After US Afghanistan withdrawal, will Pakistan, Iran and Turkey take over?

 By SETH J. FRANTZMAN

Each of the three are preparing for the day after the US leaves. 

Moves by Turkey, Pakistan and Iran are afoot to fill the void left by the US as Washington draws down its last troops from Afghanistan after two decades of war there. The Taliban is advancing on various fronts and there are concerns that when America and its partner forces from other countries in NATO leave, instability and terror could spread.Turkish media is boasting that Ankara may rush in to backfill the US withdrawal by taking over Kabul International Airport. But Turkey won’t be sending more troops to secure the airport, Ankara’s media reports. It likely understands the crucial importance of controlling airports.For instance, Ankara has recent experience sending mercenaries to Libya and Syria, and also involving itself in Azerbaijan and northern Iraq. Turkey also has experience with airports. In the 2000s a Turkish construction group helped modernize Erbil International Airport.

Turkey’s model for airport control and influence may be by watching how Iran used its role in the Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut airports to build up control for weapons trafficking and other activities. Iran and its network of militias and proxies play a key role at these airports in the region.

Turkey may want a hand in Kabul for reasons of its own desire. It has a close relationship with Pakistan and both countries have religious far-right leaders who are seeking to assert their power. Pakistan has long been accused of supporting the Taliban through its intelligence services and the Turkey-Pakistan relationship could lead to them partitioning Afghanistan or facilitating the Taliban taking over part of the country. Meanwhile, Iran has its own interests in Afghanistan. It has long sought to target US forces there and eject the United States. It also has designs on a larger presence in Central Asia. This could dovetail with the Pakistan-Turkey plans, but it could also lead to some competition or flashpoints.

Iran ostensibly would like to protect the Shi’ite Hazzara minority in Afghanistan. Islamist extremists linked to Pakistan and ISIS, as well as the Taliban, have targeted Shi’ites in genocidal bombing attacks. These attacks spare no one, including attacks on girl’s schools and children. Iran would not welcome more such attacks. But Tehran has flirted with Al Qaeda, hosting its members, and other extremist groups in the past. How this fits in with Turkey’s goals and Pakistan’s goals is as yet not entirely clear. What is clear by reading the press accounts is that each country has its own policy and is preparing for the day after the US leaves. Even when it does leave, there will still be hundreds of American personnel in Afghanistan. Around 650 troops will stay, according to reports. The Taliban says it has a “right” to react if the troops remain. Basically, the Taliban appears to be dictating terms to the US now, a major reversal from 2002 when the US helped crush the Islamist movement.

Evidence that Iran and Pakistan may work together can be found at a Press TV article highlighting how Islamabad will no longer permit US bases in the country. In recent interviews, key Pakistani officials have indicated how they are growing closer to China and have voiced antisemitic claims. Iran also has a new 25-year deal with China. Iran’s goal though will be to increase trade with Pakistan and China, and instability in Afghanistan would not help achieve that. This means that insofar as Pakistan supports the Taliban, the goal will be to ease their conquest of the country. Turkey moving into the airport could fit into that design as well.

Afghan leader Ashraf Ghani was in Washington to meet with US President Joe Biden late last week. He compared Afghanistan’s current predicament to an 1861 moment of the US Civil War. “The senseless violence has to stop, but it’s going to be very difficult,” the president said. “But we’re going to stick with you and we’re going to do our best to see to it you have the tools you need.” The comparison to 1861 is an indication that the Afghan leadership wants to mobilize the country to stop the Taliban offensive. However they may find that Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and other countries have other plans.It remains to be seen where those countries will position themselves and whether Afghanistan falls to extremists and becomes a base of terror or whether stability can be maintained and the Taliban offensive checked. Considering the religious extremist nature of the governments in Ankara, Tehran and Islamabad, things do not bode well.