Pakistan should worry about consequences of Taliban’s success in Afghanistan, former ambassador says

Saheli Roy Choudhury

Pakistan was one of the first countries to welcome the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan last month, following the collapse of the U.S.-backed civilian government.Now, Islamabad has to worry about some of the consequences of the Taliban’s success next door, former diplomats and political analysts said.

The main issue that experts point to is the security risk posed by the domestic terror group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban.“The Pakistani Taliban would like to replicate what happened in Afghanistan in at least the Pashtun areas of Pakistan — so, that’s one problem,” said Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistan ambassador to the U.S.

Pakistan was one of the first countries to welcome the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan last month, following the collapse of the U.S.-backed civilian government. Now, Islamabad has to worry about some of the consequences of the Taliban’s success next door, former diplomats and political analysts said.

“It may not be as easy for Pakistan as its leaders may have thought,” Husain Haqqani, who was Pakistan’s ambassador to the U.S. between 2008 and 2011, told CNBC in a recent interview.

Prime Minister Imran Khan reportedly said that Afghans had “broken the shackles of slavery.” Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Pakistan’s national security advisor Moeed Yusuf publicly urged the international community to engage with Afghanistan — which, in essence, now means the Taliban.

Pakistan, despite being an U.S. ally, had long been accused of covertly aiding the Taliban during their 20-year insurgency in Afghanistan — a charge that Islamabad denies.

What are the issues?

The main issue that Haqqani and others point to is the security risk posed by the domestic terror group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban — the group is separate from the Afghan Taliban. Last week, the TTP reportedly claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in Pakistan that killed at least three people and left 20 wounded.

The group will “definitely be encouraged by the success of their brethren in Afghanistan,” Haqqani said. “The Pakistani Taliban would like to replicate what happened in Afghanistan in at least the Pashtun areas of Pakistan — so, that’s one problem.”

It would be very difficult for Pakistan not to recognize the Taliban. Husain Haqqani FORMER PAKISTAN AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S.

Pashtuns are an ethnic group native to Afghanistan and northwest Pakistan. The contested colonial-era Durand Line, which forms the international land border between the countries, separates Pakistani Pashtun-dominated territories from Afghanistan. The latter claims those territories as part of a traditional Pashtun homeland.According to the Council on Foreign Relations, Islamabad believes that the Afghan Taliban’s ideology emphasizes Islam over Pashtun identity. Both the Afghan Taliban and the TTP are predominantly Pashtun.“Given the Afghan Taliban’s links with the Pakistani Taliban — both operational and ideological — Pakistan really has to worry about the risks a resurgent TTP poses to Pakistan,” Madiha Afzal, a David M. Rubenstein fellow in the foreign policy program at Brookings Institution, told CNBC.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/afghanistan-pakistans-strategy-in-kabul-and-what-happens-next.html