“New Era” in Saudi-Pak relations

Pakistan is the first stop on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s journey to Malaysia, Indonesia and India. A handout by the PTI government claims that, in addition to the US$6 B deposit and deferred oil facility earlier granted to Islamabad, MBS will now commit tens of billions of Saudi dollars to investments in “finance, power, petro-chemicals, renewable energy, internal security, media, culture and sports”. The government is suggesting that this Saudi largesse is a reward for PM Imran Khan’s attendance of the Global Future Investment Conference in Riyadh – “Davos in the Desert” – hosted by MBS last October that was boycotted by leading Western countries critical of the “Khashoggi affair”. While local media glare is focused on the planeloads of security personnel and equipment accompanying MBS, the grand purpose of his strategic mission is largely absent from discussions of his whirlwind tour.

FM Shah Mahmud Qureshi is crowing about a “new era” in Saudi-Pak relations. This is precious coming from him. It may be recalled that Saudi-Pak relations – which have historically always been good – plunged following a refusal by Pakistan’s parliament to commit warships, aircraft and troops in April 2015 to the Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen. The shrill opposition was led by Imran Khan’s PTI. It was averse to any Saudi attempt to prop up Nawaz Sharif as a quid pro quo for helping it at a time when the PTI was trying to topple him. We may also recall the bitterly angry response from a senior UAE minister acting as a proxy for Riyadh, the same UAE that has now coughed up a hefty deposit and oil facility for Pakistan. No wonder Mr Qureshi has been equally quick to stress that the PTI government is not committing any military assistance to the Saudis in Yemen. So what’s the new glue that is going to bind Riyadh and Islamabad together?

MBS’s political and economic reform agenda for Saudi Arabia was on track until it was buffeted by an attempted assassination scare at home, followed by the Khashoggi affair that left him bruised and isolated in much of the Western world. Talk of Western sanctions and US Congressional hostility prompted him to hit back with “a laundry list of potential Saudi responses” via media proxies. President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the conflict in Syria, in which Riyadh is heavily invested, reinforced the realization that security dependency on the West and further investment in its economies, should end. The “shift” has manifested itself with several trips to Moscow, including negotiations to buy Russia’s advanced S-400 anti-aircraft missile defense system and acquisition of 16 Russian nuclear reactors worth $80B with minimal safeguards for Uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent fuel. Russia’s Direct Investment Fund is also negotiating deals in oil refining, petrochemicals, gas chemicals and oilfield services with Riyadh. In turn Saudi companies are signing up to invest up to $15b in Russian infrastructure, agriculture, high-tech, energy, mining and LNG. At the end of the “Davos in the Desert” conference attended by a 40-strong Russian delegation and boycotted by leading CEOs of Western companies, a bitter MBS is said to have remarked: “Now we know who our best friends are and who are best enemies are!”

The ball is now in the court of political parties, the parliament, media organisations and civil society organisations. For far too long, political governments have bent over backwards to woo anti-democratic forces for elusive political stability

Prince Mohammad is now seeking to spread Saudi economic and military interests in diverse non-Western sources where prospects are good – hence this “valedictory” trip to Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia and India. Interestingly, the Saudi list of investment projects in Russia reads much like the proposed list for Pakistan. The Saudis and Pakistanis are both keen to scuttle the Chahbahar Port project in Iran, the former to undermine Iran’s oil exporting capacity and the latter to deny India any direct access to Afghanistan. The proposed Saudi Oil refinery in Gwadar along with investments in supply pipelines are aimed at locking Pakistan into Saudi oil supplies and weaning it away from Iranian oil and Qatar gas. Pakistan’s military is also likely to get more deeply involved in Riyadh’s internal security in general and MBS’s personal protection in particular. It is lining up to export missiles and aircraft, enhancing technology transfers and training Saudis in state-of-the-art weapons usage. MBS’s presence in Islamabad could also iron out snags in a proposed political deal between the Miltablishment and Nawaz Sharif aimed at securing the PTI government’s stability.

The list of proposed Saudi Investment projects in Pakistan include the subjects of “media and culture”. We note that present and past Saudi Ambassadors to Islamabad have started to articulate their opinion in the local press. Western media reports that MBS’s media ambitions are assuming global proportions in line with his drive for new sources of security and legitimacy. Is it any wonder then that Information Minister Chaudhry Fawad is threatening new laws to curb social media as if regular “disappearances”, police cases against critics, constant press “advice” on dos and don’ts for TV Channels, discriminatory advertisement policies and continuous pressure on cable distributors to block offenders, are not enough restrictions on free speech already?

By Najam Sethi

https://www.thefridaytimes.com/new-era/