Asif Ali Zardari targeted, Yousuf Raza Gilani exits: Who'll be the next to go?

The targeting of Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari by elements of the country's establishment continues apace with the unseating of his prime minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, by the Pakistan Supreme Court last Tuesday. At a constitutional level, the judgement represents a direct face-off between the executive and parliament, on the one hand, and the judiciary, on the other hand. The initial issue, of whether or not the president enjoys immunity in office under Article 248 of the Constitution, snowballed into a confrontation over the powers of the Speaker to decide on Gilani's eligibility to continue in office despite his conviction for contempt of court on April 26, 2012. The fallout of the Supreme Court's judgement by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, himself recently beleaguered by questions of personal integrity, also has political implications, which will play out in coming days and months. Immediate issues of governance and constitutionalism stem from the order having ante-dated effect, thus invalidating all prime ministerial decisions since April 26. The wider context concerns the direction in which the Pakistan state is headed, the institutional and political face-offs involved and continued uncertainties in an innately unstable, even volatile, situation. Who gains? Who is vulnerable? And who is dispensable? NRO and the memo to the US Two narratives, involving the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) of October 5, 2007, and the memo to the Americans after the killing of Osama bin Laden in May 2011, have intertwined to draw in the army, political parties (notably PPP) the executive and the judiciary. The NRO was promulgated by General Pervez Musharraf as president, to facilitate the return of Benazir Bhutto to Pakistan and its politics at a time when he was involved in a confrontation with Chief Justice Chaudhry. The Ordinance provided selective amnesty for cases instituted for offences between January 1, 1986, and October 12, 1999, i.e., during the civilian interregnum between years of military rule. The NRO represented a deal between the military establishment under Musharraf and its major civilian opposition. But even before Benazir Bhutto could capitalise on it, she was assassinated; fingers pointed in several directions, including the military establishment itself, known to be adept at playing a two-faced game as with the Americans after 9/11. Meanwhile, the changes that Pakistan had seen in increased civil society activism and the face-off between Musharraf and the judiciary led to the military-sponsored NRO becoming a football between the executive under both Musharraf and PPP, and the judiciary. The life of the NRO is indicative: Promulgated on October 5, 2007, by Musharraf Suspended by Chief Justice Chaudhry on October 12, 2007 Revived by Chief Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar on February 27, 2008 Struck down by Chief Justice Chaudhry on December 16, 2009 Subsequent developments led to the Pakistan Supreme Court ordering the prime minister to write to the Swiss authorities to reopen cases against Zardari, Gilani's refusal to do so, his conviction for contempt on April 26, 2012, the Speaker's ruling in Gilani's favour, PILs against the ruling by opposition parties and Gilani's eventual dismissal.