Pakistan: Ghani’s visit

Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani has arrived on a two-day visit on the invitation of the prime minister. The visit is aimed at improving relations between the two neighbouring countries, mired since long in continuing distrust and a confidence deficit. No one knows what will happen to Afghanistan after 2014. Commentaries on the future of Afghanistan are uncertain at best. The country is facing a myriad problems with solutions scarce insofar as Afghanistan’s indigenous capacity to deal with them is concerned. Looking beyond the immediate issue of the Taliban threat, the newly installed government headed by President Ashraf Ghani seems determined to steer the country to safer shores. Very few doubt his intention and ability to overcome this challenge. After coming to power through a controversial presidential election, President Ghani is striving to reorder Afghan’s foreign policy and in the process garner legitimacy for his rule, still in peril because of the difficulties in implementing the agreement between him and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah in the new unity government. The government in Afghanistan cannot afford the current power haggling between the erstwhile rivals, especially when the US is withdrawing from the region and with it the donors’ commitment to keep the Afghanistan economy stable seems fraught with uncertainty. Afghanistan is far from able to stand on its feet through its own economic and military strength. Even after 13 years of western occupation and with a total outlay of $ 100 billion on social services, the Afghan economy is incapable of providing jobs to the youth and revenue to the state. The US and NATO have promised to inject annually $ eight billion for the Afghan National Army and the economy. However, if the civil war already in the making flares up, there will be even less motivation for the donor countries to foot the bill. Ashraf Ghani has to bring Afghanistan’s warring factions, particularly the Taliban, to the negotiating table, stabilize relations with neighbouring countries and keep the channel for foreign aid open. All these challenges are dependent for their solution on a stable government in Afghanistan. President Ashraf Ghani has been unable to form his cabinet so far because of power sharing disagreements with the Abdullah camp. That may weaken his negotiation options in the upcoming donors conference in London next month.

Stability in Afghanistan is as much a challenge for its own people as for the region. Afghanistan’s conflict has been instrumental in galvanizing terrorism across the world over the last four decades by now. Unfortunately, the war on terror has provided no solution to this conundrum, sinking Afghanistan, the region and areas further abroad into more wars. In this context, Pakistan’s perceived role as a potential troublemaker meddling in the affairs of Afghanistan, informed amongst other reasons by our India-centric concerns, needs revisiting. Though Pakistan has by now also received its own share of suffering at the hands of home grown terrorists and is fighting a war against them in FATA, the success of this mission will only benefit Afghanistan if terrorism, as stated by Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif during his recent visit to Kabul, becomes a common cause between the two countries. The Pakistan government’s desire to see an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned political solution to its civil war would remain unachievable unless the Pakistani military too is on board. Ashraf Ghani would like to return with this assurance from the Pakistan military and the government. Pakistan has a lot to offer to Afghanistan in trade and economic corporation. The Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Economic Commission has agreed last January to take bilateral trade from $ 2.5 billion at present to $ five billion by 2015. The agreements made by the commission should be reviewed and implemented at the earliest. Two-way trade and Pakistani investment in Afghanistan would also provide an impetus to control cross-border smuggling, which hurts the revenues of both countries. The first visit of President Ashraf Ghani to Pakistan should be made historic by Pakistan living up to its words of letting Afghanistan settle its problems on its own without external interference and aiding the neighbouring country to emerge from the long tunnel of war and bloodshed of the last four decades.