TIME TO CONFRONT PAKISTAN WITH DIRE CHOICES – ANALYSIS

By Maj Gen (Retd) Afsir Karim

Soon after US President Barack Obama left India after a very successful visit, Pakistan was back at its old game with a fierce encounter in Jammu and Kashmir.

Freezing of bank accounts of Jamaat-ud-Dawah (JUD) and banning Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), and Haqqani networks reported during Obama’s visit have yet to be confirmed. Hopes that terrorists nurtured, armed and trained to target India may be put on leash by Pakistan, the 26/11 mastermind, Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi may be handed over to India for trial and Hafiz Mohammad Saeed may be arrested under US pressure were soon belied.

Over time it has become absolutely clear that Pakistan will not dismantle its terror network or stop cross-border terror attacks on India unless unbearable pressure is brought on it by the international community – which is not likely to happen in the current global security environment.

The US policy makers who understand the complexities of the Pakistan situation believe that terrorist outfits in Pakistan cannot be eliminated through military action but their activities may be kept within manageable limits through financial aid to Islamabad, combined with political pressure. Despite hostile action by state-controlled Pakistani terrorist groups against American troops in Afghanistan, the US has continued providing generous financial aid to Pakistan and has never attempted a military crackdown on Pakistan. As of now Pakistan is under little international pressure to dismantle its terror groups, and presently there are no indications that the US and other aid givers will curtail financial aid to Pakistan that helps it to build and expand its lethal terror arsenal.

In the present circumstances India should not expect the US to pull out its chestnuts out of the fire and understand that no other outside power has the means or inclination to do so. The question is what India can do to eliminate terrorist organizations which are being used by Pakistan to attack India. Any kind of conventional military action against Pakistan whether limited or otherwise, is likely to prove counterproductive and may result in a major setback to India’s economic programmes.

Many defence analysts in India believe that India cannot remain a passive spectator any longer and tolerate Pakistan’s terrorist attacks without retaliating in a way that would compel Pakistan to relent. A statement emanating from sources close to the government last October hinted at strong measures to eliminate Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and inflicting unaffordable costs on Pakistan in response to cross-border violence. This message indicated intentions of retaliating in kind and launching of large scale covert operations to dismantle Pakistan’s terrorist networks poised against India.

However, demolition of terrorist camps or attacks on some terrorist organizations will not deter Pakistan and could even further escalate cross-border violence. To put an end to Pakistan based terrorism India will have to demolish the capability of the Pakistani regime to continue its proxy war and terror operations against India. This will involve a long term policy and not just retaliation. India will have to first acquire the capability to lay such unbearable economic and strategic burdens on Pakistan that it is obliged to dismantle its covert war machinery and accept India’s terms for peace. To begin with India would have to increase its military and economic capability to a degree which Pakistan can never match.

India’s aim should be to pose diverse threats till Pakistan’s infrastructure for carrying on covert operations against India collapses without fighting a war. Pakistan’s flourishing terrorist industry obviously has strong backing of the state; these organizations are considered as strategic assets by the Pakistan army and are an integral part of its operational plans against India. There is little doubt that India should out race Pakistan militarily and strategically quite visibly and confront Pakistan with dire choices. But, India should always keep the doors of meaningful negotiations open to give Pakistan a face saving escape route.