Sunday, April 20, 2014

Pakistan: End of ceasefire by TTP

The TTP has announced its decision not to extend the ceasefire, saying it would keep the dialogue option open provided the government took steps indicating "clear progress" on its two key demands. The demands, described as "reasonable and concrete suggestions" by the Taliban spokesman to which, he said, the government had not bothered to respond, are creating a 'peace zone' and release of non-combatant prisoners. He also alleged that the government response to "a gift of 40-day ceasefire by the TTP" was to launch "operation root out" in which more than 50 Taliban fighters were killed. And that over 200 people were arrested for alleged links with the TTP, more than 25 search operations carried out against his side, and prisoners tortured.
The ostensible justification for the 'reasonable suggestion' of a peace zone is to facilitate meetings between the two sides' negotiating teams. Towards that end, the Taliban want the security forces to vacate Makeen and Laddah in South Waziristan that they had wrested back from the militants in a painstaking, costly operation. There is no way the government can allow the Taliban move back in, and erode its own writ. As regards the prisoners issue, the government has already released, inviting much public criticism, some 19 non-combatants. The Taliban say these are not the people they sought, but are yet to provide the specific details about the non-combatants they want to be freed. Nor have they done any known act of reciprocity. Kidnapped civilians that include administrative head of the Peshawar University and sons of two politicians remain in their custody. The arrests and search operations the TTP spokesman mentioned, apparently, were part of the ongoing security action in Karachi, which is not Taliban-specific but all criminal elements involved in violent crimes in the city. The veracity of Taliban version about the killing of 50 fighters cannot be established. Even if true, that should not be surprising considering that the security forces' stated position all along has been that they will retaliate if they are attacked. The day before the declaration of ceasefire end, the forces had to react to an IED explosion near a checkpost near Miranshah in North Waziristan that left a soldier injured. Retaliation was swift and strong. Helicopter gunships attacked militant hideouts in the area. It is not known if any militants were killed. But incidents such as this will, and should, invite attacks on TTP fighters.
The obvious question after the ceasefire ends is; what next? Will the Taliban start attacking, like they have been, innocent people all over the country? The Prime Minister had declared at the outset that talks and attacks cannot go together. In any case, if any of the groups resorts to a terrorist strike the government will be under pressure to take out these violent men. An optimistic view of the situation suggests that although the negotiations process has not produced the desired results, it may have provided the government a better understanding of who from amongst the 40 odd groups operating under the TTP umbrella are reconcilable. This would surely be useful in developing a strategy to separate them from the irreconcilable ones with ideological agenda of their own. One in the latter category, of course, is Omar Khorasani-led Mohmand Agency-based group which in an extreme act of barbarity beheaded 23 FC soldiers and played football with their severed heads. Khorasani, in fact, had announced ending ceasefire at least two weeks before the present TTP decision. Such people will have to be eliminated sooner or later through the use of force. Hopefully, the Cabinet Committee on National Security during its Thursday's meeting formulated a firm plan to deal with such violent men.

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