Feeding 10 billion people in 2050

It is only 12 years since the six billion mark was reached. Among these increase (between 1950-2005) rich world added roughly 400 million while developing world added 3.5 billion people. Whilst 100 years ago human population stood at 1.6 billion, in 1990 the figure shot up to 5.5 billion and is projected to grow to as high as 10 billion in 2050, if recent rate of 80 to 100 million per year growth continues unchecked. According to United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, much of the demographic changes up to 2050 will take place in the less developed regions - least able to ensure the health, stability, and prosperity of its citizens. While many factors affect the rates of population growth, historical analyses suggest income levels, education, women empowerment, social tradition and religious belief are strongly linked with population growth. For example, although United Kingdom a rich country, birth rates among immigrant mothers (usually poor, illiterate and house wives by profession) is double compared to the white British. Economists identify four related menaces to our civilization: global warming, population explosion, extreme poverty, particularly in Africa, and quarrelsome and ineffective world government. Among them one of the greatest challenges of twenty-first century is meeting society's growing food needs. “Growth of population, together with related environmental and economic consequences, is the single most important issue the world, as a whole, has to face”, world’s scientific community has warned. There is a sense that the world is becoming just less of everything - rice, energy, water, land, credit - to go around. Food riots (in 2008) from Haiti to Bangladesh to Cameroon to Egypt and on going horsemeat scandal in Europe is a stark reminder of this inadequacy. When the global population was 5.5 billion people in 1990, there were more than 1 billion people who went hungry everyday which will be more than 2 billion by 2050 and set to worsen condition as increasing heat waves reverse the rising crop yields seen over the last 50 years along with rising greenhouse gas emissions and resource depletion, according to new research. Thomas Malthus, on his essay the Principle of Population in 1798 famously said "power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Humans reproducing more rapidly than the supply of food could grow." Those who disagree with Malthus say, he underestimated the power of agricultural science and innovative practices resulting in higher productivity. But when it comes to the question of whether it will be possible to feed these 10 billion people, opinions diverge widely between optimists and pessimists. Those who are optimistic believe, today's population growth is good for development. We have got more than enough land upon which to collectively sustain ourselves, we just need to use it more wisely and fairly. Pessimists, on the other hand, argue population growth has already gone too far to avoid disaster. Population pressure is driving farmers to exploit soils, causing soil degradation and inevitably decline in productivity. They believe whatever practicable methods are used; it will not be possible to produce the crops necessary to support the world population in the longer run. But one thing is clear: with existing resources, feeding 10 billion people will be a major challenge and will shape global geopolitics. On its special issue on food, the famous Foreign Policy magazine argues , “ to feed its growing population 70 per cent more food production will be needed by 2050 but there will be more arid land unsuitable for crop production.” The immediate question may be asked: Does the world have available land to produce necessary crops in sufficient quantities. Among other challenges it could include climatic factors, water availability, factors related to crop nutrition and soil quality, and economic and environmental factors related to intensified land use. The FAO in association with UNESCO estimates the total area of soils that might be used for arable crop production appears to be about 3,000 million hectors. The area of arable land currently in use is about 1.5 to 1.8 billion hectors. Thus, there could be as much as 1.2 to 1.5 billion hectors of potential arable land not currently cultivated. Although modern humanity was born about ten thousand years ago with the invention of agriculture their survival still depends on the natural resources such as soil, water and sunlight to grow food. There have also been many dire warnings that the methods that must be used to produce the necessary crops will lead to soil degradation and environmental pollution. Lester R. Brown argues civilization can survive the loss of its oil reserves, but it cannot survive the loss of its soil reserve. Many experts in this field reached the conclusion that the soils of the world were able to support a population in access of 8 billion but about 82 countries will be "at risk" because they will not be able to produce sufficient food for their population. In the past, increases in crop production came mainly from extension of arable lands. But now that era is coming to an end in some of the more agriculturally advanced countries, where farmers are already using all available technologies and lands to raise yields, such as Japan and China (one-third of world's rice producer). Meanwhile, wheat yields have plateaued in Britain, France, and Germany - Western Europe's three largest wheat producers. Similarly, the option of increasing food production by cultivating more land is rapidly disappearing in Asia and in the Middle East. In Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, land is available for further exploitation, but it is often of low inherent fertility and easily and rapidly degraded, or its use may be inhibited by high access of infrastructure costs. Countries in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East seem unlikely to be able to grow the food they need. Many African countries cannot afford the fertilizers and other inputs that are necessary, and, without a major improvement in their economies, will depend increasingly on aid. These developments indicate, in the not too distant future, the world will become almost entirely dependent on further increases in yield, and if the population of the world is to be maintained, it is essential that the yields be produced on a sustainable basis. Lecturing in London's City Annual Food Summit recently, Nestle CEO Paul Buckle said “ water scarcity would be the cause of massive food shortages within the next 15-20 years. There will be up to 30 per cent shortfalls in global cereal production by 2030 due to water scarcity, a loss equivalent to the entire grain crops of India and the United States combined. This shortage will lead to price increase and volatility.” To address the world's future food security and sustainability, a collective public policy response is needed. It needs to focus not only on agricultural policy, but on a structure that integrates it with energy, population, and water policies, each of which directly affects food security. Increase in yield per crop of the cereal staples that has allowed food production to match the increase in population and reducing food-waste could also be a valuable tool. Buckley pointed out that almost one-third of the food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted globally, which amounts to about 1.3 billion tones per year.