Saturday, February 7, 2015

Western Nations Split on Arming Kiev


Differences within the Western alliance over whether to send defensive arms to Ukraine were thrust into the open on Saturday whenAngela Merkel, the German chancellor, bluntly opposed providing lethal military support to Kiev and called instead for continued efforts to persuade Russia and separatist forces to cease fire.

“The progress that Ukraine needs cannot be achieved by more weapons,” she told a security conference here. Instead, she spoke of how Western values and persistence won the Cold War.
Ms. Merkel’s position was challenged by Senator Bob Corker, a Republican of Tennessee who is chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, and by Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who noted that there was growing support in the American Congress for arming Ukraine.
Malcolm Rifkind, the former British foreign secretary and Conservative politician, said it was unlikely a peace agreement could be reached unless there was a combination of military assistance and diplomacy, so that the Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine faced tougher Ukrainian resistance.
The pointed exchanges laid bare the divisions within the West’s ranks and did not provide a sense of how the United States and its European allies hoped to fashion a common strategy that might persuade PresidentVladimir V. Putin of Russia to honor an agreement negotiated in Minsk, Belarus, in September. The agreement called for a cease-fire and the removal of Russian weapons and forces from eastern Ukraine.
Ms. Merkel did not say if she had made any headway in her talks in Moscow on Friday with Mr. Putin and the French president, François Hollande, who has also opposed arming the Ukrainians but is eager to fulfill an existing contract to sell warships to Russia if the crisis eases.
Ms. Merkel drew parallels to the containment policy that brought an end to the Cold War and suggested that a prolonged period of economic sanctions was the best strategy, though one, she acknowledged, that might not work in the end.
“We have no guarantees that President Putin will do what we expect him to do,” she said, conceding that Russian violations of the Minsk agreement had been “very disillusioning, very disappointing.” But given the imbalance in forces between Russia and Ukraine, she said, “I do think that military means will lead to more victims” and not produce the West’s desired outcome.
Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican who has argued forcefully for weapons deliveries to Ukraine, summed up his reaction to Ms. Merkel’s speech with one word: “Foolishness.”
Mr. McCain said that unless the West beefed up its support to Ukraine, Mr. Putin could next seize the port of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine with a view to building a land bridge from Russia proper to Crimea, which the Kremlin annexed last March. “I can assure you that he will not stop until he has to pay a much higher price,” Mr. McCain said.
After her appearance, Ms. Merkel met with Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine. Mr. McCain, after meeting Mr. Poroshenko, said, “It’s safe to say that he’s not overly optimistic about this negotiation. 
Mr. Biden said in his speech that while he had appeared before the conference six years before to urge that American-Russian relations be “reset,” that period was over; the West was now being tested by Russia’s actions and needed to change its focus.
“The Ukrainian people have a right to defend themselves,” said Mr. Biden, who stopped short of saying that the United States would provide lethal weapons.
Mr. Poroshenko appealed in his speech for military assistance, arguing that it would encourage Russia to accept a political solution. “The stronger our defense, the more convincing is our diplomatic voice.” And he strongly rejected the idea that additional territory concessions should be made in return for a new agreement.
He said Ukraine wanted defensive weapons to counter Russian artillery and radar, not offensive weapons, including communications equipment, and counter-battery radars.
Economic sanctions have so far failed to dissuade the Russians from intervening in Ukraine. Since the Minsk agreement, the separatists have gained 500 square miles and taken the airport at Donetsk.
Germany, France and Britain believe that economic sanctions need more time.
The incoming defense secretary, Ashton B. Carter, has said he is inclined to provide arms to the Ukrainians. And Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, the NATO commander, told the conference on Friday that the delivery of defensive weapons to Ukraine should not be ruled out if economic sanctions and diplomatic efforts failed to persuade the Russians to honor the Minsk agreement.
The White House has been much more cautious, and President Obama is waiting until Ms. Merkel visits Washington on Monday before deciding.
So far, the Obama administration has committed itself to providing $118 million for training and nonlethal equipment for Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, State Border Guard Service and National Guard. The United States is also preparing plans for $120 million in additional nonlethal training and equipment.
But faced with continued gains by Russian-backed separatists, the Obama administration has begun to weigh whether to send antitank missiles, reconnaissance drones, counter-battery radar and other defensive arms and equipment to Ukraine.
The new German and French initiative emerged in response to reports that lethal assistance was now on the table in Washington. Ms. Merkel called Mr. Putin about the crisis, and the he sent a letter to the German and French leaders with his ideas.
Western officials said Mr. Putin’s plan was a nonstarter, because it reportedly set new, more expansionary boundary lines for separatist-held eastern Ukraine and proposed legal autonomy for those regions. One aspect of the current negotiations involves establishing a wide demilitarized zone, Mr. Hollande told French television on Saturday.
On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius of France called Secretary of State John Kerry to let him know that Germany and France were preparing a counterproposal. The Americans insisted that the Europeans discuss their ideas with Kiev, and on Friday, after meeting with Mr. Poroshenko, Ms. Merkel and Mr. Hollande flew to Moscow to see Mr. Putin.
The Germans and French have said little about their initiative and how it relates to the Minsk agreement.
One German official, who asked not to be identified, said the Minsk agreement would be an “anchor point” but also stressed the need to be realistic about the military situation, hinting that the separatists might need to be allotted more territory than was envisioned under the agreement.
Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said he expected the discussions Mr. Putin had with Ms. Merkel and Mr. Hollande to continue and that there were “good grounds for optimism.”
But he said little to suggest how common ground might be found. He accused the United States of turning a “blind eye to Ukrainian abuses” and complained that the West had supported an “anti-constitutional coup d’état.”

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