Fear and loathing in Pakistan as polls loom

bY: AMANDA HODGE

A PAKISTANI journalist's first-hand account this week of being caught in the latest terror attack summed up the twin furies vexing voters of this nation as it prepares for "historic" May elections. Trapped within a Peshawar court compound on Monday as two suicide bombers stalked the grounds, the Express Tribune reporter had a clear view of the carnage in which four people were killed and 49 injured. It might have been a routine story in this violence-racked country had he not concluded by cheekily thanking the outgoing government for the prolonged blackouts that had been such a feature of its five-year term but, in this instance, kept the television off at home and his mother mercifully ignorant of her son's predicament. Gallows humour is the order of the day in Pakistan as the country faces elections amid a worsening security crisis and spiralling attacks on religious minorities.A week ago today, the Pakistan People's Party-led administration officially dissolved the national parliament, making history in the process by becoming the first democratically elected government to serve its full term in office. If all goes to plan the nation's voters will notch up their own milestone in May by participating in the first transition from one elected government to another. Pakistan's power elite has hailed the occasion as a watershed for its troubled democracy, routinely interrupted by the ambitions of military men since the country was founded 66 years ago - even as dark mutterings persist of a military deferment of the polls. The military says it too supports the democratic process, - a position some cynics suggest indicates just what a parlous mess the country is in. Among those who would rule this nuclear-armed South Asian nation, there is wide support for the imminent elections, though the Taliban and allied militants have made their opposition clear. Yet enthusiasm for Pakistani democracy seems conspicuously lacking among the general population. More than 25,000 people flocked last Sunday to Rawalpindi's Liaquat Bagh - the scene of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto's 2007 assassination - to hear Pakistani-Canadian cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri eviscerate all sides of politics for greed and rampant theft. The moderate Islamic cleric gave a fire-and-brimstone political sermon, exhorting supporters to boycott elections, punctuating his message with regular blasts of a theme song whose lyrics appeared to consist of one word: revolution. Qadri has been largely written off by the political establishment since he brought the capital to a standstill in January to demand political reform, including a ban on politicians with criminal records and loan defaults, and that elections be deferred while a technocrat-heavy caretaker government swept the system clean of corruption. There were predictions his 40,000-strong Islamabad rally outside parliament would result in a "Pakistani Spring", along the lines of the uprisings that have unseated some Arab governments. It was not to be. While the government made some concessions, Qadri failed to persuade former cricketer Imran Khan, another anti-corruption advocate and "change" candidate, to join his rally, and the Supreme Court disallowed his challenge to the election commission. Yet his message - that Pakistan's democracy is a sham, its politicians robber barons, and that the country needs a revolution - is taking root among citizens exhausted by terrorism, poor governance and economic near-collapse. "They say I am trying to derail democracy," Qadri told a rapt audience from behind bullet-proof glass as he reeled through a list of price rises and poor governance. "What democracy are they talking about? The greatest gift this democracy gave us in the last five years is 12 people killed every day in this country. Did God make Pakistan for this purpose? We will all be responsible for this if we keep supporting the system." There was no opposition in the audience that day. "We need peaceful revolution," Irshad Iqbal tells Inquirer after driving more than four hours from Lahore with her adult son to attend the rally. "In this country a few families have all the wealth and power but we want the resources to go to the people. The election commission has no power, the judiciary is not independent, there's no equality." Frahat Dilbat, who came with her three daughters, says: "We need the system to change, not just the faces." Pakistani political columnist Ayaz Amir also has been spruiking for change, using his Islamabad Diary in an English-language newspaper to rail eloquently against the political status quo. He has even suggested Spanish dictator General Franco would have been a better alternative to Pakistan's two likeliest political options - a government led by Bhutto's widower and PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari, or by Nawaz Sharif, a two-time former prime minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (N). "On military coat-tails the one entered politics almost 30 years ago (Sharif) and the other (Zardari) was Mr Ten Per Cent before most youngsters of today were born," Amir wrote of the two leaders recently. "Anything would be better than this farce. For the hundredth time let me press into service that Maoist call to arms: "There is great disorder under the heavens and the situation is excellent." Yet Amir is himself a PML (N) MP for Punjab's Chakwal district and plans to run again if the party will overlook his sniping and grant him a nomination ticket. He tells Inquirer, at his electorate office between Islamabad and Lahore, his constituents will vote for the candidate "who is most likely to win and so can help if they have trouble at a police station or at the local revenue office". "There's no ideological wave," he says, adding voters have been "spoiled" into expecting favours from their local politicians. "Both parties are depressing choices so it really amounts to which is the less depressing," he adds. On that, Amir and his constituents can agree. In the main bazaar of Chakwal - heartland for this election's fancied PML (N) - the consensus is "a pox on both houses" for power cuts, price hikes and job shortages. "We say we're hungry, we have no water or electricity. They say democracy is there. We need democracy, but God save us from this type of democracy," says shopkeeper Munawar Hussain. At a nearby tobacco stall, Mohammad Bashir declares Pakistan was most ably governed under its three military regimes. "Definitely democracy should be strengthened but we need leaders, not these dacoits (criminals) who are filling their pockets," he says. Like so many in Pakistan, Bashir believes another military coup could occur if security continues to deteriorate, making elections too dangerous a proposition. A night earlier at a private gathering of powerbrokers in upscale Islamabad, an influential bureaucrat even predicted a "colonels' coup" would cut through the country's corrupt political ranks. Yet the military has demonstrated a distinct reluctance to seize the reins since its last foray into government under Pervez Musharraf, who was unseated in 2008 by President Zardari amid a show of voter sympathy that many have since come to regret. Already overstretched by tensions on its eastern border with India and ongoing operations against Taliban militants in its tribal lands, the "establishment" - as Pakistan's military and security forces are known - has neither the appetite nor the resources for a takeover. That leaves many wondering why Musharraf, in self-imposed exile over charges relating to Bhutto's assassination, would want to return to contest elections - as he claims he will this weekend. Despite rumours to the contrary, the military has denied the retired general has asked for, or will receive, protection. Chief military spokesman General Asim Saleem Bajwa also dismisses speculation of military intervention in the democratic process, beyond the army's commitment to provide election security. "All these speculations (of a military coup) have been thrown up in the past five years but all of them have died with the passage of time because there was nothing in them," he tells Inquirer at military headquarters in Rawalpindi. "The military is already working out a plan to provide security for elections so it doesn't make any sense to say it will use escalating insecurity as an excuse to defer elections." Escalating violence will be a significant election challenge across Pakistan for voters as well as candidates. The PPP's deputy secretary of information and the Prime Minister's human rights adviser Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar says he has ordered four flak jackets for his campaign and now drives in an armoured vehicle. "In the last five years we have lost Benazir Bhutto, (Punjab governor) Salman Taseer and (minorities minister) Shahbaz Bhatti (to assassination). We hear from intelligence sources there are terror attacks being planned through the campaign," he says. "Of course that's going to create a climate of fear which will affect voter turnout. Candidates' security will also be a major issue." Everyone concedes it's an enormous task. "Security for upcoming elections will be a challenging task," Bajwa says. "We will just have to look at ways to muster strength."