By ALISSA J. RUBIN
The Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan announced the final results of the 2014 presidential election on Thursday, making minor adjustments to its earlier estimates and calling for a runoff between the two top vote getters to determine the country’s next president.
The commission set the runoff date for June 14, setting the stage for a new cycle of intense campaigning.
“After reviewing the decision of the Electoral Complaint Commission, it became clear to us that none of the candidates secured 51 percent of the votes and the elections will go to a runoff,” said Mohammed Yousuf Nuristani, the chairman of the commission.
The commission said the front-runner, Abdullah Abdullah, won 45 percent of the votes and that the second-highest recipient of votes was Ashraf Ghani, with 31.6 percent. The third-ranking candidate was Zalmay Rassoul with 11.4 percent. Mr. Rassoul announced that he would support Mr. Abdullah’s candidacy in the second round.
Afghanistan has two electoral bodies: the Independent Election Commission, which oversees the conduct of elections and vote counting, and the Electoral Complaint Commission, which adjudicates complaints. For a candidate to win in the first round outright, he must win 51 percent of the votes.
“My request again of the brave and patriotic people of Afghanistan is to do as they did before, millions of them casting their votes, to go again and cast their votes,” Mr. Nuristani said.
In the first round, 7,018,049 Afghans went to the polls, 50 percent more than in the 2009 presidential elections. Of those, 64 percent were men and 36 percent were women.
Even before the commission’s announcement, there were accusations from Mr. Abdullah of last-minute changes in election rules, of improper counting and of other aberrations. He says that he believes he received more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round and should not have to go through a runoff.
His campaign is also upset by the long period between the final results and the runoff, which leaves time for fraudulent activities as well as the potential for fanning ethnic tensions. Mr. Ghani, a Pashtun, could use his ethnicity to push more Pashtuns, who are the plurality in Afghanistan, to vote for him. While Mr. Abdullah also is partly Pashtun, he is more often identified with the Tajik ethnic group.
Mr. Ghani, who lagged in the voting by more than 13 percentage points, will probably benefit more from the extra time, but for both candidates, persuading voters to come out to vote a second time could be difficult, particularly in unstable areas.
And for the ultimate winner, it will be important to have a significant margin of victory, said a former adviser to one of the campaigns.
“There has to be a mega gap between the winner and the loser for the winner to have a mandate and for the loser not to turn into a sore loser and create a crisis,” the former adviser said. “If it ends up being 52-48 or 50-48, then that’s not accepted — three percent is a margin of error in this country.”
However, it is always difficult to predict how people will vote, and Afghans surprised leaders in the first round of voting, with many in Pashtun areas supporting Mr. Abdullah, while some of those viewed as likely to support him turned out for Mr. Ghani.
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Results Force Runoff in Afghan Presidential Election
By ALISSA J. RUBIN
The Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan announced the final results of the 2014 presidential election on Thursday, making minor adjustments to its earlier estimates and calling for a runoff between the two top vote getters to determine the country’s next president.
The commission set the runoff date for June 14, setting the stage for a new cycle of intense campaigning.
“After reviewing the decision of the Electoral Complaint Commission, it became clear to us that none of the candidates secured 51 percent of the votes and the elections will go to a runoff,” said Mohammed Yousuf Nuristani, the chairman of the commission.
The commission said the front-runner, Abdullah Abdullah, won 45 percent of the votes and that the second-highest recipient of votes was Ashraf Ghani, with 31.6 percent. The third-ranking candidate was Zalmay Rassoul with 11.4 percent. Mr. Rassoul announced that he would support Mr. Abdullah’s candidacy in the second round.
Afghanistan has two electoral bodies: the Independent Election Commission, which oversees the conduct of elections and vote counting, and the Electoral Complaint Commission, which adjudicates complaints. For a candidate to win in the first round outright, he must win 51 percent of the votes.
“My request again of the brave and patriotic people of Afghanistan is to do as they did before, millions of them casting their votes, to go again and cast their votes,” Mr. Nuristani said.
In the first round, 7,018,049 Afghans went to the polls, 50 percent more than in the 2009 presidential elections. Of those, 64 percent were men and 36 percent were women.
Even before the commission’s announcement, there were accusations from Mr. Abdullah of last-minute changes in election rules, of improper counting and of other aberrations. He says that he believes he received more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round and should not have to go through a runoff.
His campaign is also upset by the long period between the final results and the runoff, which leaves time for fraudulent activities as well as the potential for fanning ethnic tensions. Mr. Ghani, a Pashtun, could use his ethnicity to push more Pashtuns, who are the plurality in Afghanistan, to vote for him. While Mr. Abdullah also is partly Pashtun, he is more often identified with the Tajik ethnic group.
Mr. Ghani, who lagged in the voting by more than 13 percentage points, will probably benefit more from the extra time, but for both candidates, persuading voters to come out to vote a second time could be difficult, particularly in unstable areas.
And for the ultimate winner, it will be important to have a significant margin of victory, said a former adviser to one of the campaigns.
“There has to be a mega gap between the winner and the loser for the winner to have a mandate and for the loser not to turn into a sore loser and create a crisis,” the former adviser said. “If it ends up being 52-48 or 50-48, then that’s not accepted — three percent is a margin of error in this country.”
However, it is always difficult to predict how people will vote, and Afghans surprised leaders in the first round of voting, with many in Pashtun areas supporting Mr. Abdullah, while some of those viewed as likely to support him turned out for Mr. Ghani.
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