By MATTHEW ROSENBERG
With less than a year left in his final term, President Hamid Karzai insists that he is eager to leave the presidential palace and lead a quieter life. It turns out, though, he may just be moving next door, to a lavish new home yards from the complex that has been the seat of his power for more than a decade.
According to Afghan officials, Mr. Karzai’s new home will be an old, European-style mansion that, once renovations are done, will be roughly 13,000 square feet. And the scale would befit the new role he is said to desire: guiding whoever fills his old job, as a presidential adviser for life.
As a clue to how Mr. Karzai, 55, might try to retain his influence, and security arrangements, the new estate in the heart of Kabul may be Exhibit A. But Western and Afghan officials examining the political scene here say there are a host of other ways Mr. Karzai is already working to influence the 2014 election. The vote is deemed critical for the Afghan government to keep its hold over the country with the American-led coalition ending its mission next year and negotiations on keeping some foreign forces here after that at an impasse.
Mr. Karzai has consistently placed loyalists in roles crucial to managing and securing the coming vote, raising concerns about the potential for fraud. Most Afghans now in positions of influence owe their jobs, and often their riches, to the president. And even as Mr. Karzai has publicly sought to appear above the fray as presidential candidates have announced their campaigns, it is widely acknowledged that none of them would be in the running if not for Mr. Karzai’s tacit acceptance, or at least ambivalence.
Whether he will be able to handpick a pliable successor is one of the chief questions hanging over the coming election. The conventional wisdom among both the Afghan elite and Western diplomats is that he can, and that whoever he decides to support will become the front-runner, in part because Afghan politics have few of the trappings of a democracy. There are no polls to be dissected, no political parties of any significance, no platforms or policy proposals.
For candidates, what matters “are your networks and allies, your ‘vote bank’ ” — that is, your ethnic or regional base — “and how much money you can liquefy for the campaign,” wrote Kate Clark and Gran Hewad of the Afghanistan Analysts Network in an essay published recently by the research group.
Afghanistan is run on patronage, and Mr. Karzai, who wields sweeping powers under the Afghan Constitution, has spent the past 11 years deciding who gets the best jobs and who gets the most money, with the two outcomes often coinciding.
In many ways, Mr. Karzai has approached the presidency much like an old Afghan tribal chief, a role that his family holds in the Popalzai tribe of the Pashtuns. Even his fiercest critics acknowledge he has excelled largely by doling out favors and cash to keep ethnic, regional and personal rivalries in check and bring old warlords into line.
Fazal Ahmad Manawi, a former election commission chief and no fan of Mr. Karzai, said the country needed him to help the next president manage. All former Afghan leaders have been killed or have fled, he said. “God forbid, if President Karzai leaves Afghanistan, then this will create another problem and achievements will be lost,” Mr. Manawi said.
To skeptics, including some current and former officials within his inner circle, that is exactly the problem. The government is far too centered on Mr. Karzai, and he has solidified his hold over Afghanistan’s electoral machinery in the past year, they said.
He is now carefully weighing whom to back in the race, in hopes of becoming the power-broker-in-chief after leaving office, in the estimation of Afghan officials and some Western diplomats.
Mr. Karzai will certainly have the kind of palatial home needed for the part. The spot selected sits just beyond the grounds of the Arg, a former royal palace that spreads across 83 acres in the center of Kabul and now serves as the presidential seat.
The property is hidden behind high walls and security barricades. Afghan officials familiar with the plans say it includes buildings previously used by the National Directorate of Security, the Afghan intelligence service. The renovation of old buildings and the construction of new ones, including a reception hall, began more than two months ago, said Aimal Faizi, a spokesman for the president.
Mr. Faizi said that the location was selected for security reasons, and that Mr. Karzai would only help the next president if asked.
Omar Zakhilwal, the finance minister, said in an e-mail that the property was being prepared for Mr. Karzai as part of the government’s legal obligations to any former president. Part of the land already belonged to the government, and it was being rented by the United Nations, which cleared out in June. The rest was purchased from a private owner, Mr. Zakhilwal said, adding that the government, not Mr. Karzai, would own the estate.
Mr. Zakhilwal did not provide additional details and declined to say how much the project would cost.
But other officials said the private owner was the family of Mohammad Daud Khan, Afghanistan’s first president. His story provides good reason for Mr. Karzai to seek a loyal successor.
Mr. Khan took office in a 1973 coup that deposed his cousin, King Zahir Shah, and abolished the monarchy. Five years later, Mr. Khan and more than 20 of his family members were killed in another coup.
The cynical view of Mr. Karzai’s postelection plans is that his main goal is to protect his family and others close to him, many of whom have amassed fortunes in the past 11 years.
But a number of people who have worked closely with Mr. Karzai, including some who are now critics, say that he sincerely sees himself as having his people’s best interests at heart and is needed to help ensure Afghanistan’s stability.
In the meantime, he has assiduously placed loyalists in roles crucial to the election.
Last month, Mr. Karzai chose Umar Daudzai, who served as Mr. Karzai’s chief of staff and ambassador to Pakistan, to be the new interior minister. The Interior Ministry controls police officers, many of whom were accused of aiding the substantial vote rigging that marred Mr. Karzai’s re-election in 2009.
Over the summer, Mr. Karzai named nine new members of Afghanistan’s election commission to replace commissioners who had served their terms. Experts said most of the new members have ties to the palace.
Mr. Karzai also resisted a push by Parliament to have foreign experts sit on a separate commission charged with adjudicating electoral disputes. In 2009, the five-person commission included three foreign experts, and it disqualified tens of thousands of votes, forcing Mr. Karzai into a runoff against his top competitor, Abdullah Abdullah, who eventually dropped out of the race.
Mr. Abdullah recently announced he would run again. He is the most prominent candidate to formally enter the race so far, and the leading opposition contender.
But the focus remains on who will emerge from Mr. Karzai’s inner circle. Ashraf Ghani, a close adviser to Mr. Karzai who ran for president in 2009, also announced his candidacy, as did Abdul Rab Rassoul Sayyaf, a former Pashtun warlord accused of involvement in war crimes.
Neither is considered a favorite of Mr. Karzai. Mr. Ghani suggested as much in an interview on Wednesday, saying he had asked the president to remain neutral.
The two names mentioned most often as the president’s likely choices are Qayum Karzai, his brother, and Zalmay Rassoul, the foreign minister, who is seen as polished and palatable to the West, and weak.
Neither has yet registered, and President Karzai has privately said that his brother should not run, according to another brother, Mahmood, and other Afghan officials.
Still, Mahmood Karzai, who has often been publicly critical of his presidential brother, said he thought the president would come around.
Qayum Karzai, he said, would certainly seek guidance from the current president if elected. “No one knows Afghanistan like he does,” Mahmood Karzai said. Whoever President Karzai supports “will have a big advantages.”
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