The air chief waxes eloquent about taking out Pakistan’s nukes. Even the tactical ones–the Nasrs–spread across hundreds of field commanders. How are his planes going to do that?
Pakistan’s nukes are its crown jewels. Until 1971, the country was full of braggadocio and machismo, in equal measure, and launched 1948 and 1965, with arguable success. 1971 knocked off its nose. And made it paranoid about India.
PMs since 1971, except Morarji, but Indira and Rajiv certainly, contemplated, seriously, knocking out Pakistan’s nuke program. But both realized that they wouldn’t succeed. Vajpayee did 1998, in part, to ferret out if indeed Pakistan had nukes. To his utter disappointment, and shock, it did, and as efficient or inefficient as India’s.
By then Pakistan had had a successful nose transplant. India could never pull a 1971 on it again.
Donald Trump ranted and railed against Pakistan in August and commanded and commandeered India to do its fair share in Afghanistan. But any man who throws a roll of paper towel at his hurricane-ravaged subjects as if he was throwing a basketball and then eyes it as keenly as if he were in the process of making a three-pointer, is such a man fit enough to be king?
His administration is collapsing. As we speak, one of the mature adults in his cabinet, Rex Tillerson, the foreign minister, is about to quit or be fired. Take your pick. Trump surrounds himself by “winning” generals. Really? All the three generals that he has close to him–McMaster, the national security advisor; Mattis, the defence minister; Kelley, his chief of staff–have fought and failed in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Oh, but who cares about the war; each of us won our individual battles. In Anbar in Iraq and Helmand in Afghanistan and the lord knows where else. So we can all claim to be modern-day Douglas MacArthurs. And now that we are finally in charge, we will surely turn the tide and win the war.
Pakistan is not impressed. Especially with its nukes and missiles. It has been hearing warlike rhetoric from American presidents and foreign ministers and defence ministers and ambassadors since 9/11. The fusillade from Trump is one in a series of many emanating from Washington. Empty of course.
Pakistan is as close to military rule without technically being under military rule. The current prime minister is a non-entity. The ousted prime minister is trying to stay alive politically, but he will not be able to do so. The military hates him. In part because the military hates India and Nawaz likes India.
The military is convinced that India is up to no good in Balochistan. To what extent and of what kind, no one really knows. One Jadhav doesn’t a summer make. Or make India the mother of South Asian terror.
I mean, if India is the mother of South Asian terror, and Pakistan the father of South Asian terror, imagine how pugnacious the baby will be. But let’s not bring love-jihad in between jihad-jihad.
Pakistan sees red whenever India and Afghanistan are mentioned together. All this air talk from India makes it seethe further and gives it a potent handle to show the world that India is eternally hostile to it.
The air chief claimed that India can win a two-front war. That is entirely debatable. He said that he has a Plan B. Well, his Plan B, obvious as it is, is Pakistan’s Plan A.
The Soviets fled Afghanistan in 1989 in part because half their army was opiated by Afghan poppies. They also faced a decade-long war by proxy by the then-other superpower, the US. The Soviets had lost all appetite for war. Yet the puppet Afghan regime left behind by them lasted three years.
The Americans have been beaten and bruised but haven’t fallen as yet. They are not going to just up and leave. The trick for them, and for India, is to fatigue out the Taliban as much as they can. Who knows in three to four years the balance will tilt somewhat towards the Yanks and the Taliban will be ready to negotiate?
But this Pakistan doesn’t want. It wants the Taliban to grab Kabul now. That would be disastrous for America. And India. So what should India do? Instead of boots on ground in Afghanistan, send military “advisors” and trainers to support the Americans and keep propping up the puppet regime in Kabul until the Taliban sees sense.
And keep all the airy-fairy talk to itself.
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