Though both the Taliban peace committee members and the government ministers are making hopeful noise regarding the prospects of a final peace settlement, the fact is that insiders tell of a very different story.
It is more than tat for tat from the TTP side. Firstly, it has agreed to release non-militant Pakistanis like VC Ajmal Khan only in exchange for the freedom of three Taliban fighters. Secondly, they say Shahbaz Taseer son of slain governor Sulman Taseer and Ali Haider Gilani son of former prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani are are in the custody of foreign fighters, as such, the TTP cannot effect their release since the foreign militants are not under their control. It means the Pakistan has to make separate agreements with foreign militants to get the two freed.
Thirdly, the Taliban by applying some twisted logic, have declared the teenagers trained and sent by them to kill as non-combatant and are demanding their release from Pakistani jails. Fourthly, there are some women on the Taliban list which they want to be freed from Pak prisons while the government officials claim there are no Taliban women in custody. It would be not possible for us to prove such negative like that. Fifthly, they want a safe-zone in Shaktoi area in South Waziristan where they can come and go without the fear of being arrested or attacked by the Pak Army. Here again the logic is twisted, for large territories are not needed for negotiations, as the talks are not to be held by all the fighters whole armies but a few individuals from Taliban side.
It is more likely that once the Pak Army recedes from that mountainous area and the dialogue breakdown, the TTP fighters can take the area swiftly and more so because summer, the faviourite fighting weather of the Taliban fighters, is just around the corner.
That is of course if the talks between the government and Taliban breakdown but talks can linger on indefinitely while the Taliban use the peace zone in South Waziristan for attacks in Afghanistan. No one should think because that part of Waziristan doesn't have borders with Afghanistan it cannot be used for war activities.
Once the Taliban regain control of a part of the South Waziristan, they can extend their influence and integrate it with the north and gain a strategic depth in their fight against any legitimate government in Kabul. However, the suspicion is becoming strong that the TTP eagerness for peace with Pakistan is a prelude to further negotiations to exactly that. It maybe that the TTP's whole exercise of talks for peace may be for that one purpose: to have an understanding with PML-N government it will not carry out terrorists acts in Pakistan in exchange for ceasing terrorism for to carry out attacks from here into Afghan territory.
Our Armed forces victory in South Waziristan was hard earned and should not be thrown away at a vague hope of peace.
Peace or no peace with Taliban, Pakistan should not make a deal which allows militants to carry out armed assaults in the neighboring country.
The Afghans have been complaining that we have been interfering in their country's internal affairs. One of the reasons the Afghan government puts forward for not handing over the TTP chief Molvi Fazlullah to us is that we harbour Taliban inside Pakistan who crossover for attacks in Afghanistan.
While the chances of success of peace talks with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan are slim to none, unless the militants accept the condition that crossing over to Afghanistan for waging war will not be allowed, we will never know of their true intentions.
Islamabad also must be careful to not give more concessions to the TTP as the militants would than seem to be at par with Pakistan government.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar has many times said that the sovereignty of the country will not be curtailed for peace with Taliban. The nation is hoping that it would be so.
If, however, Islamabad makes an underhand deal and accepts unreasonable demands for the sake of peace, the people will not accept it. Also that such deal will make the Taliban even stronger than they are; meaning that they will be able to make harsher demands in the future. It should be clear to the government that Taliban will not accept defeat in their hearts, unless their forces and hopes are completely crushed. We should not pin our hopes high on the prospects of peace as a result of talks.
Saturday, March 29, 2014
Pakistan: Peace at what cost!
Though both the Taliban peace committee members and the government ministers are making hopeful noise regarding the prospects of a final peace settlement, the fact is that insiders tell of a very different story.
It is more than tat for tat from the TTP side. Firstly, it has agreed to release non-militant Pakistanis like VC Ajmal Khan only in exchange for the freedom of three Taliban fighters. Secondly, they say Shahbaz Taseer son of slain governor Sulman Taseer and Ali Haider Gilani son of former prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani are are in the custody of foreign fighters, as such, the TTP cannot effect their release since the foreign militants are not under their control. It means the Pakistan has to make separate agreements with foreign militants to get the two freed.
Thirdly, the Taliban by applying some twisted logic, have declared the teenagers trained and sent by them to kill as non-combatant and are demanding their release from Pakistani jails. Fourthly, there are some women on the Taliban list which they want to be freed from Pak prisons while the government officials claim there are no Taliban women in custody. It would be not possible for us to prove such negative like that. Fifthly, they want a safe-zone in Shaktoi area in South Waziristan where they can come and go without the fear of being arrested or attacked by the Pak Army. Here again the logic is twisted, for large territories are not needed for negotiations, as the talks are not to be held by all the fighters whole armies but a few individuals from Taliban side.
It is more likely that once the Pak Army recedes from that mountainous area and the dialogue breakdown, the TTP fighters can take the area swiftly and more so because summer, the faviourite fighting weather of the Taliban fighters, is just around the corner.
That is of course if the talks between the government and Taliban breakdown but talks can linger on indefinitely while the Taliban use the peace zone in South Waziristan for attacks in Afghanistan. No one should think because that part of Waziristan doesn't have borders with Afghanistan it cannot be used for war activities.
Once the Taliban regain control of a part of the South Waziristan, they can extend their influence and integrate it with the north and gain a strategic depth in their fight against any legitimate government in Kabul. However, the suspicion is becoming strong that the TTP eagerness for peace with Pakistan is a prelude to further negotiations to exactly that. It maybe that the TTP's whole exercise of talks for peace may be for that one purpose: to have an understanding with PML-N government it will not carry out terrorists acts in Pakistan in exchange for ceasing terrorism for to carry out attacks from here into Afghan territory.
Our Armed forces victory in South Waziristan was hard earned and should not be thrown away at a vague hope of peace.
Peace or no peace with Taliban, Pakistan should not make a deal which allows militants to carry out armed assaults in the neighboring country.
The Afghans have been complaining that we have been interfering in their country's internal affairs. One of the reasons the Afghan government puts forward for not handing over the TTP chief Molvi Fazlullah to us is that we harbour Taliban inside Pakistan who crossover for attacks in Afghanistan.
While the chances of success of peace talks with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan are slim to none, unless the militants accept the condition that crossing over to Afghanistan for waging war will not be allowed, we will never know of their true intentions.
Islamabad also must be careful to not give more concessions to the TTP as the militants would than seem to be at par with Pakistan government.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar has many times said that the sovereignty of the country will not be curtailed for peace with Taliban. The nation is hoping that it would be so.
If, however, Islamabad makes an underhand deal and accepts unreasonable demands for the sake of peace, the people will not accept it. Also that such deal will make the Taliban even stronger than they are; meaning that they will be able to make harsher demands in the future. It should be clear to the government that Taliban will not accept defeat in their hearts, unless their forces and hopes are completely crushed. We should not pin our hopes high on the prospects of peace as a result of talks.
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