Tahirul Qadri’s dharna (sit-in) has finally ended after 67 days of torture that proved in the end to be a waste of time. The Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) leader made the announcement at D-Chowk, Islamabad on Tuesday, saying he would continue his ‘revolution’ by holding rallies nationwide. He told his followers that they should not see the decision as a defeat, but as part of the process of revolution, a concept he has tried to sell without any clear definition of its meaning. One cannot say his sit-in was destined to fail or that its outcome was inevitable. There were moments where the actions of Qadri and his supporters seemed like they might succeed in forcing the government into a desperate corner or creating a situation where the military would take extraordinary action. However, after the cleric ran and hid in his car while sending women and children to be teargassed, and after the ransacking of the PTV office in Islamabad was found to be the work of PAT supporters, the dharna lost any moral sheen it may have had in the eyes of the wider television watching audience.
Effectively the dharna ended over a month ago. After August 30 it was unlikely the prime minister (PM) would resign with nearly all the elected political parties and the bulk of civil society behind him. Keeping the dharna going gave Qadri time to plan a strategy while remaining in the limelight. With attendance dropping from the thousands to hundreds — particularly after religious holidays like Eid — and with Muharram on the horizon promising that more people would leave, it seems Qadri knew that either he would have to end the sit-in or then start addressing a crowd of dozens, if that. His declaration last month that his party would contest elections was a sign of this and showed that Qadri is aware of the limitations of protest. His demand for the PM’s resignation was predicated on being able to force the military to intervene, and failing that, the PAT leader knew that he would either have to accept a face saving exit or then prepare his party for a new direction. His other demands, some of them reasonable, were mostly accepted by the government and though Qadri says no deal has been struck, Nawaz Sharif’s order to his party’s members to refrain from making derogatory remarks about the PAT certainly indicates that some sort of accommodation has been reached. The protest has put Qadri on the map, but whether he will be able to translate airtime into votes remains to be seen.
With the decision to go nationwide, the PAT and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) appear to have a connection, but the end of Qadri’s dharna has effectively parted the Siamese twins and one could say this was inevitable. Imran Khan’s demands prior to his partnership with Qadri were focused on achieving power within the current system, while Qadri wanted an overhaul of the system. ‘Revolution’ was not Imran’s agenda, and elections were not Qadri’s. Their only meeting point was the PM’s resignation, failing which they did not have much in common. Today the parties’ differences are clearer. Fundamentally it was unlikely that two personality-driven parties led by their respective demagogues would be able to cooperate for more than a short space of time. Imran and Qadri both want power for themselves, not for each other. The division is highlighted by the fact that Imran has not called off his dharna and continues demanding the PM’s resignation, though if the dharna did not sufficiently pressurise the government to capitulate, it is unlikely rallies will. They will necessarily lose steam as well with the passage of time. Ironically, over the course of the Islamabad sit-in, the positions have reversed, with Imran demanding a change in the nizam (system) and Qadri deciding to contest elections. The tragedy is that the PTI had a strong position prior to the dharna, which it has squandered, while the PAT has suddenly become a possible election contender. Qadri piggy-backed on Imran’s popularity to build his own and his future looks brighter while the PTI leader is struggling to find a face saving exit from his maximalist demands.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Pakistan: One dharna down
Tahirul Qadri’s dharna (sit-in) has finally ended after 67 days of torture that proved in the end to be a waste of time. The Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) leader made the announcement at D-Chowk, Islamabad on Tuesday, saying he would continue his ‘revolution’ by holding rallies nationwide. He told his followers that they should not see the decision as a defeat, but as part of the process of revolution, a concept he has tried to sell without any clear definition of its meaning. One cannot say his sit-in was destined to fail or that its outcome was inevitable. There were moments where the actions of Qadri and his supporters seemed like they might succeed in forcing the government into a desperate corner or creating a situation where the military would take extraordinary action. However, after the cleric ran and hid in his car while sending women and children to be teargassed, and after the ransacking of the PTV office in Islamabad was found to be the work of PAT supporters, the dharna lost any moral sheen it may have had in the eyes of the wider television watching audience.
Effectively the dharna ended over a month ago. After August 30 it was unlikely the prime minister (PM) would resign with nearly all the elected political parties and the bulk of civil society behind him. Keeping the dharna going gave Qadri time to plan a strategy while remaining in the limelight. With attendance dropping from the thousands to hundreds — particularly after religious holidays like Eid — and with Muharram on the horizon promising that more people would leave, it seems Qadri knew that either he would have to end the sit-in or then start addressing a crowd of dozens, if that. His declaration last month that his party would contest elections was a sign of this and showed that Qadri is aware of the limitations of protest. His demand for the PM’s resignation was predicated on being able to force the military to intervene, and failing that, the PAT leader knew that he would either have to accept a face saving exit or then prepare his party for a new direction. His other demands, some of them reasonable, were mostly accepted by the government and though Qadri says no deal has been struck, Nawaz Sharif’s order to his party’s members to refrain from making derogatory remarks about the PAT certainly indicates that some sort of accommodation has been reached. The protest has put Qadri on the map, but whether he will be able to translate airtime into votes remains to be seen.
With the decision to go nationwide, the PAT and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) appear to have a connection, but the end of Qadri’s dharna has effectively parted the Siamese twins and one could say this was inevitable. Imran Khan’s demands prior to his partnership with Qadri were focused on achieving power within the current system, while Qadri wanted an overhaul of the system. ‘Revolution’ was not Imran’s agenda, and elections were not Qadri’s. Their only meeting point was the PM’s resignation, failing which they did not have much in common. Today the parties’ differences are clearer. Fundamentally it was unlikely that two personality-driven parties led by their respective demagogues would be able to cooperate for more than a short space of time. Imran and Qadri both want power for themselves, not for each other. The division is highlighted by the fact that Imran has not called off his dharna and continues demanding the PM’s resignation, though if the dharna did not sufficiently pressurise the government to capitulate, it is unlikely rallies will. They will necessarily lose steam as well with the passage of time. Ironically, over the course of the Islamabad sit-in, the positions have reversed, with Imran demanding a change in the nizam (system) and Qadri deciding to contest elections. The tragedy is that the PTI had a strong position prior to the dharna, which it has squandered, while the PAT has suddenly become a possible election contender. Qadri piggy-backed on Imran’s popularity to build his own and his future looks brighter while the PTI leader is struggling to find a face saving exit from his maximalist demands.
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