Post-US era: Afghanistan, a closer ally with China?

Zhang Dan

China and Afghanistan have recently engaged in a flurry of diplomatic exchanges, including Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s first state visit to China and an international meeting on Afghanistan held in Beijing on Oct. 31.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani paid a four-day state visit to China, starting Oct. 28. This was his first trip overseas since taking office in September of this year. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang extended him a warm welcome and pledged support for Afghanistan's reconstruction.

On Oct. 31, Beijing held its first international meeting on the subject of Afghanistan, the fourth ministerial conference of the Istanbul Process. During the meeting, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged to offer 1.5 billion yuan ($244 million) in assistance to Afghanistan over the upcoming three years. He also vowed to help the country train 3,000 people of all circles in the upcoming five years, and provide 500 scholarships.

Ghani’s Beijing tour came only two days after the last dispatches of troops from the United States and the United Kingdom ended their mission in Afghanistan.

Is this a signal of a closer relationship between China and Afghanistan? Moreover, will China play a greater role than the United States in Afghanistan in the future?

A Chinese blogger wrote an article entitled 'China: from bystander to important player in Afghan issue' to elaborate on the future roles of China and the United States in the Central Asia country.

On Oct. 26, 2014, NATO officially ended its combat missions in Afghanistan. Troops from the United States and the United Kingdom held a ceremony on that day to transfer two military bases to the Afghan military. NATO’s announcement indicates that its 13-year military occupation of Afghanistan has officially come to an end.

On Oct. 28, just two days after NATO’s announcement, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani started a four-day visit to China at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. This was Ghani’s first state visit since taking office. It aroused people’s attention when he chose to visit China over the United States for his first foreign trip as Afghan president.

The recent U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and Ghani’s visit to China together show that international power relations have shifted. Over the past 13 years, the United States prevailed over the Afghan situation. But now China is becoming a more important player.

The 13 years of war in Afghanistan cost the United States trillions of dollars, and provoked the rise of many terrorists cells in the Middle East. The U.S. won the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but gained little from their endeavors due to the large costs involved and new enemies created in the process of fighting these conflicts.

The recent diplomatic exchanges between China and Afghanistan have triggered jealousy from the West. The western media again labels China as ‘a free rider’. In fact, this is not free-riding. China simply rebuilds what the western powers have broken. China is a builder, first and foremost. That is why countries welcome China to participate in their reconstruction.

After the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the United States became the world’s only super power. By 2001, its global predominance was on the decline. The US planned to create a ‘global empire’ that could control the whole world for generations to come.

By occupying Afghanistan in the name of fighting terrorism after the Sept.11 attacks, the US attempted to achieve three purposes: the prevention of China’s influence over the Middle East, the interception of Russia’s influence in South Asia, and the eventual takedown of Iran.

The first two purposes were strategic, while the third one was the immediate intention. Its plan includes three steps: first, controlling Afghanistan, second, to encircle Iran by first controlling Iraq, and then, to take down Iran.

The U.S. was militarily unstoppable at that time. Therefore, under the pretext of ‘fighting terrorism’ and ‘upholding justice’, it waged the Afghan war after the Sept. 11 terror attacks. In 2003, it carried out the second step, invading Iraq. Even though the U.S. did not get UN authorization for the use of military force against Iraq, George W. Bush unilaterally launched the invasion of Iraq.

After the fall of Saddam's regime, the U.S. troops controlled Iraq. Its next target was Iran. Strategically speaking, if it could control Iran, then its status as a ‘global empire’ would be established. If that happened, the costs of these wars would be imposed on other countries.

Of course, Iran was prepared. On Feb. 9, 2003, more than one month before the Iraq war, then Iranian President Mohammad Khatami announced in a televised speech that Iran had discovered uranium ore and successfully extracted uranium. Iran began to use the prospect of having nuclear weapons technology to defend itself.

China, Russia, and the EU used the opportunity of solving Iran’s nuclear issue to delay the U.S. plan for war against Iran. Even at the end of George W. Bush’s term, the issue had not been solved. The U.S. was left in a very awkward situation. It could not go against so many countries and attack Iran, nor could it afford another war due to the country’s declining national power. Only until the 2008 international financial crisis broke out did the U.S. realize its decline and others’ rise, especially the rise of China.

At the end of 2008, the U.S. implemented quantitative easing (QE) to discharge its toxic assets. At the same time, it planned to adjust its national strategy. It intended to give China the No.2 position in the globe, helping itself manage the world affairs and shoulder more of its responsibilities. In that case, China would become the target of other countries, while the United States could still secure its crown. This was the motivation behind Barack Obama’s first visit to China in Nov., 2009. Obama put forward his proposal of the US and China jointly managing the world economy. Knowing it would make China a scapegoat, China rejected his proposal. Obama did not get what he wanted from this trip. His failure forced the U.S. to cope with the financial crisis with continued quantitative easing. In 2010, the U.S. established its strategy of rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific region, and prepared to pull out troops from Afghanistan and Iraq.

China-Afghanistan cooperation began when the US prepared for withdrawal. As early as 2007, China Metallurgical Group Corporation and China’s Jiangxi Copper won the bidding for a cooper mine project in Aynak, Afghanistan. In 2011, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and the Afghan company Watan Group opened a joint-venture to explore oil and gas resources in Amu Darya Basin.

In 2013, China proposed the strategy of establishing the Silk Road Economic Belt, which was well-received by countries in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. Shortly after being informed of this strategy, Afghan President Hamid Karzai visited China. This act alone indicates that Afghanistan attaches great importance to this strategy.

The U.S. has withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan, and China has successfully held the fourth ministerial conference of the Istanbul Process on Afghanistan. The U.S. withdrawal and China’s engagement show that America’s use of force has failed and China’s proposal for economic development is gaining approval. For this reason China will likely have a stronger influence in Afghanistan over the years to come.