30pm so her mother Mumtaz Bibi (how old), brother Arslan (17 yrs) and oldest brother Adnan (25 yrs) returned home.

About an hour later Rimsha arrived home and was visibly distressed. Her mother asked her about the work Rimsha had done for Mr Akbar, at which pint she broke out into tears and informed her family that she had been raped at gunpoint.Rimsha spoke with BACA about the attack, she said:

“In his office, Mr Akbar pulled out his pistol threatened to kill me if I did not do what he wanted.

“He then started raping me.

“I cried out as loud as I could but no-one came to help.

“After he finished with me, Mr Akbar put the pistol to my ear and threatened to kill my brothers and other family members, if I dared to tell anyone.”

When Mr Akbar had completed his rape and threat he sat down and let Rimsha go. Rimsha took the opportunity to redress herself and ran all the way home.Her mother instructed the family not to go back to work ever again but did not go to police, because Christian families are generally frightened of them, and expect little justice. After two days however, on 8th July, Mr Akbar arrived at their home in the evening with a four armed men and rapped loudly on their door with the butt of his pistol. Mr Akbar shouted out to the family that they should open the door or face dire consequences. Rimsha’s brother Arslan opened the door frightened of what might happen to the family and was shocked to see all the armed men.

Arslan told us that Mr Akbar was drunk when he arrived and abused him and other family members verbally.  He demanded that they all return back to work and threatened to kill them if they failed to arrive the next day.

Arslan told him that they had left the work and would not be returning to the factory anymore. At this Muhammad Akbar furiously shouted:

“How dare you leave my factory without my permission?

You filthy Chooras (dirty Christians).

“I will kill you if you remain absent tomorrow and make sure you bring the girl.”

The whole family was left terrified and when he left the family began discussing what they should do. While they were planning what to do, Rimsha who was very distressed fainted and collapsed on the floor.  Her brother Arslan took her to District Headquarters Hospital, Gujranwala where she received treatment and a diagnosis confirmed she had been raped.

Back in the family home, Mumtaz Bibi called a close relative to ask what she should do.  He advised her to go to her local police station and report the rape and the threats.

That evening Mumtaz Bibi travelleed to Jandiala Baghwala Police Station with her relative and filed an application against Mr Akbar for raping her daughter.

The next morning arrested the culprit from his factory and registered a First Information Report – FIR No.994/22, on charges of rape undersection  376 of the Pakistan Penal Code.

376. Punishment for rape
(1) Whoever commits rape shall be punished with death or imprisonment of either description for
a term which shall not be less than ten rears or more, than twenty-five years and shall also be
liable to fine.
(2) When rape is committed by two or more persons in furtherance of common intention of all,
each of such persons shall be punished with death or imprisonment for life.”.

Despite the fact that police have arrested the culprit the family is still is in trauma and fear. Mumtaz Bibi has left her rented house in Gujanranwala and moved to a distant place at the home of her sister.

Unfortunately for Rimsha who was engaged to be married, her fiancé has now  broken the engagement on discovering the rape incident. Rimsha is visibly traumatized and depressed.

Juliet Chowdhry, Trustee for British Asian Christian Association, said:

“Rimsha is a Christian women in a country where here status makes her vulnerable.

“The fact that the rapist employer felt he could force Rimsha and her family to return to work after such an ordeal, is an illustration of the weak standing of Christians.

“In 2014, a damning report by an Islamic NGO ‘Movement of Solidarity and Peace’ reported that 700 Christian women every year are abducted, raped and forced into Islamic marriage (click here).

“This statistic does not take into count crimes of just rape – which if included would paint an even more devastating picture.

“Pakistani authorities must build in better protection for Christian women within their existing structures, or this social malaise will continue to grow.”

https://www.britishasianchristians.org/baca-news/christian-woman-raped/?fbclid=IwAR0K3BQPUPSla0Cz0GTojoWPCAcpDCIUgF2-NPo5Ooha2brg4Ps9yyrytQk_aem_AVnjIpVDaQpVcp813JO_JodkCyUFoTHAalpuuSyr2fthICtRhVh-5ROFjnytpyi6DtKrVD-WLPfRNjZ8VBxAP8Q_k4cov3GnUUtHmQ2zCczeC-oMxdShY2Iz8xOr3hWNIjHPGruwfzfRX8N1NRbzmrNs

#Pakistan - Risk of a perfect storm

By Maleeha Lodhi

POST-PUNJAB by-election developments have injected more volatility into an already fraught and vexed political situation. This has raised growing concerns about the fate of a precarious economy in the face of more political turmoil that seems to lie ahead.PTI’s stunning electoral victory was obviously consequential for the survival of the PML-N-led Punjab government. But political fortunes reversed in just a few days. In the dramatic events and wheeling and dealing that followed, the run-off election for the provincial chief minister took place on a day of surprises.

Although PTI and its ally PML-Q enjoyed a majority in the House an unexpected turn of events saw PML-Q president Chaudhry Shujaat declare he would not support his cousin, Pervaiz Elahi as Imran Khan’s candidate. He instructed party legislators to vote instead for Hamza Shehbaz and conveyed this decision to the deputy Speaker, who then rejected their votes cast for Elahi. This ensured a narrow win for Hamza. But instead of ending the Punjab crisis this outcome is likely to aggravate it. With Khan calling foul, the deputy Speaker’s ruling has been challenged in the Supreme Court while PTI has called for public protests against its ‘stolen mandate’. The Supreme Court may well rule against the deputy Speaker’s action.

Meanwhile, the coalition government at the centre has made it apparent it will continue in office until parliament completes its term in August 2023. But the question is how tenable this is, especially with the situation in Punjab mired in confusion.

× More importantly, can the fragile economy withstand what promises to be a period of more political turbulence and confrontation between the coalition government and PTI?

