India's Agni-V – a ticket to the Club

Interview with Dr. Raja Mohan of the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, India. What does the successful test of Agni-V signify for India? I think the Agni-V test is a part of Indian effort to build a clearable, minimum deterrent. So, this would involve by necessity the development of a long-range missile. I think it is an incremental, slow advances in India’s overall nuclear weapons program. And it is not directed against anyone but it certainly brings China within the range. And it will eventually give India the capability for a deterrence against China. It is not directed against China in any political sense. Do I get it right that India’s strategy is no strike first? Yes. So, it wants to develop a range of weapons but in small numbers so that it has the road mobile long-range missile, it has an underwater submarine launched missile and it has a deliver weapons. So, it wants to develop a small rangewhich will serve as a credible minimum deterrent. Now if we look at the Pakistani test, what kind of missile have they tested? I think the Pakistani thing doesn’t change anything. The Pakistanis had a deterrence against India for so long but even short-range missiles will do it for them. I think with the testing Pakistan and its army is merely showing that they are also in the game. But it makes no difference to India because they’ve had this deterrent against India for the last two decades. And India’s problem is not the number of Pakistani nuclear weapons, and it is not about the range of its missiles, the problem for India is that Pakistan uses terrorism, under the cover of nuclear deterrent supports terrorism. That is India’s security problem not the Pakistani arsenal. You got to understand this point that our nuclear deterrent would not be in a position to support terrorist organizations in India. Like Russia and China have nuclear weapons but that doesn’t complicate the political relationship. Similarly India acquiring nuclear weapons, I don’t think it is going to change the dynamic of India-China relations which are now on a positive track. But in the case of Pakistan, they use the nuclear deterrent to support cross border terrorism. So, that is different set of issues. Various experts, many are pointing to a kind of buildup of tension. There is no tension at all. In fact our relationships with China are looking up. Indian and Chinese political leaders on recent meetings have agreed to expand the bilateral relationship. So, for the first time we see an expanded engagement between India and China. Similarly on the Pakistani side, at least the Pakistan’s civilian leadership is very keen to expand economic cooperation with India. So, we are beginning to see some good signs in the India-Pakistan relationship as well. So, just to sum it up. Do I get it right that this missile becomes just another deterrence factor and it would actually help build up more constructive relationship between India and China, is my understanding correct? Yes, absolutely. In fact I think in it enables to feel more confident, enables to engage more with China. So, once there is no balance and harmony at the military level I think it will open the door for more economic, political and security cooperation between India and China. Dr. Raja Mohan, thank you so much. And just to remind you our guest speaker was Dr. Raja Mohan of the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, India.