By Zahir Shah
Recent announcements by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continue to show that the militant group is in disarray.
TTP chief Mullah Fazlullah September 7 expelled Umer Khalid Khurrasani on charges of conspiring against Afghan Taliban supreme commander Mullah Muhammad Omar and having links to shadow militant organisations.
The TTP’s announcement came weeks after Khurrasani left the group. On August 26, he announced his decision to leave and to form a splinter group, Jamatul Ahrar.
A rift among the TTP commanders regarding the group’s ideology and accusations of some commanders’ misuse of TTP funds caused them to leave, he said in a video sent to Central Asia Online and posted to social media.
Jamatul Ahrar claims to have support from other like-minded commanders in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Malakand Division.
The future of TTP, splinter groups
Analysts have provided a great deal of insight on how the split happened and what it means for the TTP and its splinter groups. None of the implications is positive for the TTP, they said.
The rift resulted from the military’s counter-insurgency Operation Zarb-e-Azb, Others attribute it to infighting within the TTP, as seen in local commanders fighting in South Waziristan.
The open allegations against each other clearly show the feuding commanders had an open ideological divide, defence analyst Gen. (ret.) Talat Masood said.
“They are now openly accusing each other of deviating from their true ideology, which has caused their internal destruction,” he said. “It’s no doubt a serious blow.”
Rift helps authorties
Authorities stand to benefit from the rift, FATA security secretary Brig. (ret.) Mehmood Shah said, because the break-up has created loosely-organised groups of militants whom troops can easily hunt down, he explained.
It also has weakened militants operationally, he said, adding that, once the Mehsud and Sajna factions began fighting, they denied each other shelter.
Fazlullah himself has less freedom to act because he faces a challenge from Khurrasani as well, Shah added.
And enmity between Khurrasani, a key commander, and Fazlullah will result in more infighting between the Swat Taliban and Bajaur-Mohmand Taliban group, University of Peshawar political scientist A. Z. Hilali said, noting that the only safe route for militants to the Swat Valley must pass through tribal areas under the command of Khurrasani.
The ouster of Khurrasani means the actual TTP led by Fazllullah is now on the decline because it has a new, tough enemy, Hilali said. “It’s likely the [militants] may engage in a bloody war.”
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