Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Pakistan: Collision Course

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) members of National Assembly have submitted their resignation letters to the party Chairman, Imran Khan, who plans to handover them to the Speaker of National Assembly on August 13. The party is busy preparing for the “Azadi March” towards Islamabad on Independence Day, and has denied any possibility of reaching a compromise with the PML-N government. Following the announcement regarding PTI MNAs resignation, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) clarified that the National Assembly will still stand, and by-elections will be held on vacant seats within a period of 90 days. Information Minister Pervez Rasheed took the same line. However, there is more to the move than the ultimate objective of bringing the House down.
If nothing else, it sends a very clear message to the ruling party as well as PTI’s supporters: Imran means business. If the idea is to stand out in rejection of the ‘corrupt system’, what better way than to resign and take to the streets in protest? Imran wants the opposite of what Nawaz wants. Of course, they both want to be Prime Minister, but since one already is, and the other isn’t and doesn’t wish to wait, there can either be a compromise or all out confrontation. Nawaz obviously prefers the former while Imran is counting on the latter to propel him to the very top or at the very least, bring the top man down. Imran has plenty of things going for him. The military is unhappy with the federal government. The courts are no longer being viewed as neutral arbitrators. Certain sections of the media appear more excited about the ‘revolution’ than those who promise to bring it. There is of course Tahir-ul-Qadri and friends and their promise of bringing a ‘Green Revolution’. PAT and allies have announced to observe Martyr’s Day in Lahore on August 10 to pay tribute to the victims of the Model Town tragedy. Mr Qadri also claims to have certain audio recordings which he believes prove Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s involvement in the incident. Not that the government needs anyone else to make its life difficult, it has proved to be quite self-reliant on that account.
But, things aren’t going so well for PTI Chairman in the province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP), where his party is leading a coalition government. Firstly, it’s coalition partners, Jamat-e-Islami (JI) and Awami Jamhoori Ittehad (AJI), have taken a clear position against the dissolution of the KP Assembly, as suggested previously by Imran Khan. In case the PTI members resign from their 55 seats, their coalition partners will have to launch a no-confidence motion against KP Chief Minister Pervez Khattak to keep the provincial assembly intact, putting them in direct confrontation with each other much to benefit of the PML-N. Secondly, several PTI MPAs do not appear all that enthusiastic about the prospect of having to quit power merely after 14 months. What will Imran do now?

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