Imran Khan will continue to mount pressure on the government to hold immediate general elections. Towards this end, he is continuing to castigate the establishment on the unsubstantiated ground of siding with his political opponents. He also accuses the Election Commission of Pakistan of bias and has repeatedly demanded the chief election commissioner (CEC) — who holds a constitutional post — should resign. This despite his party’s decisive win in the by-elections in which it polled 47 per cent of the popular vote against 40pc for PML-N. Khan cast his party’s electoral success as the ‘defeat’ of both the establishment and ECP that he accused, without evidence, of trying to foil his victory.

Prevailing in the power game will be in vain if the economy tanks.

Even if Khan is able to get his way in forcing early elections, uncertainty will not end. He clearly wants a CEC of his choice. This is unlikely to happen. So how will he deal with this eventuality if and when elections are called? This raises a related question. Will he agree with his principal political rival on who should head a neutral caretaker government, constitutionally mandated under Article 224 to oversee elections? Uncertainties don’t end here. In the absence of consensus between the government and opposition on an interim arrangement, the matter goes for decision to a parliamentary committee. If that fails to reach agreement, the ECP has to make that call, under the constitutionally prescribed procedure (Article 224-A) For now, it is the economy that is being adversely affected by political turbulence. The economy is far from being out of the critical ward. True that a staff-level agreement has been reached with the IMF, expected to go for approval to its executive board in August. This did calm market sentiment, but only temporarily. Both volatility in global commodity and financial markets and political unpredictability at home is eroding confidence. The rapidly declining value of the rupee against the dollar is the most worrying sign of that. The rupee has depreciated by 20pc in the past few months, adding to spiralling inflation. The State Bank has pointed out that some of this depreciation is part of a global phenomenon due to the growing strength of the dollar. But other factors have also contributed over the months. Finance Minister Miftah Ismail attributed last week’s rupee plunge to a historic low to market panic due to “political turmoil”. While he hopes this will soon recede, continuing political confrontation suggests otherwise.

In fact, the market will remain nervous until Pakistan gets significant cash injections from the IMF and others. Reports indicate that the Fund will release the first tranche of $1.1 billion once Saudi Arabia provides SDR (special drawing rights) of around $2.6bn because Pakistan’s financing needs far exceed what IMF can disburse. The finance minister acknowledged in his press conference last week that a “friendly country” would transfer SDRs through the IMF.

Meanwhile, the recent downgrade of Pakistan’s credit rating outlook by Fitch Ratings has added to market jitters.

The country’s foreign exchange reserves are around $9.7bn, which cover less than six weeks of imports. As the reserve cushion has begun to erode so has confidence. Moreover, heavy external obligations lie ahead — over $30bn estimated for this fiscal year, $21bn to repay debt and $10-12bn to fund the current account deficit. This heightens the risk of a perfect storm. If reserves continue to dwindle, external capital injections prove inadequate or envisaged inflows don’t materialise, panic can take hold in markets even ahead of a cash flow crisis. Confidence can quickly evaporate over the perceived inability of the country to meet its financing requirements. In a scenario where panic sets in and speculative pressures mount, people start converting rupees into dollars as a hedge against risk. This pressure can prompt the central bank to quickly run down reserves. And if the State Bank does not use its reserves, the rupee’s value plunges even more. This in turn can fuel another round of already high inflation, produce a sharp rise in import costs for fuel and of course aggravate the problem of a runaway fiscal deficit.

The tenuous state of the economy urges an end to political turmoil and calls for responsible economic management in the months ahead. The fate of the economy is more consequential for the country than who wins the ongoing political battle. Prevailing in the power game will, in any case, be in vain if the battle for Pakistan’s economic stability is lost.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1701462/risk-of-a-perfect-storm

PAKISTAN: Three persons can’t decide country’s fate

Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari Monday said the only demand of the country’s democratic parties was the constitution of a full court bench to hear the case related to the Punjab chief minister’s election. “It cannot happen that only three people decide this country’s fate. That only they decide whether this country is run through a democratic system, an elected system or a selected system,” he said while addressing a press conference in Islamabad. Bilawal said that all the parties in the coalition government wanted a democratic system. He said “some powers” were unable to digest that Pakistan was moving towards democracy and the people were making their own decisions. He said that the PTI chief had trampled on the province’s rights during his time in government which had proven to be disastrous for the country and the economy. Bilawal said that as a result of the government’s democratic struggles, the country’s institutions were compelled to change their “controversial, unconstitutional and undemocratic role”.

“And it has been three months and some powers, people, political parties and conspirators are unable to tolerate […] a campaign is being run in the country to keep Imran Khan at the forefront,” says a news report. He alleged that this campaign was a conspiracy against the country’s economic progress and democratic journey. “We did not let any conspiracy succeed in the past and we will not let it happen now. We want institutions to remain uncontroversial.” The foreign minister said that everyone will accept the verdict when all the judges listen to the case.

“If only three judges give a decision, then we will not be able to control the political situation that will develop in this country.” He said that the Constitution could not be altered due to the pressure asserted by the PTI chief. “We all want full court bench. Whatever you decide then will be according to the law and Constitution and we will trust it.”

https://dailytimes.com.pk/972273/three-persons-cant-decide-countrys-fate/

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Pakistan Headed The Sri Lanka Way Of Economic And Political Meltdown – Analysis

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Sri Lanka’s complete economic and political meltdown attributable to Sri Lanka’s bartering its fiscal and autonomy to China’s ‘Debt Traps’ under the seemingly redoubtable President-Prime Minister Duo Rajapaksha Brothers, should be an eye-opener for Pakistan as with Pakistani economic meltdown underway what awaits Pakistan is a political meltdown.

Noticeably, Pakistan too like Sri Lanka’s leadership has courted and flirted with China economically and strategically. This became more marked in since 2018 when Pakistani masses mesmerised by Imran Khan selling dreams of a ‘Naya (New) Pakistan’ emerged as Pakistan’s Prime Minister.

It is doubtful that a return to power of Imran Khan as Prime Minister could forestall Pakistan’s economic and political meltdown. On the contrary Imran Khan’s credentials and demonstrated performance indicate otherwise.

