Grim realities Poll concerns in Balochistan

AWAY from the media spotlight, the troubles in Balochistan have continued to grow more complex with a disputed election result creating yet more uncertainty in the province. The PML-N, the Pakhtun-orientated PkMAP, the Baloch-nationalist NP and the conservative JUI-F appear set to form the provincial government, but cries of electoral malpractices continue to echo through much of the Baloch areas of the province. The BNP-M and its leader Akhtar Mengal have complained the loudest about a ‘stolen election’ — and embedded in their allegations is more than a kernel of truth. With a dismal turnout — in some areas, no votes were cast because security fears meant polling staff did not turn up for election day duties — and given the pre-election concerns and post-election complaints about an opaque counting process riven with problems, the elections in Balochistan cannot realistically be thought of as free or fair. However — in the Balochistan context there is often a however — there are lessons here for the nationalist Baloch parties too. Yes, Mr Mengal and his BNP-M have contested elections in a hostile environment, but perhaps a case can also be made that the party has grown disconnected from its voters. The National Party, the other moderate nationalist Baloch party, fared comparatively better but the NP’s results too were not stellar. The great unknown before this election was whether the moderate Baloch parties’ claims of enjoying significant support in Balochistan were true or not. Because of the circumstances of the elections in the province, that question cannot be answered conclusively or with much confidence. But, there are enough clues to suggest that the nationalist parties may have failed to keep the people on their side, particularly in the case of the BNP-M whose on-ground organisation and network in the province has declined significantly in recent years — something the party will blame on the security situation. But could the low turnout also be because the nationalists, whether out of fear or marginal sympathy, have not challenged the separatist rhetoric and propaganda, meaning that much public space has been ceded to the insurgents? Grim as the situation in Balochistan is, the focus after an election should be on how to use freshly acquired political capital to improve the province’s security plight. With a strong PML-N government in the centre also in the coalition in Balochistan and with nationalist input in the provincial government, a way forward can be cobbled together. Legitimate electoral complaints aside, Balochistan’s politicians should also focus on the opportunity before them.