PAKISTAN: TEN DAYS AFTER ‘COMPREHENSIVE’ OPERATIONS IN NORTH WAZIRISTAN – ANALYSIS

By Dr. S. Chandrasekharan

Though intensive operations against the TTP commenced on 23rd May 2014, the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) formally christened the operation as “Zarb-e-Azb” on 15th of June. This was a week after the audacious attack by the TTP on Karachi International Airport on the morning of 8th June.

The statement from ISPR said that “using North Waziristan as a base, the terrorists had waged a war against the State of Pakistan and had been disrupting our normal life in all its dimensions, stunting growth and causing enormous loss of life and property.”

The Director General of ISPR added that the terrorists had also paralysed life and perpetually terrorised the entire peace loving and patriotic population. He said that the Afghan National Army and the Afghan Border Police have been requested to help and seal the porous border. The irony is that such calls were coming from the other side-Afghanistan to their counter parts in Pakistan till recently!

The Pakistan Army called it a “comprehensive operation” involving air force, artillery, tanks and thousands of ground troops. Unofficial estimates put the number of troops involved as much as 40,000.

Nawaz Sharif accompanied by the Army Chief visited the Hqrs of the Peshawar Corps for a briefing on the continuing operations. Sharif had promised full financial support to ensure success of the operation.

In the absence of independent information, one has to go by the official handouts of the ISPR. There are many varied reports on the casualties inflicted on the militants and adding up the daily figures published do not give a true picture. One report indicates that over 300 militants have been killed so far and twenty-three hideouts destroyed. The figure is high and it is suspected that the numbers in a few cases includes civilians too. On the Army’s side eight have been killed and seven injured.

The reports significantly refer to the casualties inflicted on the foreign militants mainly the Uzbeks and the Uighurs but not to the Pashtuns. The attempt appears to be to indicate that the whole operation is directed against the foreign elements who had taken asylum in Pakistan and who are now responsible for the terrorist acts and disturbing the peace in the area.

The operation has unfolded a huge human tragedy that is yet to be assessed. The ISPR reports indicate that a total of 454,207 have registered themselves officially for evacuation and the figure is expected to rise to 600,000 in the next few days. The Official Bulletin admits that over 80 percent of the population of Miramshah and Mir Ali have left their homes. The road Bannu-Miramshah is choked with thousands of displaced persons that include many women and children. Surprisingly the authorities (FDMA- Fata Disaster Management Authority) have made no request for humanitarian aid from international agencies.

Since media is not allowed in the operational area, the extent of civilian casualties could not be ascertained and one has to depend on the official channels that are silent on this subject. Only for the past day or two, channels like Geo are gathering courage to report on specific instances of civilian casualties. Two cases were reported on 24th- the first was the death of seven civilians including women and children in Meraban Khel area when a mortar shell hit them. The second was the death of a family of six who were killed in an air strike at Pak Darra area of Tehsil Jamrud. The civilian casualties should have been enormous considering the fact that the operation is being mainly concentrated on air strikes on suspected concentrations of the militants.

It is made out in Pak press that US had been unsuccessfully pressurising the Pak army to act against the militants in North Waziristan for quite some time and that it is being done now. From the trends available, it looks that the Pak operation was independent of US pressure.

The US on its part had conducted three drone strikes for the first time this year- one on the 11th June and two more on 18th June. One of the targets was on the Haqqani group and the other two were against TTP . The strike near Miranshah killed four while the strikes on 18th killed another 16 that included four Uzbeks and 2 Punjabi Taliban. There has been no information on further strikes.

The Governor of KPK pointed out that effectiveness of operation would largely depend on how highly the Afghan authorities would seal the border. Reports indicate that the bulk of the militants have already escaped to Khost and Kunar Province. Afghan President Karzai has promised complete co-operation for ensuring the success of the operations.

Another point the Pak Governor made was the need for US to coordinate its operations with the Pakistan Army along the border which he said was not forthcoming.

The TTP has continued to be defiant. Two recent incidents indicate that their strength has not diminished and that they would continue to operate despite the “total war” launched against them. One incident was the case of suicide bombing when a single cabin explosive laden vehicle exploded when it was stopped at a check point and two security personnel were killed. The other was more daring ( 24th June)- when the militants fired at a PIA Aircraft with its passengers that was landing at the Bacha Khan Airport of Peshawar. Two flight Stewards and one woman were injured. The woman succumbed to the injuries later.

Some Observations can be made on the operations that have been going on so far:

The Pakistan Army has relied on the familiar pattern of aerial bombing followed by ground sweeps- a pattern similar to what they did in south Waziristan a few years ago. The ground operations that would sweep the entire area are said to follow in a day or two. This kind of an operation may succeed in the short term of keeping the area clear of the militants, but may not be so in the long term.

Though no information is forthcoming, the aerial strikes have inevitably caused enormous damage to civilian life and property. Certain areas in Miramshah and Mirpur Ali have been completely denuded of the civilian population. The extent of human tragedy that is unfolding is yet to be understood and the end result would be that the civilian population would bear the brunt of the offensive of the Pak army. The operations in the long run would only alienate the civilian Pashtun population further.

Though all efforts are being made to show that the entire “comprehensive operation” is mainly against the foreign elements, the casualties and the extent of damage in North Waziristan” would only justify the feeling of the majority of Pashtoons that the operations are meant to continue the exploitation of the Pashtuns with the aim of keeping them “perpetually weak and tormented.” The TTP including the foreign elements do not appear to be resisting the ground operations and may have vacated the area. The bulk of the militants may have moved over to Afghanistan in Khost and Kunar provinces and some may even have gone to Karachi where over 4 million Pashtuns have taken up residence. Most of the foreign elements of IMU and the ETIM who have no where to go have already settled down in FATA marrying locally. To make a distinction now that only the foreign elements are being targeted may not work.

The success of the operations would depend upon how successfully the border between N Waziristan and the neighbouring provinces of Afghanistan could be closed. This border all along was kept open by Pakistan to enable groups friendly to them to cross and cause depredations on the other side and return safely. It should have been known to them that open border works both ways and it is Pakistan that will now face attacks from the other side despite the fact that the insurgent group- the Haqqanis- the ones closest to them are still dominant on the other side.

The TTP has so far shown great resilience and have despite the ferocity of attacks from the Pak Army have shown their ability to attack points of their choosing like the one on a PIA plane full of passengers at the Peshawar airport. This situation is unlikely to change in the near future.