Turkey has no chance when it comes to ISIL

The tension between Turkey and Russia continues to escalate after Turkey downed a Russian fighter plane citing airspace violation.

This tension was actually foreshadowed during the G-20 summit meeting in Antalya when Russian President Vladimir Putin said: "[The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant] ISIL is receiving financial support from 40 countries, including some G-20 countries."

Indeed, many commentators in Europe suggested that Putin's remarks were targeted at Turkey. After the ISIL attack in Paris, articles claiming that Turkey was backing ISIL started to appear in the Western press.

I must also note the downing of the Russian aircraft came in the wake of Putin's G-20 revelations.

Putin targets Erdoğan

Following the downing of its aircraft, Russia made harsh remarks targeting Turkey and announced it would implement retaliatory economic and political measures against Turkey.

Some of these economic measures were made public: reintroducing visa requirements for Turkish citizens starting from Jan. 1, urging its citizens to avoid Turkey trips and deporting Turkish investors and workers in Russia, etc. Russia has not yet taken any step regarding its natural gas sale to Turkey, but anything can happen at any moment.

It is clear Russia's main move will be of a political, rather than economic, nature. Indeed, it has recently made several moves to this end.

Moscow announced that during the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Paris this week, Putin had submitted to world leaders a report on the allegations that Turkey supports ISIL.

The previous day, Putin made allegations implying that one of his targets was Turkey when he had hinted at the involvement of some G-20 countries in supporting ISIL.

The documents Russia disclosed contain the alleged route of the oil trade between Turkey and ISIL. It was further maintained that Turkish officials played a part in this trade and evidence would be disclosed in the coming days.

In terms of the Turkish officials supporting ISIL, it is alleged that the Russian authorities are referring to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his family. We will wait and see if these allegations are true.

Putin draws power from West

In any case, it is clear Russia will continue to escalate this tension, trying to corner Turkey.

It appears Russia will consolidate its presence in Syria and settle in the country despite the objections of the West by playing on the ideological ties between Turkey and ISIL. Russian leaders see this crisis with Turkey as a good opportunity to do so.

Here the important point is: Russia is consolidating its power in Syria via Turkey despite the objections of the West. This is because Russia rightly placed the emphasis on the political and crucial aspect of the crisis with Turkey, i.e., ISIL, rather than on the legal aspect, i.e., airspace violation. It did so by disclosing certain documents about the alleged ties between Turkey and ISIL.

In this setting, Turkey will not be able to secure the West's support for an extended period.

Indeed, as soon as it downed the aircraft, Turkey called NATO for an emergency meeting. NATO expressed its support for Turkey. But we must acknowledge that this support was given "reluctantly," given the case of Ukraine.

Indeed, the primary threat for Western leaders and the public is ISIL and governments know this. To the West, Turkey is the "usual suspect" with regards to the ISIL crisis and Turkey has done virtually nothing to ease this suspicion.

When it comes to ISIL issue, Russia is closer to West

In this context, the West is closer to Russia rather than its ally, Turkey. Unlike Turkey, both the West and Russia -- and also Iran -- prioritize the ISIL threat, not Bashar al-Assad.

Given the fact that the US recently started to launch airstrikes against ISIL, Turkey is very well cornered.

This is why Turkey and Erdoğan can elicit political support against Russia only by giving more concessions to the West, i.e., through Erdoğan dispensing with his dream of leading the Muslim world and coming down to Earth. But even that political support will be insufficient against Russia when it comes to the ISIL threat.

The following Russian proverb, currently trending on Twitter, is quite ironic: "When you ask a bear to dance, you can only sit down not when you are tired but when the bear is."

The Turkish-Russian tension is a little like this proverb. Obviously, this tension has a high cost for Turkey and Erdoğan.