Strikes on Pakistan can create nuclear holocaust

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/

Pakistani soldier-turned-academic Feroz Khan's book Eating Grass is an insider account tracing the history of Pakistan's nuclear programme — and its survival despite hurdles. Khan, who was involved in formulating Pakistan's nuclear arms control policy, spoke with Sameer Arshad about how Pakistan's nuclear arsenal grew, implications of its nuclear race with India — and how restraints are possible: What explains Pakistan's nuclear programme's success despite sanctions and global opposition? Sanctions and global proliferation regimes were the engines that drove the resolve for the programme — the lighter the punitive response from the international community towards Indian proliferation, the more Pakistanis were determined to meet the non-proliferation challenge. The Indian military's continued pressure on Pakistan also helped.

How this programme created the parity with India Zulfikar Ali Bhutto envisaged?

Bhutto is undoubtedly the Pakistani nuclear bomb's father — even before the 1965 war, he envisioned the only way to offset the strategic imbalance was through nukes. Neither Bhutto, nor the current leadership seek parity with India — Pakistan seeks to balance Indian military might, which was instrumental in dismantling a unified Pakistan.

What has been the extent of the grey market's involvement and Chinese assistance towards Pakistan's programme?

The programme's success was predominantly that of indigenous scientists. It did tap into the grey market, which was opened for nuclear business, and was A Q Khan's genius — this proves if a state is determined, nothing is impossible. The extent of Chinese assistance is grossly overestimated in the western and Indian press, and usually absent in the Pakistani account. It was primarily leveraged to overcome technical barriers, similar to the French assisting Israelis.

How real are Pakistan's anxieties over pre-emptive strikes, including those involving India?

In the early 1980s, India's preventive strikes, as contemplated during Brasstacks, were feasible. Today, Pakistani arsenals have not only expanded but there is a robust security regime. It would be very counterproductive for any country to contemplate strikes — any such notion would result in a nuclear holocaust.

How seriously are pressing internal threats regarded?

There is no doubt about internal threats. Nuclear weapons are the most effectively guarded. Because of these threats, the Pakistani National Command Autho-rity ensures nuclear security is one of the highest priorities.

How do you assess estimates of Pakistan having the fastest growing nuclear arsenal today?

'Fastest growing' is a subjective term with propagandist overtones. There is no clear barometer to measure what is slow or fast, especially considering the grey area between civil and military nuclear programmes. After the India-US nuclear deal, which frees resources for a military weapons programme, it's hard to determine which country has the fastest nuclear weapons capacity. There's no doubt Pakistani nuclear arsenals are growing with both HEU and plutonium production because of the introduction of battlefield nuclear weapons, cruise missiles and a sea-based deterrent. Pakistan will likely face economic restraints, uranium resource problems and re-evaluation of its nuclear diplomacy for other reasons, including its need to balance civil and military programmes.

How pragmatic is Nawaz Sharif's call for ending the nuclear race?

It is very important to resume serious dialogue. Rather than focussing on strategic competition, a cooperative security framework is essential. India and Pakistan must create constituencies for peace where the security paradigm is replaced with trade liberalisation and people-to-people contact. To achieve this, conventional and nuclear restraint — including an agreement on non-use of force and non-deployment of nuclear weapons — is the best way. India and Pakistan should re-enact the spirit of the 1999 Lahore Declaration, as Sharif alluded to in his UN speech.