Saturday, November 1, 2014

Pakistan - Jamaat and PTI

Through the course of his protest Imran Khan has managed to alienate friend and foe alike. The one remaining ally he had left was the Jamaat-e-Islami, which is now the PTI’s only coalition partner in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. But even that relationship has frayed in recent days. The impetus for the dispute between Sirajul Haq and Imran were remarks attributed to the JI chief claiming that Imran and Nawaz were different sides of the same coin. Although the JI has denied Siraj ever said this, Imran took great offence and launched a broadside accusing Siraj of playing on both sides of the wicket. The origins of this dispute can be traced back to Siraj’s negotiation efforts as part of the opposition jirga to end the protests in Islamabad. It was widely believed that Siraj represented a pro-PTI faction of the opposition but now the interests of the two parties may be aligned with difficulty. In recent days, Siraj has urged the government not to accept the PTI’s resignations from the National Assembly. The JI has decided that it wants to be part of the system rather than following the PTI’s lead in overthrowing it and that has caused a rift which may prove irreparable.
The silent factor in this tension is the future of the government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The PTI controls 46 seats in the provincial assembly which, should it lose the JI, would not be sufficient to continue ruling the province. Siraj must now be worried that the PTI will take its protest to the logical end and resign from the KP Assembly too. This would explain his pleading with the government not to accept the NA resignations. The JI has other options though. It has been trying to mend ties with the JUI-F and the two, along with the PML-N, hold enough seats to displace the PTI. And if Imran does end up ordering his MPAs to resign it would likely lead to defections from his own party. Ideologically, PTI members would fit in the JI. All of this should in theory be worrying for the PTI but Imran is playing a different game right now. His entire protest is based on the rejection of politics and he seems not to worry about any damage. The JI is more interested in self-preservation and may have decided Imran is too much of a loose cannon.

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