Islamist terrorism may end by 2030

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com

A landmark US intelligence report released on Monday says the "current Islamist phase of terrorism" might end by 2030, but violent terrorism itself is unlikely to die completely and might evolve into bloodless forms of economic and financial terrorism. Many states might continue to use terrorist group out of a strong sense of insecurity, although the costs to a regime of directly supporting terrorists looks set to become even greater as international cooperation increase, according to the report Global Trends 2030. But with more widespread access to lethal and disruptive technologies, individuals who are experts in such niche areas as cyber systems might sell their services to the highest bidder, including terrorists who would focus less on causing mass casualties and more on creating widespread economic and financial disruptions, it warned. The report has a dismal prognosis for Pakistan, widely considered the epicenter of terrorism, ranking the country 12th among 15 countries that have a high risk of failure in a list that is topped by Somalia and includes Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. Bangladesh, which was ranked 11th in the last such report issued in 2008, is now considered stable and has been moved out of the list. Although the report said South Asia would continue to face internal and external shocks during the next 15-20 years, including tensions between India and Pakistan over resources, it saw New Delhi's "power advantage" relative to Islamabad growing rapidly. India's economy is already nearly eight times as large as Pakistan's; by 2030 that ratio could easily be more than 16-to-1, it said. In fact, to the likely dismay of Indian planners who factor in Pakistan's economic growth and stability for peace-making prospects, the country does not even find mention as a second level economy such as Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Africa, Mexico, Turkey, that the report countsin a list of middle tier that will also rise by 2030. "Low growth, rising food prices, and energy shortages will pose stiff challenges to governance in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghanistan's and Pakistan's youth bulges are large -- similar in size to those found in many African countries. When these youth bulges are combined with a slow-growing economy, they portend increased instability," the report warns. India, the report says, is in a better position, benefiting from higher growth, but it will still be challenged to find jobs for its large youth population. Inequality, lack of infrastructure, and education deficiencies are key weaknesses in India. "The neighborhood has always had a profound influence on internal developments, increasing the sense of insecurity and bolstering military outlays. Conflict could erupt and spread under numerous scenarios," the report warns, adding that conflicting strategic goals, widespread distrust, and hedging strategies by all the parties will make it difficult for them to develop a strong regional security framework.