Pakistan’s economic spiral downslide resulted in a big way from then PM Imran Khan with boundless political arrogance fostered by his China-tilt connect with Beijing made him brash to jettison United States and Saudi Arabia as Pakistan’s main donors underwriting Pakistan’s financial solvency.

Pakistan’s comparative situation with Sri Lankan terms of economic and political meltdown has not gone unnoticed within Pakistan and some media Columnists have reflected these concerns.

Further, reflected by this Columnist the disturbing similarities with Sri Lanka as import dependence on essential commodities, limited foreign exchange and piled up external debt.

Pakistan’s economic and political meltdown is a legacy issue of over three years of rule of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Pakistan was mercifully saved by the Constitutional Coup underwritten by Pakistan Army bringing PM Shahbaz Sharif to replace him. 

However, Pakistan seems to be in a self-destruct mode going by the recent by-poll election results in Pakistan’s majority province of Punjab. Former PM Imran Khan’s PTI party swept the polls leading to widespread speculation in Pakistan media that this could possibly herald the political resurrection of Imran Khan and his possible return as Pakistan’s Prime Minister. 

However, Imran Khan’s big win in Punjab was from seats in which earlier PTI legislators had stood disqualified. The PTI therefore can be said to have retained its earlier poetically strong con constituencies. PTI has nothing to show that it has enlarged its political base.

In South Asian politics, by-poll results are not an accurate barometer of political mood swings and more so in Pakistan where there are too many imponderables at play, bot external and internal.

Pakistan’s foreign policy under Imran Khan as Prime Minister was horribly messed-up both by Imran Khan’s own predilections for China and those of his impulsive and brash Foreign Minister Qureshi. Both of them, more than earlier regimes swung Pakistan firmly into China’s orbit and flirting with notions of Pakistan-Turkey-Malaysia Islamic Bloc to offset the more conservative hold of the Arab Monarchs Bloc on the Islamic World.

In both cases, Pakistan was geopolitically positioning itself with countries which patently were in adversarial mode with United States which controlled global financial institutions.

The economic spinoff of the above impulsive moves was that Pakistan so- positioning led to an economic squeeze of financial sustenance of Pakistan by major donors like United States and Saudi Arabia which were the very sources of financial largesse which had sustained Pakistan financially. 

Pakistan under Imran Khan Regime was not trusted by the United States and Saudi Arabia changed course only after PM Imran Khan went with a begging bowl to Jeddah and forsook moves to form Pakistan-Turkey-Malaysia Bloc as rival to Saudi-led Arab Monarchies Bloc.

The United States also made initial political outreach moves to Pakistan with exit of PM Imran Khan. The Pakistan Army Chief despite the Army’s predominant Chines military inventories publicly articulated that Pakistan sought good relations with the United States, signalling that it had not approved Imran Khan’s marked China-tilt.

Pakistan’s internal political dynamics, if going by recent by-poll results suggesting Pakistan’s political mood for return of Imran Khan as Prime Minister could then put United States political outreaches to Pakistan in jeopardy, and which in its wake ensures lending by global financial institutions slip into reverse gears.

Pakistan’s economy would take at least a decade to recover under present political conditions continuing to prevail. However, should political mood-swings veer towards Former PTI PM Imran Khan then Pakistan’s economic meltdown would get accelerated?

Former PM Imran Khan with all his political demagoguery is less likely to continue in power, even if he returns, as political meltdown is a natural corollary of Pakistan’s economic meltdown.

China has already exhibited that it can bail out Pakistan financially only up to a point where any Pakistani regime can ensure the security of Chinese economic and strategic interests in Pakistan. But how can a future Imran Khan Regime forestall Pakistan’s economic meltdown if China does not go in for massive re-scheduling of Chinese loans to Pakistan. Can China do it with its own declining economic growth?

While dwelling on the subject, the attitudes of Pakistan Army cannot be side-lined. The Pakistani Army is a strong determinator of Pakistan’s foreign policies and Pakistan’s political dynamics. Too much significance is being attached today to speculation that Pakistan Army is a ‘Divided House’ with some of the Generals supporting Imran Khan.

In the overall analysis, it can be safely asserted that when it would come to an eventual showdown on Pakistan Army losing its grip on Pakistan’s governance, then Pakistan Army hierarchy would close its ranks to safeguard its corporate interests.  Can it be forgotten by Pakistan Army hierarchy that Imran Khan as Prime Minister was dividing the Pakistan Army’s Collegium of Generals while in power?

Concluding, it can be asserted that if Pakistan is to avoid going the Sri Lanka path of economic and political meltdown, then Pakistan’s political dynamics seeking return of former PM Imran Khan to power would only hasten the meltdown of Pakistan.

https://www.eurasiareview.com/24072022-pakistan-headed-the-sri-lanka-way-of-economic-and-political-meltdown-analysis/

One such informed Columnist, Mohsin Saleem Ullah on July 21 in Express Tribune has assessed and compared the economic situation in Pakistan as akin to Sri Lankan major crisis. It is brought out that Pakistan today is similarly plagued with severe external debt, high inflation, surge in unemployment and scarcity of food grains and medicines 

Water management for Balochistan

Dawood Khan

It is time policies are made and implemented swiftly to respond to the water needs of the province.

B

alochistan’s water crisis has reached a level where rain is needed everywhere, all the time. Sadly, the annual rainfall is meager. On the other hand, there is little preparedness for it. Every time it rains, flooding damage affects lives and livelihoods, particularly in the agriculture. All this was on display last week when it rained in most parts of Balochistan.

In Pishin district, the rain storm caused a number of families to migrate to higher points under an open sky. Water entered the living quarters in many areas. People in the Malakyar village had to flee their homes during the night. Many families migrated to urban regions and started living with their relatives in the host cities.

