Stakes high in Pakistan election

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Voters in Pakistan go to the polls on May 11 for provincial assembly elections and the results will not matter as much as the process, a former ambassador to Pakistan said Monday. In a telephone discussion arranged by the Council on Foreign Relations, former Ambassador Ryan Crocker offered scenarios for both tragedy and hope in the upcoming elections. "The stakes, I think, are very high for the United States," Crocker said. "Pakistan is a country of 180-plus million people. It, of course, possesses nuclear weapons. And since my time there as ambassador, 2004 to 2007, I've seen almost all the trend lines running the wrong way. There are more extremist groups in Pakistan than when I was there, and they are targeting the Pakistani state, military and civilian. We've seen the press reports of the ascendancy of the Taliban in Karachi, one of the world's largest cities." Pakistan, he added, "is in a state of institutional failure. It's not a failed state, but you could argue it is a failing state." It does not matter who wins, Crocker said, but whether the military intervenes in the voting process. Pakistan elected a civilian government five years ago, and it is necessary for the country to have a second five-year term of civilian rule to avoid internal collapse. "I don't think there is much appetite in the Pakistani military to get itself involved in the electoral process, certainly not under current management," Crocker said. "So as long as there is not widespread disorder, I would be reasonably confident that the military will keep its distance." There were massive election rallies in Pakistan on Sunday, Crocker said. There was isolated violence but the events went reasonably well, he said. All in all, 2013 could be an extremely eventful year in Pakistan, according to Daniel Markey, a senior fellow at the CFR. "In September, President Zardari will reach the end of his term," Markey said. "And although it's possible that he will stay on, it's also quite possible that he will be voted out, too. In November, the army chief is slated to leave office. And in December another major power player in Pakistani politics and in government, is the supreme court chief justice, is slated to retire. So all in all, you could see at the end of this year an entirely different cast of characters in charge in Islamabad."