Monday, September 10, 2018

Will #China bail out a broke #Pakistan or is #IMF the last resort?




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The presence of just low-level Pakistani officials to welcome the powerful Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, who is on a three-day visit to the country, has set off speculation on if this was a “deliberate downgrade”.
Yi is the first senior Chinese leader to visit the country since Imran Khan became Prime Minister. The symbolism was noted by none other than the perceptive Mushahid Hussian, journalist, thinker and politician:
This comes on the back of the Imran Khan government recently forming a nine-member committee to review the flagship China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. The committee is slated to meet for the first time this week. Commerce, textiles, industry and investment minister Abdul Razak Dawood, a member of this committee, said it would “think through the CPEC — all of the benefits and the liabilities”.

 The Imran Khan government, it seems, is trying to find fault with the previous Nawaz Sharif regime, and CPEC seems to be a perfect instrument to beat it with. Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the Pakistan foreign minister, however, tried to make up lost ground. Speaking to reporters, he said Beijing may be willing to renegotiate the 2006 trade deal with Pakistan, and clarified that the CPEC project has not inflicted a debt burden on Pakistan. “When these projects get completed and enter into operation, they will unleash huge economic benefits,” Financial Times quoted Qureshi as saying. Some analysts are now wondering if Pakistan would ask China to revisit the terms of the agreement of this mega infrastructure plan. Pakistan’s new Finance Minister Asad Umar and Dawood, however, said that they wouldn’t want to offend Beijing even as they were in the midst of reviewing CPEC agreements signed in the past five years Fact is, as Pakistan’s foreign reserves continue to fall — right now, it is just over $10 billion — it is right now in the middle of deciding upon another IMF bailout in the coming few weeks.

 If it does, it will be its 13th in a span of three decades. Speculation is rife that Pakistan is looking for $9 billion from the IMF. Other analysts wonder if the extent of a possible IMF payout is linked to a bailout by the Chinese. Perhaps that was another reason for the Wang Yi visit. After all, Pakistan and China describe their relationship as an “all-weather friendship.” With CPEC tying Pakistan further into Beijing’s sphere of influence, the question is how far Beijing is likely to go to defray some of Pakistan’s loans. Some reports do quote some Pakistani government officials citing Beijing’s intent to indeed help Pakistan deal with its foreign exchange crisis, but there’s the news that China is asking Pakistan to reduce its large deficit. Pakistan certainly has a tough choice ahead.
https://theprint.in/go-to-pakistan/will-china-bail-out-a-broke-pak-or-is-imf-the-last-resort/115222/

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