A few weeks ago, videos of some female students at Loralai Medical College went viral on social media. They were carrying pots of water. They travelled great distances from their hostels and fetched water for themselves. The students have been deprived of safe drinking water. For a long time, the people of Gwadar have not had sufficient water. On several occasions they have been forced to hold street protests.

Quetta, the capital of Balochistan, is over-populated. Families that hail from quite far-flung regions (both Pashtuns and Baloch) also reside in the capital. It is mostly because unlike their ancestral villages their children have access to basic healthcare and schools. The large population needs water. However, the water supply is not sufficient. Water tankers charge around Rs 10,000 per fill. Over the years, an entire water economy has evolved in the city.

In Killa Saifullah, the agriculture has been affected the most by heavy rains. Many shepherds lost their livestock on the eve of Eid-ul-Azha. Some said they had to watch helpless their animals drowned. The already marginalised segment of the society was badly hit economically. Similar stories poured in from other parts of the province. It cannot be claimed, however, that all parts of the province received adequate media coverage.

Potable water scarcity is a serious issue. It causes poverty, illiteracy, stunted growth and security issues. The population of Balochistan is less than the city of Lahore but it is scattered over 48 percent of the land area of the country. 

Many people in Balochistan do not have clean water to drink. The water table has gone down nearly a thousand feet in recent years. Installation of solar-powered tubewells, promoted by some politicians, brings only temporary relief.

When it rains, the worries of many citizens are multiplied. Rural regions are affected the most because of the poor design and construction of buildings.

Potable water scarcity is a very serious issue. It causes poverty, illiteracy, stunted growth and security issues. The population of Balochistan, less than that of the city of Lahore, is scattered over 48 percent of land area of the country.

Government policies to solve these issues have not proved compatible with the ground realities. Balochistan does not have enough dams and reservoirs to store rain water. Most of the rainwater is wasted. It flows out quickly and joins the sea, becoming unfit for drinking and other uses.

There is an opportunity for the federal and provincial governments to bring the issue to the table with the Chinese under the CPEC umbrella. The issue must be given priority. The authorities should declare a water emergency. Use of clean water for washing cars etc should be banned.

Balochistan is blessed with minerals and natural resources. It should resolve its water issue by requiring mining companies to provide water for the host communities.

The provincial government should also develop a water trade system with other provinces. In return for the water received Balochistan can provide grapes, apples, melons and watermelons to the rest of the country.

Balochistan is adjacent to Afghanistan which has sufficient water. The government should analyse this option wisely and enter a suitable arrangement with the Afghan government.

The karez system in Balochistan has become extinct. Restoring this system is not viable. A better alternative is small dams to store rainwater.

In the near future, construction and operation of such dams will likely be the best indicator of the health of the economy. It will also be a good yardstick for the sincerity of politicians.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/tns/detail/976186-water-management-for-balochistan 

Pakistan: 100 killed, 57 injured in rain-related incidents in Balochistan province

Heavy downpours have killed 100 people in Pakistan, leaving 57 injured and displacing many across southwest Balochistan province.

The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said that women, children and men were among 100 people killed in recent heavy rainfall in the province, ARY News reported.

“Overall 6,063 houses were demolished while 550-kilometre road track along four major highways in the province also got damaged during the rainfall,” PDMA said. The disaster management authority mentioned that over 712 animals have been killed during the heavy downpour. Section 144 was imposed by the government for a period of one month after the forecasts predicted more downpours in the province.

Section 144 prevents people from going to picnics at rivers, dams and other water bodies. Under the section, there is a ban on swimming in rivers and water streams.

NDMA has provided relief goods to the province, local media reported. The relief goods include family tents and de-watering pumps to assist the disaster management authority. The PDMA situation report said that more than 2,500 houses have been completely damaged, whereas 1,417 houses have been partly damaged in the recent rains.

Rescue and relief activities are in full swing in the province, according to the PDMA, adding that camps, ration bags, blankets, and other everyday life necessary stuff have been dispatched to the flood-hit areas.

Earlier, the Pakistan Meteorological Department forecasted more heavy rains in various districts of the province from Friday to Tuesday, advising all concerned authorities to remain alert and take necessary precautionary measures during the forecast period. Due to heavy rainfalls across Pakistan, several incidents of people getting electrocuted have come to light.

Rainwater has accumulated on the main roads and streets and has caused a disruption in the flow of traffic, and the accumulated water has caused several vehicles and motorcycles to break down on the streets. The downpour across the has caused several houses and villages to be submerged, standing crops and infrastructure was damaged and many remote areas were cut off from the rest of the population due to destroyed roads.

https://theprint.in/world/pak-100-killed-57-injured-in-rain-related-incidents-in-balochistan-province/1053195/

Christians in Pakistan are victims of rape, forced marriages, and violent mobs using blasphemy laws against them

A witness to the plight of Christians and other religious minorities talks to Aleteia, as the European Union considers suspending Pakistan's preferential trading status.Each year, human rights observers report that as many as 1,000 mostly Christian and Hindu girls and young women in Pakistan are raped and subjected to forced conversions and marriages to Muslim men.

These crimes have helped earn Pakistan its ignominious designation as a “Country of Particular Concern” on the U.S. Department of State’s Religious Freedom Report. Representing only 2% of the population of Pakistan, Christians are often victims of the country’s harsh blasphemy laws and mob violence.That number however, represents only about half of the actual number of victims, says Shaheed Mobeen, a Pakistani professor of philosophy at the Pontifical Urban University in Rome and an advocate for religious freedom in Pakistan. Mobeen is a witness testifying at the International Religious Freedom Summit, held in Washington, DC, this week. A guest of the Catholic charity Aid to the Church in Need, he is here to talk about the persecution of religious minorities in Muslim-majority Pakistan.

Aid to the Church in Need, in its support of persecuted Christians around the world, helps fund the legal defense of Christians accused of blasphemy, and aids in the rescue of Christian girls abducted and forcibly converted.

