By Marwa Yahya
While airstrikes intensified in Yemen, the possibility of a ground offensive in Yemen has grown significantly as Egypt and Saudi Arabia are considering the move.
Egypt declares its readiness to send troops into the embattled country "if necessary," while Saudi has positioned its tanks on its joint border with Yemen.
According to observers, any ground incursion will be difficult and could pose major challenges for the coalition which was formed against Iranian-backed Houthis militants and forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Saudi Arabia, supported by regional nine Sunni Muslim allies, launched an air campaign on last Thursday to support Abdel Rabbu Mansour Hadi's legitimacy after the Houthis forced his withdrawal in a coup last month from the capital to Aden.
"If the coalition takes the fight to the ground in Yemen, the consequences could be severe," said military expert Zakeria Hussein.
Houthis are battle-hardened guerrilla fighters and could cross into Saudi Arabia, Hussein told Xinhua.
He ruled out the possibility that the Arab officials will take serious move for ground incursion in Yemen.
Geographically, Yemen is rough terrain, with high mountains, caves and traps, which is ultimately difficult for any troops to penetrate.
Hussein, also former chairman of Military Naser Academy, added that "ground operation in Yemen is extremely difficult given the bitter experience of the Egyptian army in 1960s in Yemen."
Egypt's military intervention in Yemen in the 1960s was disastrous, contributing to Egypt's defeat in the 1967 Six Day War against Israel, and ending with the partition of the country after the Egyptian military failed to defeat the Zaidi imamate of which the Houthis are the successors.
The expert, who was among the Egyptian military line in Yemen in the 1960s, reiterated that the navy and air strikes so far made prospected results, and will continue to achieve its goals.
He expected the Saudi-led military operation "won't take long time," noting that former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh thought to halt war with the Sunnis allies by announcing some concessions.
He added that Abdullah's remarks mean "the airstrikes brought its fruits," especially that the Arab alliance forces announced controlling the Yemeni airspace and eventually blocking any access of support from Iran, leaving sea supply of the Houthis as the only option for Shiite affiliated forces.
"Egypt has declared its political and military support, as well as its participation with the coalition with aerial and naval Egyptian forces, as well as ground forces if necessary, in light of Egypt's historic and unshakeable responsibility towards Arab and Gulf national security," Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri told a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Sharm El-Sheikh on Thursday.
But the Houthis' leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi declared that Yemen would be the "graveyard of invader" if the coalition launched a ground invasion and called for an end to what he declared as "illegal, unprovoked aggression."
The Gulf states have intervened on the ground in recent years, with Saudi troops moving in to quell the uprising in Bahrain in 2011 in support of the Sunnis khlifa monarchy, which rules over a Shiite majority.
But a ground intervention in Yemen "would pose major challenges, pitting the coalition against an insurgent movement baked by Iran with important redoubts in the country's north," the military expert said.
He added the Arab coalition made preparation for more than six months with Gulf military maneuvers for that purpose, stressing the coalition forces have accurate information of Yemen which made its intensive airstrikes effective. "The airstrikes are enough for the current time."
Ahmad Ban, researcher with Cairo-based Nile Center for Strategic Studies, agreed with the military expert as saying that "the military intervention in Yemen is hard to be developed into ground incursion, for the latter's very expensive costs."
"Yemen is swamp of hazards and traps, and Arab coalition wouldn't accept entering long war in its unfriendly geography," Ban said.
Saudi, the biggest influential Sunnis country, wanted to "deliver a deterrence message for Iran to stop its expanding ambitions and minimize its influence in Yemen," Ban said, adding that "the kingdom won't allow Iranian influence in the region."
The alliance forces war is only sought pressure on Houthis to push them for political settlement.
However, Ban added that if Houthis insisted on fighting, Saudi might support a Yemeni group, like the Yemeni Congregation for Reform, with arms without involving in direct war.
Meanwhile, professor Ahmad Mahran, chief of Cairo Center for Political Studies, said the Decisive Storm operation is a temporarily exceptional reaction and will continue for only few days.
He explained that some western courtiers have concerns over an Arab joint forces or coalition, and they will press hard for ending the joint military operation in Yemen very soon.
There are international interests that oppose ongoing war in Yemen, Mahran said, adding that "Houthis fighters are small group with no identity and will seek dialogue and withdrawal."
No comments:
Post a Comment