Turkey: The End of Erdogan

There's a very big story developing in Turkey that all foreign policy mavens should be watching closely.

Exactly how big remains to be seen, but the stakes are huge. At issue: Will the decade-long domination of Turkish politics by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP) continue? Or is the Erdogan era about to come crashing down, fatally weakened by scandal, infighting, and authoritarian overreach? Early Tuesday morning, police in Istanbul and Ankara carried out a wave of stunning arrests that included powerful businessmen, the sons of three cabinet ministers, and the head of an important state-owned financial institution, Halkbank. The operation flowed from a series of corruption-related investigations that have apparently been underway for a year or more. All the key targets swept up in the raids are closely linked to Erdogan's government.

These dramatic events were simply the latest escalation in a long-simmering battle royale within the AKP's Islamist coalition.

It seems almost certain to get worse, even much worse -- especially in the run-up to a series of all-important local, presidential and parliamentary elections that are scheduled to kick off in March 2014. Gulen's allies in the police and prosecutor's office have already leaked a series of gory details about the corruption probe: Millions of dollars found stashed away in shoeboxes and safes belonging to the head of Halkbank and the Turkish interior minister's son.

Short of that, it's still almost certainly the case that Erdogan's political fortunes have been seriously weakened. Starting with his intolerant, imperious, and menacing response to Gezi six months ago, he's clearly lost his golden touch. He's making mistakes and miscalculations, repeatedly.

He appears increasingly erratic, authoritarian, and thuggish. He's alienating enemies, to be sure, but allies as well -- not just among the Gulenists, but within his own camp, too. His aura of invincibility has been cracked. The widespread fear he induced in large swathes of Turkish society has been partially breached. For the first time in a decade, there are signs that he may be vulnerable politically.