To the relief of millions in Libya and millions more around the world, the West has unsheathed the sword against the resurgent forces of the loathsome Colonel Muammar Gaddafi.
Explaining America's decision, Barack Obama said: ''Left unchecked, we have every reason to believe that Gaddafi would commit atrocities against his people …
''The calls of the Libyan people for help would go unanswered. The democratic values that we stand for would be overrun. Moreover, the words of the international community would be rendered hollow …
''Our focus has been clear: protecting innocent civilians within Libya, and holding the Gaddafi regime accountable.''
So who will protect innocent civilians against the dictators who are killing them in other Arab countries today - Bahrain, Yemen, Syria? Who will hold these regimes accountable?
In the tiny, prosperous island kingdom of Bahrain, with a population of 1.2 million, of whom half are expats, the people had been protesting peacefully in Pearl Square in the centre of the capital, Manama, inspired by the so-called Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.
The graceful white arches of the modern monument in the square symbolised the pearl-diving industry which had been the region's main industry before the discovery of oil. The protesters were asking for basic political rights, without calling for the end of the Khalifah family's rule.
It was only when a night raid by police against sleeping demonstrators killed three of them on February 17 that the protesters' demands broadened to include the downfall of the monarchy.
The protest grew and persisted until an extraordinary crackdown last week. With the world's attention on Japan's calamity, the repression largely escaped notice But it was remarkable not only for its violence but for its breadth.
Two neighbouring monarchies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, sent a combined total of 2000 soldiers and police into Bahrain in an ostentatious show of support for the regime.
The regime then set about clearing Pearl Square by force, killing more protesters in the process, arresting their leaders, and shocking many observers by staging a military takeover of the main hospital. A total of 11 protesters and four police officers have been killed, according to the opposition, and hundreds have been wounded. The health minister, half a dozen members of the king's council and a clutch of top judges have resigned in protest. In a petty postscript, the regime demolished the Pearl Square monument, a symbol of nationhood that had become a rallying point for the protesters.
The message that the Arab kingdoms sent through this authoritarian internationalism was unmistakeable: ''There will be no Arab Spring here, only an Arab Winter. We will not only repress you, our people, but we will extend our repression across borders to repress all the peoples of the Arabian Peninsula. We authoritarian monarchs will stand with each other against you.''
Authoritarians of the world, unite!
This confrontation has a sectarian dimension, too: the monarchies are all Sunni Muslim families, and they are all ruling over populations with Shiite majorities.
''We think what is happening in Bahrain is no different to what was happening in Libya,'' said Ibrahim Mattar, the leader of the biggest of the Shiite opposition parties, Wefaq. ''Bahrain is very small so the deaths are significant for a country where Bahrainis are only 600,000.''
Yet the West's reaction here has been a very different one, confined to the clucking of tongues and urgings to both sides to engage is peaceful dialogue.
Why the differing response? ''It's not rocket science,'' says the Lowy Institute's Middle East expert, Anthony Bubalo. ''The US Fifth Fleet is based there. It's a critical supporter of the West in the Persian Gulf.''
And then there are the regimes of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Like Bahrain, these two are also US allies and friends. Both are important oil exporters. And both, like the Bahrainis and the US, are sworn enemies of Iran.
Australia has its own special interest in the UAE, in addition to a solid economic relationship. Although it has been announced, it's still a little-known fact that Australia has based its Middle East defence logistics in the UAE. Along with the hardware, Australia has about 500 defence personnel based permanently there.
So if the Saudis and the Emiratis have a concern about Bahrain, that means the US and Australia are obliged to take it seriously. Bubalo says: ''The absolute concern for the Saudis and the Emiratis is that they don't want a Lebanon on their doorstep.
''Their central concern is that a Hezbollah-type organisation'' - a political party and welfare organisation but also a sponsor of terrorism, operating in Lebanon but supported by Iran - ''could establish a foothold in Bahrain. Whether we see that as realistic or not, it's what they are afraid of.''
So there will be no Western military intervention into Bahrain. The king can do as he pleases, as far as the West is concerned. And so can the monarchs of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
And then there's Yemen. The President of this poor Arab republic, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has ruled for 33 years. And though vast protest rallies persuaded him to announce that he'd retire in 2013, he's in no special hurry.
Last week he sent his snipers out to murder 41 people in a crowd of protesters. At least 45 civilians were killed and more than 200 injured. Claiming to be shocked, Saleh then declared a state of emergency.
What about Yemen? Will there be a Western intervention to protect the people of Yemen and hold the regime accountable?
''No, we won't be doing anything in Yemen because there's a significant al-Qaeda presence there. We're already having enough trouble building co-operation with the Yemeni government trying to address that,'' says Bubalo. Besides, the Saudis would oppose any Western adventurism in Yemen, part of their sphere of influence.
This double standard - aggressively intervening to protect innocent civilians in Libya, but staring at the ceiling and whistling as dictators murder their people in Bahrain and Yemen - is already apparent. ''If things keep getting worse in Yemen, where it's potentially a lot bloodier, then it's going to become increasingly uncomfortable for the West,'' Bubalo observes.
So the answer is that no one will protect the innocent civilians of Bahrain and Yemen. The West's words will indeed be hollow.
Hypocrisy? Yes. But also realism. As one of the eminent figures in Australian foreign policy, Owen Harries, puts it: ''The West seems committed to pursuing two incompatible ends in the Middle East.
''One is democracy, the other is stability. The West fluctuates between emphasis on one and then the other. Democracy, once it's in place, is a stabilising force. But the process of getting there is highly destabilising.''
The intervention in Libya is not a precedent. Pity the Arab peoples who expect it will be.
Peter Hartcher is the international editor.
No comments:
Post a Comment