Sunday, April 29, 2012

Security dilemma in Asia needs fresh input

The Pakistani military announced Wednesday the successful test of a mid-range nuclear capable missile. The global media in general perceived it as a reaction to India's launch of the Agni-V
on April 19. At the same time, speculation about North Korea's third nuclear test has been swirling. Asian countries are obviously addicted to pursuing a strategic strike capability. There is no convincing global standard for whether a country should have a long-range nuclear strike ability. The world has long had an oversupply of weapons. Weapons of mass destruction are proliferating, making their management more difficult. Countries developing strategic strike weapons should be persuaded to give up this desire, but their aim does have its own logic. The long-term reduction of regional tensions will not be possible unless persuasion is coupled with efforts to alleviate countries' sense of insecurity. Pakistan's retaliatory tests of mid and long-range missiles were expected before New Delhi's Agni-V missile launch. Both India and Pakistan have a nuclear deterrent or neither side has one, it is difficult to tell which scenario is more positive for the stability of South Asia. China firmly opposes new nuclear tests by Pyongyang. If North Korea insists on doing so, China is unlikely to help Pyongyang shield itself from diplomatic consequences. But Washington, Seoul and Tokyo should seriously consider granting more strategic space to the North. Pressing Pyongyang too tightly often leads to these tense moments. Standpoints and principles decide what is right and wrong. Countries' clout and the fragile order of Asia today are also factors in making the right judgment. Weak countries, if challenging this grain, are going against the interests of regional stability as well as their own. But the security pursuit of weaker countries should not be simply dismissed. Major powers should take more initiative in facilitating the communication. The understanding of the US, South Korea and Japan toward North Korea, and India's understanding toward Pakistan are minimal compared to the hostility between them. As the country with the largest comprehensive strength in Asia, China is trapped in a combination of regional complex issues. It is making efforts to help reach more agreements within Asia, including curbing its reaction to disputes at times to create possibilities for consultation. The US, China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea are trapped in a security dilemma. Among them, China is the most moderate. Strategic mistrust is toxic to Asia. At this time, it is important the stronger sides avoid being overly assertive. It has been rare for small countries to be brought to their knees by deterrence. Washington and its Asian allies should try more conciliatory approaches. We hope South Asia is not heading toward a vicious arms race, and that a new nuclear test will not happen in North Korea. To avoid these requires much more actions than just chanting slogans. Washington needs to understand the mentality of Asian countries, and make some real contributions to the region.

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