Army Backing Vital for Khan to Survive Pakistan Confidence Vote

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan spent much of his election campaign in 2018 denying he was a military stooge. Yet after suffering a shocking loss in parliament this week, he turned to the nation’s powerful army chief.

Khan met army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa along with the head of the military’s spy agency on Thursday after his finance minister lost a tightly fought battle for a seat in the Senate, or the upper house. The conversation with the head of the institution that has conducted numerous coups, and retains tremendous sway over policy, is likely to send a strong message to lawmakers as Khan seeks a confidence vote in parliament Saturday.

For the army, which has ruled the nation for about half of its existence since independence in 1947, Khan represents stability as the economy recovers from the pandemic-induced contraction. With U.S. President Joe Biden urging allies to uphold democracy, Pakistan will be keen to avoid turmoil in the region, which is already reeling from a coup in Myanmar.

Imran Khan to Seek Pakistan Parliament Vote After Shock Loss

“Bajwa is keen to maintain continuity and show that all is well,” said Burzine Waghmar, a member of the Centre for the Study of Pakistan at SOAS University of London. The army is also “keen to start on a good footing with the Biden administration as well.”

Khan’s meeting with Bajwa rankled the opposition. “It gives a wrong message,” opposition leader Maryam Nawaz said at a briefing on Thursday.

There was no immediate comment from the federal government’s spokesman or the army.

Shifting Numbers

Khan needs the support of 172 of the lawmakers to win the confidence vote. Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf party and allies have 178 seats in the 342-member National Assembly or lower house of parliament. However, the party-backed Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh got 164 votes in the election on Wednesday. The members of the National Assembly vote in the Senate and the defeat prompted Khan to seek a vote of confidence and prove he still commands a majority.

To ensure Khan has support of at least his lawmakers, Pakistan’s spy agency has been asked to monitor their movement and secure their presence in parliament on Saturday, according to officials with knowledge of the information. They asked not to be identified speaking to the media. “No party can remain in power without institutional support from the army,” said Amit Ranjan, research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore. “Whoever comes next, if Khan loses, also needs support from the army.” The army already has an outsized role in Khan’s administration -- with a say in foreign policy and security matters to economic decisions. Generals have been known to hold private meetings with businessman and policymakers.

Pakistan’s Army Chief Holds Private Meetings to Shore Up Economy

Meanwhile, former and current military officials are in prominent government-backed roles, such as running the state-owned airline and Khan’s low-cost housing plan.

Military Support

“The idea that the establishment is completely neutral seems a bit far-fetched,” said Niaz Murtaza, executive director at Islamabad-based think tank Inspiring Pakistan said by phone, referring to the military. The army is “still backing the government and they’ll continue to do so at the moment.”

Army Tightens Grip on Pakistan as Imran Khan’s Popularity Wanes

Still, the army’s backing couldn’t stop Khan’s party, which became the largest in the Senate, from losing the vital seat. The unexpected win for the opposition-backed former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, meant that some of Khan’s lawmakers switched sides.

Khan in an address to the nation alleged 15 or 16 of his lawmakers were bribed to vote against the party-backed candidate. Unlike the secret ballot in the Senate, the confidence vote is a public show of strength. With Pakistan looking to resume funding from the International Monetary Fund’s $6 billion bailout program last month, the army will be keen to prop up Khan.

The Pakistan premier has also been exerting influence in the peace talks in Afghanistan with U.S. troops poised to depart. He has met multiple delegations from the neighboring nation including the Taliban militants.

That is something the army will likely want to see continuing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-05/army-backing-vital-for-khan-to-survive-pakistan-confidence-vote