Pakistan: Time for truth, not triumphalism

One would imagine that after his recent ‘religious’ experience, Minister for Defence, Water and Power Khawaja Asif would have learnt the importance of not making absurdly optimistic claims, as himself stated in the context of load shedding. But it appears he has not. On Saturday the minister told the press that the terrorist command and control centre based in North Wazrisitan (NW) had been crippled and that the operation was proceeding as planned. However, given that the military has encountered relatively little resistance so far aside from isolated pockets, we have to wonder what the plan is. So far the military says it has cleared Miranshah and made inroads into Mirali while retaking and clearing the villages of Boya and Degan in the surrounding area. Four hundred militants have reportedly been killed but in the absence of independent verification, doubts are beginning to surface about whether the operation is as effective as is being claimed. The capture of Adnan Rashid, a high-value terrorist commander, in South Waziristan (SW) several days ago indicates that despite a tight military cordon of NW, many terrorists managed to escape, some to other Agencies, others across the border to Afghanistan. If true, this means that instead of being disabled completely, the terrorist strategy and planning infrastructure has moved as well, presumably to Afghanistan where the military says several of the Pakistani Taliban’s top commanders have fled, including its leader Mullah Fazlullah. While the military achieved the element of surprise in its targeted strikes before the operation, dealing a series of blows to the terrorists that were noticeably devastating, Zarb-e-Azb was trumpeted well beforehand, giving the militants time to disperse. Guerilla strategy is based on the principle of retreating in the face of overwhelming force; survival is in itself a victory for the asymmetrical fighter. It seems clear that while the operation has managed to deal a blow to the terrorists, it is not quite a coup de grace. Khawaja Asif’s triumphalism seems ill advised in light of this and with fear of backlash in the cities growing after the discovery of a terrorist hideout just a few miles away from the Prime Minister’s (PM’s) residence in Raiwind. From what we know about the terrorists, they are capable of operating in discrete and independent cells, designed to spread terror or strike high-value targets as they present themselves. If many have managed to escape then the operation is just beginning, Khawaja Asif’s claims notwithstanding.

Speculation about the conduct and goals of the operation is also growing after a US drone strike on Saturday destroyed a militant training camp in Datta Khel, 40 kilometers north of Miranshah. Military officials denied that there was any coordination between the US and Pakistan but the resumption of drone strikes at the same time as the launch of the operation is conspicuous by its timing. Officials say that 15 members of the Punjabi Taliban and four Uzbek fighters were killed in the strike, including two “important” commanders. In the past such strikes were routinely condemned by the military and the government before reports emerged that Pakistan had on occasion asked the US to launch drones when high-value targets were identified. This caused uproar among the public about violations of Pakistani sovereignty, hence denials since then of cooperation between the two countries are largely seen as meant for public consumption. This should tell the government and military that the lack of information being given to the public is beginning to have a negative effect on the conduct of the operation itself. Polls say that most Pakistanis now view terrorism as a greater threat than the US. With NATO poised to exit Afghanistan, many people will be worried that without help from across the border, terrorism may not be eliminated. It is time for the military and the government to let the public know what they know and be clear about the results, goals, and concerns the operation has engendered. They must trust the Pakistani people because this is part of building the narrative against terrorism and creating a viable alternative to militant ideology. We do not want to see militants disappear from NW today only to reappear in Islamabad or Lahore tomorrow.