Pakistan at the crossroads

The US Congress is on the verge of passing a National Defence Authorization Bill that places conditionalities on Pakistan’s military aid, including Coalition Support Funds reimbursements. The aid has been made contingent on the US Defence Secretary certifying to Congress that NATO’s supply route through Pakistan is open and that the country is taking demonstrable action against al Qaeda and other militant groups active along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. On his recent visit to Pakistan, US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel had said that there are many options open to the US to withdraw equipment from Afghanistan, and all of them more or less are in its use. However, the route passing through Pakistan being less expensive and less cumbersome, is required to be kept open, unhindered, to facilitate the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Hagel had also warned Pakistan about the changing mood in Congress regarding the supply line being blocked as a protest against drone strikes. The federal government has done nothing about the PTI’s blockade. Now with matters coming to a head, it has become necessary for the federal government to intervene and stop the PTI from making things more problematic for the country. PTI wants the US to leave this region and now when that moment has arrived, Imran Khan’s preying on the NATO supply routes to put pressure on the US smacks of impatience and meddling in foreign policy. Parties in power in the provinces are not permitted constitutionally to interfere in matters that could affect the relationship between Pakistan and other countries, that too adversely.

As far as the NATO supply lines are concerned, it cannot be taken as an open and shut case. Layers of legal and strategic complexities bind Pakistan from moving against the NATO routes. Pakistan’s position is too weak to demand treatment of choice from the US, especially when the country has been losing leverage for not fulfilling its commitment to eradicate militancy from the country. Being a frontline ally in the war against terrorism, Pakistan’s first obligation was to assist the US in rooting out militancy from Afghanistan. On the contrary it became a safe haven for the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan’s credibility to fight militancy is so poor that the US defence authorisation bill seeking certification from the Defence Secretary that Pakistan is taking demonstrable actions against al Qaeda and other militant groups active along the Pak-Afghan border and that the military and other aid to Pakistan would not be used against ethnic groups such as the Baloch, Sindhi and Hazara or religious minorities such as Christians, Hindus and Ahmedis poses a tall order. The bill also requires Pakistan to diminish the threats posed by Improvised Explosive Devices and cross-border firing attacks against US coalition and Afghan security forces in Afghanistan.

Imran Khan and for that matter the federal government have to come to terms with the reality that Pakistan is not in a position to pull the US’s strings. Inviting US wrath at this time might become detrimental for Pakistan and invite international isolation. Afghanistan is still not in a settled state and requires international assistance, especially that of the US to maintain security, and Pakistan’s position in this equation is very crucial. That holds the promise of both opportunity and risk.