Pakistan’s Flood Crisis Could Become a Food Crisis

By Michael Kugelman

International aid is pouring in, but the local food insecurity would have global consequences.

Food Crisis Looms in Pakistan

Pakistan continues to suffer from catastrophic flooding. Around one-third of the country remains underwater, and most of the 33 million people affected by the disaster have yet to receive assistance. But the crisis could still get worse: On Tuesday, the retaining wall of Pakistan’s largest lake gave way under rising water levels, imperiling communities downstream. More monsoon rains are expected in the coming weeks.

International aid is pouring into Pakistan, and a newly established humanitarian air corridor has facilitated the arrival of emergency relief. More than a dozen countries have pledged assistance. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres—who has described the floods as a “monsoon on steroids”—will visit Pakistan on Friday to survey the damage. The immediate focus is on providing food, clean water, and shelter. Pakistani officials and international donors are also working to address public health challenges.

However, another disaster with direct global implications looms: a major food crisis. With crops, livestock, and agricultural land damaged or destroyed, Pakistan will struggle to feed itself and the countries that depend on its food exports. This risks exacerbating the global food market crunch triggered by coronavirus pandemic supply chain shocks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

According to preliminary estimates, 65 percent of Pakistan’s main food crops—including 70 percent of its rice—have been swept away during the floods, and 3 million livestock have died. Pakistan’s planning minister says 45 percent of agricultural land is now destroyed. Such territory is precious in the best of times: Of Pakistan’s total land area, less than 40 percent is arable, and land erosion inflicts heavy damage on agricultural land.

Wheat is Pakistan’s top food crop, and the annual planting season begins soon. More than 90 percent of Pakistani households are wheat consumers. But with so much land destroyed or damaged, the wheat harvest could be jeopardized; some farmers fear their land won’t be usable within the next three months. Pakistan will likely have to import more food, which could raise costs and worsen the country’s balance of payments crisis. Before the floods, food inflation was at 26 percent, and in recent days some costs have surged by as much as 500 percent.

These high costs will be felt heavily in cities, which are home to large poor and working-class populations. If history is any guide, it could lead to urban unrest. It will manifest differently in rural areas, which are home to around two-thirds of Pakistan’s population. Rural land ownership is wildly unequal, and most residents own little or no land, which compounds food insecurity. In the longer term, this could exacerbate a public health challenge: stunting in children attributed to poor nutrition.

A food crisis in Pakistan would have international implications. The country is the fourth-largest global rice exporter, with buyers from China to sub-Saharan Africa. Any dramatic drop in exports will only add to global food insecurity fueled by reduced wheat exports from Ukraine, although high global rice stocks could soften the blow. Pakistan also exports many non-food crops, especially cotton.

If the flood waters recede soon enough, Pakistan can still avoid a worst-case scenario, salvaging some agricultural land. Most of Pakistan’s wheat and rice crops grow in Punjab province, which wasn’t hit as hard by the floods. But given the sheer scale of the flooding, the most significant damage is already done. The international donor community is already grappling with acute crises in Afghanistan and Ukraine, and donor fatigue remains a concern for Pakistan. The global implications of the flood crisis underscore the importance of global support to preempt another disaster.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/08/pakistan-floods-food-security-crisis/