Sunday, March 23, 2014

Russia, Crimea and Afghanistan

The recent development in Eastern Europe and the role of Russia in Syria has once again sent a powerful message to the world that the US will no more be the sole driver of international politics. President Hamid Karzai has made it public that Kabul respects the decision of the people of Crimea to reunite with Russia. His comments made headlines after the March referendum where 96 percent of voters opted to join the Russian Federation. It’s a powerful message to the US and it allies that the world is no more their under their hegemony. Karzai made it clear that Kabul respects free will of the people of Crimea and Sevastopol to decide their own fate, their own future. Since Afghanistan has been bearing the brunt of decades long wars and violence and knows what free will means and how much hard it is to gain it therefore it supports free will across the world.
Afghanistan, unfortunately, has been a victim of international foreign policy games, strategic interests and military interventions from world major powers like then USSR and current day world United States. Since the fall of the Taliban in 2001, Russia has provided only token aid to the security and development efforts in this country. It has seen the US and NATO presence in Central Asia and a potential threat. However, it has found a good opportunity in post-withdrawal Afghanistan. Despite the resistance and claims by the West that it will never accept Crimea’s accession to Russia, Afghanistan and many other nations of the world backed the decision made by the people of Crimea. Besides that during the past 10 years Russia’s role in Afghanistan is something that cannot be called worth appreciation however during the past two years has upped its role and as US war ends, Moscow returns to Kabul with a series of investment projects.
The people of Afghanistan will ever remain in debts to Moscow for the construction of Salang tunnel and Microryan residential complex in Kabul. Though, the Cold War era has unleashed all of sudden and Kabul needs to tread carefully, but it doesn’t mean it shouldn’t support self-determination and free will. If once again the US leaves Afghanistan in shambles like it did in post USSR withdrawal in 1990s, it will be a greatest challenge for Russia to cope with as it will strengthen hardline Islamist groups and probably more use of facilities for training volunteer that will affect Russian and Central Asian security. Pakistan once again will cash the US cold war with Russia and will never hesitate to contain Pashtun irredentism inside Afghanistan and Pakistan. After its withdrawal from Afghanistan, Moscow shifted its focus towards Iran, Iraq, and the Gulf, but it cannot overlook Afghanistan and Pakistan altogether.
China also cannot stay irrelevant as it is concerned about the security situation the region—Afghanistan and Pakistan, including the issue of external support to Uyghur separatists and narcotics smuggling into Western China. China has been pursuing a policy of non-intervention but in the recent past it has provided Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) personnel a variety of non-lethal, China-based training to enhance Kabul’s security and stability. China’s role has been upped particularly since 2008. China also arranged training for the Afghan National Police (ANP) at People’s Armed Police municipal training facilities. The training included core policing skills, crowed and riot control, criminal investigations and internal security duties. China has also offered advanced military courses to ANSF officers at People’s Liberation Army military colleges and universities. If Moscow could support Assad’s regime against West-supported Syrian rebels, Egyptian army chief Abdel Fatah al-Sissi, whose relations with Washington has been at lowest ebbs since his military coup last summer, re-annexing Crimea and other development, it means it could play an effective role if the US prefers for zero option. The US has been continuously threatening Afghanistan that it will pull out all its troops, suspend its aid and leave Afghanistan all alone if Kabul fails in signing the bilateral security agreement—BSA. In such a case all eyes will turn to Moscow once again.
http://www.afghanistantimes.af/news_details.php?id=6291&&cid=4

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