“The government of Pakistan doesn’t accept [the number of victims as] 1,000 a year, but in the last two years, what I have seen, and what volunteers, nuns and lawyers have found, is that there are about 2,000 forced conversions and marriages a year,” Mobeen told Aleteia. In addition to Christians, Hindu, Sikh, and Shia Muslim families are being victimized and forced into marriages with Muslim men.

Abducted by Muslim “uncles”

The perpetrators of these crimes against girls and young women, he said, are usually family friends.“What happens is a Muslim man who appears to be a friend of the Christian family visits the family, they eat together, and they drink together. This man starts bringing some gifts for the children of the house. The parents think that he is just like part of the family, whereas he is already planning his own future 3rd, 4th, or 5th wife,” Mobeen explained.

“And he chooses the most beautiful minor girl between the ages of 10 and 14. Fascinated by the candies, all the nice dresses, all the make-up things, these almost-teenagers think at the beginning that its an uncle who is giving so many gifts.

“Then he sexually violates the girl, converts her to Islam, and marries the same girl. After two days when the parents are looking for her everywhere, they receive a letter: ‘Your daughter has accepted Islam, congratulations, she will be saved,’” Mobeen said. While the minimum legal age for marriage in Pakistan ranges from 14 to 18 depending on the province, that restriction is ignored by the men who abduct these girls, and sometimes by the courts tasked with upholding the law. In Sindh Province, for example, in the southeastern region of Pakistan, girls must be 18 to marry without the permission of their parents. When the parents of 14-year-old Huma Younus, a Catholic girl, went to court after their daughter was abducted, forcibly converted to Islam, and married off to a Muslim man, they discovered that the judicial system was not based on the laws on the books. In his ruling, the judge declared that, despite the evidence that a 14-year-old girl had been illegally married without her parents’ permission, no crime had been committed. He said that the marriage was legal.

His reasoning: in accordance with Sharia law, since their daughter had already had her first menstrual period, she was of marriageable age.

The decision set off a firestorm of protests on social media, and was the subject of remarks on up on the floor of the UK Parliament, Mobeen said.He told Aleteia that despite the many witnesses present, the court later denied that the judge ruled as he did. “It became an issue, and three days later the same court issued a press release saying ‘all that is being said in social media is not true.’ But we are witnesses to confirm that that was said,” Mobeen said.

Blasphemy laws and the threat of international sanctions

According to reports from human rights observers, Christians, Hindus and other religious minorities continue to be victimized by mobs of Muslims who attack them because of alleged acts of blasphemy.

Under the Pakistani penal code, accusations of blasphemy can subject one to life imprisonment and the death penalty, although nobody has ever been executed, at least through the judicial system. For non-Muslims accused of blasphemy, according to Aid to the Church in Need’s Religious Freedom Report, “accusations often result in lynching, mob attacks on entire neighborhoods, and extrajudicial killings.” Those who survive are brought to jail, where they remain, having been denied bail because they are believed to be safer in jail. In some cases, those who are incarcerated die under suspicious circumstances, Mobeed said.

The world turned its eyes to Pakistan when human rights activists, including Aid to the Church in Need, brought attention to the case of Asia Bibi, the Pakistani woman sentenced to death after being convicted of blasphemy charges. Her 2018 acquittal due to “insufficient evidence” was followed by a decrease in charges of blasphemy. The Center for Social Justice (CSJ) reported authorities charged and imprisoned 84 individuals in 2021 for blasphemy, a decrease from the 199 brought in on blasphemy charges in 2020.“After the release of Asia Bibi, Pakistan realized the world is looking at us and there are going to be economic sanctions on us if we don’t respect and give space for religious freedom and human rights,” Mobeen said.

In the United States, while Pakistan remains on the list of “countries of particular concern,” the U.S. State Department has issued a waiver so sanctions won’t be brought against Pakistan, due to “the national interests of the United States.”

Meanwhile, Pakistan is now in danger of losing its GSP+ status with the European Union because of its persecution of religious minorities. The country benefits from a preferential status that allows it to enjoy zero duties on 66% of its exports. In April several Members of the European Parliament called for a debate on human rights abuses in Pakistan, with a focus on discrimination against religious minorities. In its resolution the group demanded that Pakistan protect religious freedom or risk losing aid from the European countries. “Pakistan is trying to do its best to show to the international community that there is religious freedom in Pakistan, that they are respecting human rights in Pakistan, but in the case of religious minorities, religious freedom is not even discussed. We have a department of religious affairs called Interfaith Harmony and they are not doing anything in that direction and they don’t even know what interfaith dialogue means,” he said.

And despite a decrease in the number of people jailed for blasphemy, Mobeen said that there are “many Asia Bibis in Pakistan in prison.”

“They need to be saved, the many boys and girls, school teachers who are in jail, accused of blasphemy, while there is no proof of having committed blasphemy. They are going to stay for years and years in jail,” he said.

Criminals hiding behind Sharia law

According to Mobeen, the rapes, forced conversions and marriages, and mob violence have little to do with religion.

“Religion does not have anything to do with that kind of lustful attitude of these men,” accused of abducting young girls and forcing them to marry them, he said.

“Those vicious and lustful men use religious law to protect themselves and safeguard themselves, just like with the blasphemy laws.” Mobeen believes that charges of blasphemy are often made by Muslims who are jealous of how Christians and Hindus are faring economically. “Islam does not invite you to rape a girl, Islam does not teach you to accuse someone falsely of blasphemy, but with this situation, it is legally possible for a Muslim criminal to hide himself behind these Islamic laws,” he explained.

Hope rests on international pressure

“Christians are finding it difficult to survive in everyday life,” Mobeen stressed.

His hope is that the United States and other nations will press for Pakistan to provide protection for religious minorities.

“If they say they are protecting religious minorities, it is not true. If it appears they are doing something, it’s not enough, we need to be protected better,” Mobeen said.In addition, he believes the Pakistani government should be encouraged to provide economic assistance to minority small businessmen and educational scholarships to religious minorities.Because many Christian parents refuse to let their daughters attend state schools for fear they will be abducted, the literacy rate for girls is only about 9%, Mobbed estimates. Home-schooling is not an option as many of the parents are themselves illiterate. And Christian schools are unaffordable for many. University scholarships, he says, are denied non-Muslims, blocking off the main path to economic well-being.

