On March 18 Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty with the Crimean and Sevastopol delegations to accept the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol as part of Russian territory. As the situation becomes more complex, and in the face of political pressure from the US and Europe, it is inevitable that people will ask what cards Russia is holding.
Many believe that the Ukrainian opposition clearly has the support of the West in its protests and demonstrations; and Viktor Yanukovych's deal with the opposition and his removal from the presidency was obviously a loss of face for Russia. Nevertheless, the importance of Ukraine to Russia goes far beyond its importance to either the U.S or Europe. And it seems that Russia has turned the situation to its advantage.
The West has continued to warn that Russia will pay a high price for its actions, and the bill may well be presented in the form of concellation of the G8 Summit to be held in Sochi. Barack Obama has also said that the U.S. will unite with European countries to make Russia pay. But to a large extent these threats are gesture politics. The truth is that the U.S. and Europe don’t have much of a hand to deal with the Ukraine issue.
Russia is a powerful country, and there are too many difficulties that cannot be solved without Russian support. Even after the Crimean referendum, Barack Obama was still looking for diplomatic ways to resolve the crisis in accordance with the mutual interests of Ukraine and Russia.
From the economic perspective, Russia continues to implement diversified strategies and to attach importance to its economic connections with the other BRICS. In contrast, the trade volume between the U.S. and Russia now is less than US $50 billion - even if the U.S. imposes sanctions against Russia they will have little impact. Europe is more reliant on Russia than the converse.
In military terms Russia has the most powerful nuclear arsenal. Although the U.S. and Europe have strong forces, there is almost no likelihood of military confrontation between them.
Basically, the Ukraine crisis had its origins in the internal struggle among its parties, prior to becoming part of the geopolitical game between Russia and the U.S. and Europe. Resolving this kind of international problem means finding a compromise based on exchange and mutual concession, and creating a balance of interests. There may be clearer hints as to how that compromise and balance will be reached after the Ukrainian presidential election in May.
Saturday, March 22, 2014
What cards is Russia holding?
On March 18 Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty with the Crimean and Sevastopol delegations to accept the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol as part of Russian territory. As the situation becomes more complex, and in the face of political pressure from the US and Europe, it is inevitable that people will ask what cards Russia is holding.
Many believe that the Ukrainian opposition clearly has the support of the West in its protests and demonstrations; and Viktor Yanukovych's deal with the opposition and his removal from the presidency was obviously a loss of face for Russia. Nevertheless, the importance of Ukraine to Russia goes far beyond its importance to either the U.S or Europe. And it seems that Russia has turned the situation to its advantage.
The West has continued to warn that Russia will pay a high price for its actions, and the bill may well be presented in the form of concellation of the G8 Summit to be held in Sochi. Barack Obama has also said that the U.S. will unite with European countries to make Russia pay. But to a large extent these threats are gesture politics. The truth is that the U.S. and Europe don’t have much of a hand to deal with the Ukraine issue.
Russia is a powerful country, and there are too many difficulties that cannot be solved without Russian support. Even after the Crimean referendum, Barack Obama was still looking for diplomatic ways to resolve the crisis in accordance with the mutual interests of Ukraine and Russia.
From the economic perspective, Russia continues to implement diversified strategies and to attach importance to its economic connections with the other BRICS. In contrast, the trade volume between the U.S. and Russia now is less than US $50 billion - even if the U.S. imposes sanctions against Russia they will have little impact. Europe is more reliant on Russia than the converse.
In military terms Russia has the most powerful nuclear arsenal. Although the U.S. and Europe have strong forces, there is almost no likelihood of military confrontation between them.
Basically, the Ukraine crisis had its origins in the internal struggle among its parties, prior to becoming part of the geopolitical game between Russia and the U.S. and Europe. Resolving this kind of international problem means finding a compromise based on exchange and mutual concession, and creating a balance of interests. There may be clearer hints as to how that compromise and balance will be reached after the Ukrainian presidential election in May.
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