Don't expect Afghanistan to change with this list of presidential candidates

The imminent Afghan elections are historic, no doubt, but the line-up of familiar faces points towards parochialism and the past You would think the final list of candidates for one of the most important presidential elections in Afghanistan's history, and the country's first democratic transfer of power, would provide some excitement. Instead there is little to cheer about. The list comprises many old faces, and it raises questions as to whether the poll due to take place on Saturday will be truly representative across ethnic lines.

All the eight candidates in this Afghan-managed and Afghan-led election are from the majority Pashtun ethnic group, with two, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and Zalmay Rassoul, leading the polls. Only one lead candidate, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, is half Pashtun and half Tajik.

Although Pashtun make up 42% of the poulation, the main non-Pashtun groups combined – Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks– also represent a sizeable proportion of the population at over 45%. Yet prominent political figures from these groups, such as Hazara leaders Karim Khalili and Mohammad Mohaghegh, or the powerful Uzbek leader General Abdul Rashid Dostum, are running mates not presidential candidates, and one of the most important Tajik political players, Atta Muhammad Noor, has refrained from participating. Instead there have been strange alliances. Ghani, a respected former World Bank official and finance minister, an advocate of human rights, who says his main agenda is the rule of law, has chosen Dostum as his running mate. Dostum stands accused of a string of alleged war crimes and Ghani openly criticised President Karzai for choosing Dostum as running mate in 2009 elections. Another point to consider is that both Ghani and Rassoul have over the past 12 years held top posts in President Karzai's cabinets, and if elected would probably allow him a strong say in the country's future. They have both made statements indicating that they see him as a man of influence. So their cabinets are very likely to be the Karzai team reshuffled.

Abdullah was also the foreign minister in President Karzai's first cabinet, but in the past eight years he has been a consistent voice of opposition. He refused to do a deal with Karzai after finishing runner-up in the 2009 elections. He has a strong following among Tajiks and those who remember him as the right hand man of the iconic Tajik commander, Ahmad Shah Massoud. However, many would regard this association as a negative. Although most initial polls indicate strong support for Abdullah, it is not clear he could hold an outright majority. To do this he would need to win a large portion of the Pashtun votes.

There are still more familiar faces from the past. Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, who is said to have had ties to Osama bin Laden; Gul Agha Sherzai, the former mayor of Jalalabad and a former warlord; and Qutbuddin Helal, the spokesperson for another warlord, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, with links to the Taliban.

So when people of Afghanistan go to the polls on Saturday they will see many of the old faces, either as presidential candidates or running mates: most of them reminders of a past they would really like to forget.

Even if we take the most positive view that the elections on 5 April will be inclusive, with reasonable security and minimal fraud, then the most likely outcome is that none of the three main contenders will win an outright majority. In that case the two main Pashtun contenders – Rassoul and Ghani – would unite and force Abdullah out of the race.

That result would lead to a reshuffled Karzai cabinet, possibly with increased influence for warlords and the Taliban. While the Taliban machinery of terror continues to kill civilians, including hundreds of Muslim women and children, that is not a cabinet that would bring any hope to the people of Afghanistan.

At this crucial juncture in Afghanistan's transition, only a credible political transition can provide stability. This could only be gained through a popular mandate across ethnic lines for a wider political, economic and social agenda – including peace and reconciliation.