India must tread carefully on Afghanistan policy

Mir Ayoob Ali Khan

Shamila Chaudhary, a senior South Asia fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington, says, "Whatever the Indian presence in Afghanistan, it gets translated in Pakistan into this fear of encirclement...Because of that, Pakistan thinks, 'We must support certain Afghan groups, we should make sure the government in Kabul is not too pro-India, and indirectly support groups that can, if need be, conduct violence against Indians in Afghanistan.''

Choudhary is right on the dot. A hard reality has begun to stare in the face of India as the Nato forces prepare to leave the war-ravaged Afghanistan in the next few months.

India's relations with Afghanistan run deep and wide. Historically, numerous invasions into India came from Afghanistan. But speaking of the modern history it can be said that "Afghanistan mein Hindustan ka sikka chalta tha" or the voice of India reigned in that country.

Things began to change from 1979 when Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and New Delhi decided to back it. All through the years of Soviet occupation and following its withdrawal, India was supporting the governments in Kabul. India believed in the friendship with Soviet Union and refused to see what was coming. As a result India hardly had any friends among the Mujahideen groups who were fighting against the Soviets and their puppet regimes with generous doses of support from the US, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Finally, Mujahideen took over the reins of realm in Kabul in 1992. Four years later the situation worsened when the Pakistan backed Taliban threw out the warring Mujahideen and captured Kabul. They held on to power for five years. In 2001the US launched a war on Afghanistan in alliance with Nato forces. Their ally on the ground was Northern Alliance, an anti-Taliban group led by Ahmed Shah Masood. The was to dethrone Taliban and hunt down Osama Bin Ladin, the man who it said was the masterminded of 2001 twin tower attack in New York. By this time, there was no Soviet Union, and India had become friends with the US. This was also the time when Washington was on the lookout for a powerful regional ally who could chip in its might to rebuild Afghanistan. New Delhi fitted that requirement and joined in the US game with the belief that it will lay deep foundation for a long lasting friendship with Kabul. India began building its relations brick by brick with Afghanistan. In the last about 10 years Indian has invested more than $2 billion in that country. It has signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement with Afghanistan and is developing Chabahar port in southeast Iran that would free Kabul from dependence on Pakistan in its transport of goods to other countries. It has opened four consulates across Afghanistan and is involved in 'nation building activities' which include training of Afghan bureaucracy, police and army personnel. There are about 4,000 Indians working on various projects there. But ironically, the geo-political realities have changed on the ground in Afghanistan as well as for the US. President Barack Obama's decision to pull out his country's troops from Afghanistan did not come as a surprise as he was preparing his nation for such an eventuality. But what caused a rude shock to the political pundits was the nod of Obama administration to hold talks with Taliban who had regrouped and reemerged as a force after their rout in Kabul in the last decade. While the US is using all possible channels to neutralize the belligerence of Taliban, India has not yet opened any window for dialogue with them. The hard reality here is Taliban owe their origin and recovery largely to Pakistan. There are reports that if Hamid Karzai, a friend of India, goes out of power following the withdrawal of American and Nato forces, it is Taliban who would take over Kabul. The antipathy of Taliban towards India is a major cause for concern. The series of attacks on Indians, including bombing of the Indian embassy twice in the last about five years, do not help in changing the inkling that more trouble is in store for India. So, what are the options? Beginning of a proxy war with Pakistan? That cannot be ruled out if other avenues are not explored seriously. For instance, India has to convince Pakistan that Afghanistan is as important to its geo-political-economic plans as it might be to Islamabad. This love for Afghanistan must not be used against Pakistan but to create an atmosphere of peace in the region where the three countries-who happen to members of SAARC - could benefit from each other. It is a difficult path but has to be treaded carefully since the alternatives are nothing but perilous.