Global wheat crisis recalls Moscow's 'great grain robbery'

British supermarket shoppers and the governments of poor countries are set to feel the impact of a commodities panic that in the past week has seen wheat record its highest monthly increase for 37 years.

Global prices for the world's most-consumed cereal have risen nearly 50 per cent since June as a result of Russia experiencing its worst drought for generations.

On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin (pictured) announced a Russian export freeze on grain, prompting economists to predict that panic buying by some governments could cause a further spike.

Neil Saunders of London-based retail analysts Verdict said the last wheat crisis, in 1973, contributed to an 87 per cent increase in the price of an 800 gramme loaf of bread in British supermarkets, from 10.1 pence to 18.9p the following year. "There is not nearly as much inflation in the system now as there was in the 1970s,'' he said, "but it is realistic to expect the average price of a value loaf to rise from 74p to 77p by the end of the year, and possibly to 83p by the end of 2011. Other items, such as pasta, animal feed – and therefore chicken and meat – are likely to be affected to a lesser extent.''

At the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation in Rome, economist Abdolreza Abbassian said governments will be to blame if consumers feel the pain of the wheat crisis. "With increased production, the world has become hooked on Black Sea origin wheat which is less dependable than that grown in more stable climates such as Canada or the United States. We have been telling governments to put in place measures to mitigate the impact of events like droughts or heavy rains.''

The 1973 wheat crisis followed a 1972 drought that destroyed 20% of the Soviet Union's food crops.

It prompted Moscow to buy up all US wheat reserves. The move became known in the City as "the great grain robbery''.