Sunday, August 8, 2010

Obama's foreign policy scorecard

With the midterm elections preparing to move into high gear, domestic policy will be in the spotlight, eclipsing foreign policy. But as the United States tries to wind down two wars, pushes peace negotiations elsewhere, seeks to stop the spread of nuclear of weapons in at least two hot spots and works to restore an even economic keel, foreign policy is never out of the turmoil. Here is a scorecard of the major issues facing the Obama administration’s foreign policy.

AFGHANISTAN

The United States and its allies have been fighting in Afghanistan for nine years, having displaced the Taliban government, which offered the terrorist group Al Qaeda a base from which to operate. The goal, President Obama said at a news conference on June 27, is to ensure “Afghanistan is stable, can stand on its own two feet when it comes to security issues, and is not a base for terrorist activities launched against the United States of America.”

In the short term, Obama has proposed adding 30,000 troops to the 68,000 already there and to begin a draw-down by the summer of 2011, depending on the situation. The role of the troops, the president said, is to provide the “Afghan government the space and the time to build up its security forces, for us to be able to help blunt the momentum of the Taliban, to clear some of the areas in which the Taliban had gotten a very fierce foothold, to start moving Afghan security forces in -- even as we are improving governance and we’re improving the legitimacy and credibility of the civilian government.”

To achieve that goal, the U.S. and its allies are prepared to be involved in Afghanistan for a long time, even beyond the scheduled departure of troops. Afghanistan officials have begun talks with some elements of the Taliban, but it is unclear whether the negotiations are going anywhere. “We’re going to have to have a political solution, not simply a military solution,” Obama recently said.
IRAQ

The United States and allies invaded Iraq in 2003, toppled Saddam Hussein from power and have been fighting there ever since. Currently, various Iraqi groups are battling over who will form what type of government that will be responsible for security and rebuilding the nation.

U.S. policy is based on the withdrawal of American combat troops on Aug. 31, but about 50,000 troops will remain. They will be responsible for some fighting in conjunction with local soldiers, but the nature of the U.S. role will change from “a military lead to a civilian lead,” according to the Obama administration. The U.S. also expects to continue to be engaged in Iraq for the long term.

The problem area for the U.S. is with whom it will partner in Iraq. Negotiations are continuing among various Iraqi parties and the U.S. position is that it favors no specific candidate or outcome to the talks.

There are however, three broad goals, according to the Obama administration as explained by officials over the July 4th weekend in Baghdad. There should be no outside interference in the talks, a reference to Iran, which backs some Shiites. The U.S. would like as broad a government as possible so that it is stable given the ethnic divisions in Iraq and wants the ministries to be run by competent individuals who get the government working and delivering services.
PALESTINIAN-ISRAEL RELATIONS

The United States is committed to a two-state solution, Israel and a Palestinian state, composed of the West Bank and Gaza. While that is the long term goal, in the immediate future, the Obama administration would be happy to get Israel and the moderate Palestinian elements talking in any forum, either directly or through proximity talks and backs so-called confidence-building steps to bring the parties together. The issues have been the same for decades: borders, security, refugees and the status of Jerusalem.

At his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Obama insisted again that the bond between their countries is unbreakable. Both pledged to work toward peace.

But problems persist, including Israeli construction in parts of east Jerusalem claimed by both sides. Hamas, deemed by Israel and the West to be a terrorist group, does not recognize Israel’s right to exist. Hamas controls Gaza, which is under blockade by Israel, which is attacked by rockets from across the border.

NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

There are two broad areas, first stopping the spread of nuclear weapons, principally to North Korea and Iran. The other is continuing efforts by the United States and Russia to defuse their nuclear arsenals.

The latter is the easy one. The United States and Russia have negotiated a new arms reduction treaty with the Russia that is pending in the Senate. Obama has urged quick ratification.

More difficult is the policy to prevent the spread of weapons, particularly to Iran. The U.S. policy is to toughen sanctions against the Islamic Republic in the hope that Iran will give up processing nuclear material and seek to develop a delivery system for a weapon.

Obama recently signed the law establishing the latest round of sanctions, described as the toughest to date. The U.S. has also pushed for tougher sanctions in the United Nations.

“With these sanctions -— along with others —- we are striking at the heart of the Iranian government’s ability to fund and develop its nuclear program. We’re showing the Iranian government that its actions have consequences. And if it persists, the pressure will continue to mount, and its isolation will continue to deepen. There should be no doubt —- the United States and the international community are determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons,” Obama said.

Still, Iran has managed to continue its programs, according to officials around the world. Nor have sanctions and ostracisms pushed North Korea into ending its nuclear program.

THE ECONOMY

It may not seem like a foreign policy issue, but the economic recovery is a key element of the Obama administration policy. In foreign affairs, like in business, the bottom line is the bottom line.

The United States is hoping to foster the beginnings of economic growth at the end of this recession. The first priority, President Obama told the G-20 economic summit, was job creation through the use of government stimulation of the economy.

The U.S. is pledged to double its exports in the next five years, an increase that could create millions of jobs in the United States. It wants the World Trade organization to admit Russia and wants China to continue allowing its currency to appreciate when compared to the dollar.
Coupled with more government spending on job creation is a promise to cut government budget deficits in half by 2013, a hard goal for many countries even in Europe. Politically, it will be hard for many countries, including the United States to both cut deficits and to use government funds to stimulate the economy.

The second economic area is a renewed push on global financial reform to increase transparency so that the financial system cannot go through the same turmoil it has in recent years through overweaning greed.

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