Did a ‘soft coup’ just happen in Pakistan?

By Ishaan Tharoor

For much of Pakistan's independent existence, the country's politics have been dominated by its powerful military. The generals have a long history of interrupting and meddling with civilian rule. The election last year of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif marked the first time in almost seven decades that Pakistan was able to carry out a peaceful transfer of power between civilian governments.

But the specter of the army now looms large once more. In order to placate heated protests against his rule, Sharif agreed this week to mediation by the army, an institution that is respected by a vast cross-section of society. Pakistan's army chief, Raheel Sharif (who is not related to the prime minister), conducted meetings with the two main protest leaders--the maverick politician Imran Khan and fiery preacher Tahirul Qadri, both of whom have led noisy protest movements this past month and are seeking the collapse of Sharif's government.

But, in return for its intervention, it appears the military has exacted a price from Prime Minister Sharif. According to reports, he has agreed to cede control of aspects of the country's security and foreign policy to the military. It's a difficult situation for Sharif: In 1999, then in his second term as prime minister, he was ousted by a military coup led by then Gen. Pervez Musharraf. Now, the military, in a sense, is once more showing the prime minister who is boss.

"If Nawaz Sharif survives, for the rest of his term, he will be a ceremonial prime minister—the world will not take him seriously," said Ayesha Siddiqa, an Islamabad-based analyst told the Wall Street Journal. "A soft coup has already taken place. The question is whether it will harden."

Since returning to power last year, Sharif's efforts to both punish Musharraf -- who currently awaits trial -- and entrench civilian power have angered members of the top brass. Sharif also sought to improve ties with India. The Pakistani military, a sprawling institution with its own business concerns and a half a million-strong standing army, finds something of a raison d'etre in its historic rivalry with India. The countries have fought four wars since their independence from Britain in 1947. "If Pakistan and India become normal neighbors," writes Pakistani analyst Mosharraf Zaidi, "the military's influence in Pakistan automatically decreases. The hawks clearly won't go easily."