But no amount of economic or educational assistance will help without the physical protection of religious minorities, Mobbed said.

“We are citizens of Pakistan. We aren’t aliens. We need protections as any other citizens of Pakistan do,” he said.

https://aleteia.org/2022/07/01/christians-in-pakistan-are-victims-of-rape-forced-marriages-and-violent-mobs-using-blasphemy-laws-against-them/

Is Pakistan the Next Sri Lanka?

By Muhammad Akbar Notezai

Pakistan’s own economic crisis has sparked worrying comparisons to the disaster unfolding in nearby Sri Lanka.

Hambantota in southern Sri Lanka housed ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa following the recent crisis, until he was forced to flee the country entirely. That continues a trend of the city, and especially its strategic deep-sea port, being in the news for all the wrong reasons. In 2017, when Sri Lanka found itself struggling to make debt repayments on time, it sold a 99-year lease of the port to the Chinese company that had constructed it for some quick cash. Many analysts and writers penned articles pointing to Hambantota as Exhibit A in the theory that China deliberately plunges developing countries into a “dept trap” by offering loans to finance extravagant infrastructure projects. Similarly, many analysts and writers who warned the same fate might befall Pakistan, where Chinese authorities have been heavily involved in investment projects, particularly under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) since 2015. Like Sri Lanka’s Hambantota, the Chinese have been heavily investing in Gwadar, the deep-sea port in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province that serves as the epicenter of CPEC in Pakistan. Hence, the news about Hambantota port rang alarm bells in the corridors of power in Pakistan. Some feared that if Chinese influence further increased in Gwadar, it might follow the example of the Sri Lankan port, for all the wrong reasons.

Today, the current political and economic situation has worsened tremendously in Sri Lanka, culminating in the country defaulting on its debt payments. Amid shortages of basic necessities, Sri Lankans have erupted in mass protests. And the crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon, even though the protesters have forced Rajapaksa to quit. He was replaced by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is also unpopular with the masses and seen as a symbol of the political status quo.

Once again, Pakistan (among other developing countries) has come under discussion in light of the worsening situation in Sri Lanka, with questions as to whether the country may fall down the same dark path.

Undoubtedly, Pakistan, too, has a shambling economy, now going from bad to worse in the wake of political uncertainty. There is gross unemployment, while the inflation rate has skyrocketed. Among other things, The News, an English national daily in Pakistan, reported recently that the value of the Pakistani rupee versus the U.S. dollar has worsened more than 4,100 percent, from just 4.76 rupees per U.S. dollar 50 years ago, in May 1972, to a whopping 200 rupees per dollar on May 18, 2022. The depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the U.S. dollar continues its downward slide, and it stands at 225 per dollar at the time of writing, further compounding the country’s economic miseries amid dwindling foreign exchange reserves.

Like Sri Lanka, Pakistan has welcomed Chinese investments to support its ailing economy. This is why some analysts argue that heavy Chinese investments in Pakistan pushed the country to the brink of economic collapse. But that narrative is an exaggeration: Most of Pakistan’s problems, especially its economic problems, are the creation of its own mismanagement, lack of planning, political uncertainty, and, above all, the deteriorating relations with neighboring countries that have had traditionally good relations with Pakistan. A case in point is the recent government of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, which came to power in 2018, allegedly with the backing of powerful security establishment. During his tenure, which came to an abrupt end in April 2022 through a no-confidence motion in the parliament, Pakistan’s relations with both Saudi Arabia and Turkey deteriorated. Traditionally close friends of Pakistan, these two countries have previously supported Pakistan in times of need. Meanwhile, China, an all-weather friend of Pakistan, remained dissatisfied with progress on CPEC projects, which slowed down under Khan’s rule. Thus as Pakistan’s economic crisis began to sink in, Islamabad’s friends were less disposed than usual to provide a bail out.

Perhaps most notably, Pakistan’s ties with the United States plummeted. Washington remained furious over Pakistan’s role in supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan, to the extent that U.S. President Joe Biden did not call Khan after becoming president. The downward slide did not stop there. Khan went one step further and visited Russia in February 2022, a move bound to anger the U.S. — it happened to be the very day Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine.

When he was ousted by a no-confidence vote in parliament, Khan further blamed the U.S. for his downfall. In the media and public gatherings, he claimed he was the target of a U.S. conspiracy to remove him from office. Khan’s strategy was to whip up anti-U.S. sentiments in Pakistan in order to gain votes and to woo his political opponents – and it worked. In the recent by-elections in Punjab, the most populous province in the country, his party clinched a majority of seats, thanks to his fiery speeches and the upsurge of inflation that began during his own rule.

Above all, Pakistan’s powerful security establishment has extended its role and influence in all sectors, including politics. It is common knowledge in Pakistan that governments come and go with the military’s approval. But the heavy hand of the security establishment has created a stalemate in the country, preventing it from proceeding on the path of development. Most of Pakistan’s problems, including its economic and political uncertainty, emanate from this issue. For example, Pakistan’s security-centered approach to nearby terrorist groups pushed the country onto the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), with economic consequences. Successive governments have struggled to remove Islamabad from the grey list (and stay off it).

