Pakistan: By-polls results

The by-elections held on Thursday, which media hype had billed as a ‘mini-general election’, produced some upsets amidst a low turnout in comparison with the general elections of May 11. The low turnout comes as no surprise since this is the normal pattern for by-elections. In Lahore for example, the turnout was 40 percent as compared with 60 percent in the general elections. The day started desultorily for vote casting almost all over the country and did not pick up until the late afternoon. One unfortunate aspect of our political culture, barring women from voting at the behest of backward political parties and hidebound reactionary forces in society, was once again in evidence in Lakki Marwat, Nowshera and Mardan. The Chief Justice of the Peshawar High Court took suo motu notice of reports to this effect and ordered the results of NA-5 Nowshera and NA-27 Lakki Marwat withheld until women voters were allowed their right in these two constituencies. Repolling should be held in all those polling stations where women’s votes cast were thin, the Chief Justice ordered, and asked the provincial government to move against people who took the decision of barring women from voting. In these by-polls, 41 constituencies for the NA and provincial Assemblies were at stake. Some of these seats had been surrendered by the winning candidates because they had won more than one seat and after the general elections had to choose which seat to retain. Of the 15 NA seats in the contest, the PML-N won five, PPP three, PTI two, and the ANP, PkMAP and MQM one each. Two results were withheld, as noted above, because of the bar on women’s voting in these constituencies. Amongst the biggest upsets was Haji Ghulam Ahmad Bilour winning back by a big margin NA-1 Peshawar, his traditional seat, which he had lost to Imran Khan in the general elections amidst a wipe out of the ANP, but which the PTI’s Gul Badshah Khan could not hold on to. The PTI suffered a second setback in Mianwali, considered Imran Khan’s hometown, another seat he had vacated after the general elections. These two setbacks point to the problem of charisma versus ‘electable’ candidates. The PML-N, in line with its profile, maintained its hold on Punjab, winning five NA seats in Lahore, Mianwali, Hafizabad, Faisalabad, Sargodha, and most of the provincial seats in the province being contested. However, it too suffered setbacks on two prized provincial seats in D G Khan and Rajanpur, vacated by Shahbaz Sharif and Zulfikar Khosa respectively, losing them to the PTI. The PPP’s poor performance in Punjab in the general elections was reversed to some extent by a win on a key NA seat in Muzaffargarh, where Noor Rabbani Khar defeated Javed Dasti, MNA Jamshed Dasti’s brother. Another heartening result for the PPP was the win on a provincial seat by Jahangir Wattoo, son of PPP Punjab president Manzoor Wattoo, in the family’s traditional stronghold of Okara, a constituency won by the PML-N in the general elections. The PPP also managed two NA seats in its stronghold Sindh. MQM retained its hold on Karachi and urban Mirpurkhas. The PkMAP did not seem to have too much trouble holding on to the NA seat in Balochistan vacated by its leader Mahmood Khan Achakzai. A feather in the PTI’s cap is the win in NA-48 Islamabad, a seat vacated by Javed Hashmi and on which new entrant into politics Asad Umar romped home. Is there a discernible pattern in the results of the by-polls? Does it reflect any trends emerging in politics since the May 11 general elections? What, if any, conclusions can be drawn from the hurly burly of the by-elections? Although it is always dangerous to extrapolate the partial trends of by-elections onto the general electoral picture and try to extract likely trends from their results, nevertheless what can tentatively be said is that traditional strongholds were either held on to, or where they had been ‘disturbed’ in the general elections, seem to have reverted to the ‘devil they know’. The PPP and ANP, after their rough ride in the general elections, can find solace and lick their wounds as a result of their relatively better showing in the by-polls. However, there appears to be little room for complacency on this score. These previous incumbent parties received a royal drubbing in the general elections. Having shed the burden of incumbency (perforce), they may make gains at the expense of the new incumbents, given the grave situation of the country, but this should be regarded as the normal ebb and flow of politics and should certainly not lull anyone to sleep. Much introspection and correction still awaits. So far, at least, the by-polls results notwithstanding, these seem conspicuous by their absence.