On the other hand, the new government in Islamabad, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, is faced with myriad problems, starting with an economic crisis. In the wake of prevailing economic issues in Pakistan, the Sharif government is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to receive $2 billion in relief funds. Yet, if the prevailing political uncertainty further increases, it will be quite hard to get this package from the IMF. For the purpose of attaining a loan package, Pakistan has reportedly taken several steps to reduce its expenditures, increase energy prices, and improve tax collection, as demanded by the IMF. But these moves are unpopular with the public and could lead to yet another change in government this fall, when elections are due. Moreover, Pakistan has a long history of running to the IMF when economic challenges become dire. Its repeated requests are proof that this is not a long-term solution to Pakistan’s economic woes. As the economic crisis continues to unfold, the parallels to Sri Lanka are becoming alarming. Like Sri Lanka, Pakistan faces a growing shortage of foreign exchange reserves, limiting its ability to import basic necessities like food and fuel. And like Sri Lanka, too, that economic turmoil is mapped onto fertile grounds for political contestation. Should the economic situation bottom out, Pakistan could also spiral into mass protests and a leadership vacuum.

Noted Pakistani columnist Zahid Hussain is one of the voices warning that Pakistan must take action now to avoid Sri Lanka’s fate. “What led to Sri Lanka’s economic collapse is obvious. Crippled by the shortage of foreign exchange, the country has not been able to pay for imports of even essential commodities such as fuel. In fact, the crisis had been building up for many years as the country piled up foreign debts to the tune of $51bn,” he wrote for Dawn, a Pakistani daily.

“…There are many developing countries, including Pakistan, which confront a similar predicament. We may not be in Sri Lanka’s shoes yet, but are not very far off as there are some comparable symptoms.”

Unfortunately, grounded realties tell us that Pakistan is, gradually and slowly, slipping into dire economic and political uncertainty. If the policymakers of Pakistan continue to ignore the warning signs, as they have always done in the past, things may lead to a similar crisis as that unfolding in Sri Lanka. It is high time Pakistan swallowed the bitter pill of hard economic reforms before it is too late.

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Lack of technology prevents Pakistan from producing own Covid vaccine

Despite rising cases of Covid in Pakistan, the South Asian country may not be able to produce its own Covid vaccines due to a lack of technical capacity and unavailability of biotechnology plant to manufacture the latest type of vaccines.

The waiver by World Trade Organization has paved the way for Pakistan to produce jabs using mRNA technology, however, Pakistan does not have a biotechnology plant to manufacture the latest type of vaccines, University of Health Sciences (UHS) Vice Chancellor Dr Javed Akram said, Dawn reported.

Dr Akram, who is also a member of the Scientific Task Force on Covid-19, further said that currently Pfizer and Moderna jabs were the only mRNA vaccines used in Pakistan as he expressed concerns about Pakistan’s ability to take advantage of the waiver, saying that Islamabad does not have a single biotech plant used to produce such vaccines.

“I had contacted Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (PPMA) and they made a consortium to build a biotechnology plant. Even funds were raised by the association, but the government could not give [us] assurance for favourable policies, including tax holiday,” he said, adding that then CJP Nisar had summoned him to brief the court on the issue, reported Dawn.

The issue is still pending in court, he added.

Dr Akram also suggested that Pakistan should capitalise on the opportunity by involving the private sector as it was not the job of the government to establish a biotechnology plant investing billions of rupees.”Health Services Academy Vice Chancellor Dr Shahzad Ali Khan, while talking to Dawn, said: “It is the most advanced technology in which artificially genetic material is produced and injected into the human body to reduce chances of infection.He added, “The mRNA vaccines are beneficial for a large number of diseases and I am hopeful that in future HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) will also be controlled through these jabs.”

Notably, fifteen companies from 15 countries are currently learning how to make mRNA vaccines against Covid-19 at Afrigen Biologics, a South African firm. These countries include Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, Senegal, Nigeria, Tunisia, South Africa, Serbia, Egypt, Kenya, and Ukraine.

https://theprint.in/world/lack-of-technology-prevents-pakistan-from-producing-own-covid-vaccine/1051430/

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Crisis and instability threaten Pakistan’s economy yet again

APARNA PANDE

Pakistan’s backing of anti-Indian, anti-Western extremism has cost it dearly as its new prime minister confronts economic misery, rising discontent and challenges from his predecessor.

Pakistan has so far managed to stave off riots and repay creditors, avoiding an economic meltdown like that seen in Sri Lanka. Still, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s coalition government, which took over in April 2022, is grappling with multiple political and economic crises. Pakistan’s rupee is one of the world’s worst-performing currencies, the country’s foreign exchange reserves are abysmally low, and it has been unable to attract much-needed foreign investment.

Domestic political instability and increased vulnerability to terrorism following the Taliban takeover in neighboring Afghanistan add to the country’s problems. Four years of erratic rule by former cricketer Imran Khan has deeply polarized Pakistani society. Ex-Prime Minister Khan’s claims that his ouster through a parliamentary vote of no confidence was orchestrated by the United States, with help from the army leadership, have had an unsettling effect.

Pakistan’s political class is fragmented. Its society has been radicalized further. The economy is weaker than it was four years ago, and the country is more isolated internationally.  The all-powerful military establishment has been bruised by coming under criticism, first for helping Mr. Khan into office, and now for helping push him out.

Mr. Khan came to power in 2018 through the open backing of the security establishment, but his government was hobbled by poor coalition management and ineffective governance. As Pakistan’s economic crisis grew, and tensions between Prime Minister Khan and the military establishment deepened, a coalition of opposition parties used the opportunity to push a no-confidence motion against him.

Instead of facing the no-confidence motion in parliament and accepting defeat gracefully, Mr. Khan sought to hold on to power through extra-constitutional means. In the end, the Supreme Court of Pakistan intervened, supported behind closed doors by the army top brass, to ensure that the no-confidence vote took place, and a new government was sworn in.

If Pakistan’s economic crisis continues, the public may forget that it was Prime Minister Khan who is responsible for the mess

Mr. Sharif, the current prime minister, is a former chief minister of Punjab state, and the younger brother of Nawaz Sharif, a three-time prime minister. Shahbaz Sharif is a good administrator but lacks the national-level political experience critical to managing a disparate coalition. Mr. Khan, in the meantime, is applying pressure on the government and the military establishment both through social media and street protests.

Pakistan badly needs to get back on track with an International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending program, both to get through its immediate balance of payments difficulties as well as for longer-term economic stability. The political environment makes tough economic decisions, like ending subsidies and raising taxes, difficult to implement.

Economic and political challenges

Pakistan’s current crisis is the culmination of decades of fraught policies. The desire to combat a perceived existential threat from India, the country from which Pakistan was carved out in 1947, resulted in decades of unsustainable military expenditure that depended on foreign, historically American, support.

That external backing ended in part because of changing geopolitics. Rival India, not Pakistan, is now America’s ally of choice. Pakistan’s policy in Afghanistan and its support for jihadi terrorist groups targeting India have also led to a loss of Western support. Unable, or unwilling, to raise revenue from taxes and economic expansion, Pakistan has repeatedly turned to either multilateral institutions or friendly countries – in the Arab Middle East and China – for budgetary support.

The new prime minister and his foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, have indicated their desire to reframe U.S.-Pakistan relations. However, to truly repair relations with Washington, Pakistan would have to completely revise its foreign and security policy, especially vis-a-vis India and China, which might not be possible in the short term.

Pakistan’s economy remains dependent on the export of cotton textiles, with little investment in diversification. The literacy rate stands at 52 percent, the lowest in South Asia, resulting in an unskilled labor force that migrates primarily to the Gulf and sends remittances back. Pakistan’s ratio of taxes to gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the lowest in the world and key segments of the economy, such as agriculture and some military-run corporations, are exempt from income tax. Instead of raising revenue through taxes, governments have preferred to keep giving subsidies to avoid political and social unrest.

A direct military coup is the least likely scenario but cannot be ruled out.

Mr. Khan’s poor management and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic left Pakistan’s economy badly battered. He changed finance ministers four times in three and a half years and changed his mind on trade and investment policies frequently. In addition to a $6 billion loan from the IMF, over the last four years, Pakistan has borrowed $10 billion altogether from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and China.

To forestall balance of payments difficulties, Pakistan borrowed in 2019 from the IMF – its 22nd loan from the institution since 1958. Pakistan has a pattern of drawing the first one or two tranches from the IMF and then abandoning the program to avoid fulfilling stringent conditions for economic restructuring. Mr. Khan’s government also initially agreed to the IMF’s demands to lower fuel subsidies in February 2022 but reinstated them once its ouster became imminent.

Though it was a difficult decision politically, Mr. Sharif’s government has rolled back the fuel subsidies and the IMF is expected to release the next tranche of its loan soon. But there is still no quick fix for Pakistan’s economic predicament. Rising utility costs and food prices, and a potential hike in interest rates, will slow industrial activity. That would hurt employment and add to the likelihood of street protests that are already being incited by Mr. Khan and his followers.

This vicious cycle will be difficult to break, even more so at a time when the global economy is recovering from the dual blows of Covid-19 and Russia’s war on Ukraine. Further, Pakistan has refused to open trade with its largest neighbor, India, because it is anathema to Pakistan’s ubiquitous security establishment.

For decades, Pakistan’s military establishment has intervened, directly and indirectly, in Pakistani politics to choose winners and losers. They once chose Mr. Khan but have now discarded him. The former prime minister is using the army’s own playbook against them: blaming everything on a foreign conspiracy, using anti-Americanism and pan-Islamism to rally support on the streets, and labeling anyone who disagrees with him – including military leaders – as anti-national.

The army is finding it difficult to fight an ideology it crafted and the monsters that it created. There are enough people within the lower and middle ranks of the military, in the media, and within the middle class in Pakistani society who believe Mr. Khan’s narrative, as it echoes what is taught in the educational curriculum.

Scenarios

The three key actors right now are the coalition government, the military-intelligence establishment and ex-Prime Minister Khan. The current army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, is reluctant to intervene in politics directly and is still bruised from supporting Mr. Khan for the last four years. Prime Minister Sharif is a good administrator, but his experience in provincial politics might not transfer effectively to national politics. The quicker he solves some of Pakistan’s economic challenges, the better it is for him, irrespective of when the next elections are held.

If Pakistan’s economic crisis continues, the public may forget that it was Prime Minister Khan who is responsible for the mess. Mr. Khan will try to generate chaos, believing that the more he pushes Pakistan to the brink, the more the army is likely to help bring him back to power as the savior.

A wild card in all these scenarios is the role of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, which could upend the situation by disallowing certain politicians from participating in elections or striking down policies. Historically the court has sided with the military-intelligence establishment. Recent years, however, have witnessed judicial activism that has underlying Islamist and populist elements.

The timing of the next elections is important. The next army chief is scheduled to be appointed by the prime minister in November. All major actors – the political parties, the army, and the judiciary – would like their favored person to be prime minister when that decision is made.

The most likely scenario is that things continue as they are right now with the coalition government managing to stay afloat with tacit backing from the military. Neither the coalition government nor the army have any incentive in rocking this rickety boat and both need the next tranche of the IMF loan to come through quickly. Mr. Khan’s momentum is dissipating and, as of now, he has backed off when threatened with imprisonment.

In this scenario, Prime Minister Sharif would extend the current army chief’s tenure by a year and hold general elections, in which his coalition would then win the army’s support. Alternatively, Mr. Sharif could appoint a new army chief as advised by the incumbent.

If the IMF delays the next tranche of its loan and even friendly Gulf states – like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia – are slow to offer support, there could be a real threat of Pakistan’s default on debts. In that second, less likely, scenario, the army might install an interim caretaker government to stabilize the economy. Such a caretaker government would comprise technocrats and retired politicians and judges and would have a limited mandate.

A direct military coup is the least likely scenario but cannot be ruled out. If the politicians continue to squabble, and an interim government fails to restore economic health, General Bajwa or his successor could take over, promising to clean up the political and economic mess. Deep divisions within the army make such a scenario possible but not very likely. If Mr. Khan and his reverential following threaten violence and the current prime minister asks the army to put down the violence, the possibility of direct army intervention would increase.

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/pakistan-crisis-economy/